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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Textbook. My concern for the shorts is how poorly the pivot was held. Could very well turn into shakeout continuation on the bigger picture. There is still a chance that with that run they trap enough longs to start running south. But we could base and then climb out. Everyone has been pounded, and they could load and unload at will today. If you hopped into channel mode, what a goldmine.
Author:  zentauro67 [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
EURGBP 4H seems barfing.
Imagen 002.jpg
Author:  Wapen [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
I was waiting for this 1.33 level on EURUSD to be broken. Nice 35 pips in the bag. expect a retrace back to 1.33 until tomorrows trading.
Author:  Pedigree [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
McNish wrote:
Pedigree wrote: If naked trading is focusing on price alone and using anything that assists you in doing so then yes, it is naked trading. There are some 2 or 3 indicators that I will NOT give up.
Very true.

Can we share those indi's and talk about them, ... in the NT dummies thread maybe or elsewhere?
kwanann wrote:Max, Pedigree

You can find the indicator section over at http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... m.php?f=60

I know of many using the SonicR template as a guide
By "indicators" I mean those that actually reflect on price action, and they are the common ones that everybody knows about:
The Weekly Pivots to help guarantee adequate retracements
The CSS Info Page Squiggles to guide with currency strengths
GlobalMarketTrend to give an at-a-glance idea of the state of the market

Besides these are also those that are more of trading accessories than indicators becos they have nothing to do with PA as such.

I might be wrong but I don't think the subject deserves a thread of its own.
Author:  ciliano [ Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
H4 Pins forming on EURAUD? I am watching it and will jump in if the second pin forms in like an hour and a half to two hours. I added a bit of a speculative map. Who knows? I just opened a new demo since I blew up the last one.
EURAUD.PNG
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 12:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
ciliano wrote:H4 Pins forming on EURAUD? I am watching it and will jump in if the second pin forms in like an hour and a half to two hours.
Hi Ciliano

Just a different view of this:
1) We are in the Asian accumulative session = usual volume collecting tricks by fox
2) EURAUD is at a high not seen since 1st July 2010
3) We are probably using brokers with different GMT ... so I while I can see pinning, I can not see Railroad tracks just yet
4) Drop to the 15M. As I write, I can see the beginning of the secon leg of a W ... meaning a buy for at last this leg

I would rather just hold off on this as watch - you have spotted some good things there.

keep also in mind that we have HIGH impact manufacturing data due for release out of China in one hour ... that will have some sort of violent impact on the AUD, and this is something that can not readily be predicted.

With so much pressure pushing the AUD down so far this week, there is bound to be some reversion to the upside at the very first opportunity, imho, so be cautious.

You are correct to wait "an hour and a half to two hours." because we will not only be closer to the ending of the Asian accumulation session, we should see a resolution to the pressure the AUD has been under, and some new price action to assess. Keep an eye on both the EU and the AUDUSD for more clues.

Thanks for posting - this made me dig a bit deeper to see what you are seeing there

Ivan

PS - On my broker I can see pinning beginning on the current 4H candles on AUDUSD - yours may also show this.
Author:  mjws00 [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
AUD longs are VERY tricky right now. I've taken around a thousand pips out of EURAUD in the last few weeks with just a very simple breakout long strat. Take profit a ala CJ, as it retraces, trail a pending long near a swing high... Every time I think it will stop, it tags me in and runs further. Stupid easy.

Asia has been reasonably volatile during these thinner summer weeks. Lots of opps in AUD and Yen Pairs playable outside LON/NY. They've been mixing up the timing on the cycles a bit.

That said we are up ~600 in the first few days of the week. Retrace seems probable. But don't get married to it. AUDUSD the same. I kept playing for the turn, finally just gave in and started selling pullbacks. WAY easier. That said I just went flat after that last big spike.

No reason to ignore the huge move up and potential retrace. Been seeing some crazy spikes and spread on news in thin markets on these pairs.

Good luck,

Mike
Author:  banteka [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
mjws00 wrote:AUD longs are VERY tricky right now. I've taken around a thousand pips out of EURAUD in the last few weeks with just a very simple breakout long strat. Take profit a ala CJ, as it retraces, trail a pending long near a swing high... Every time I think it will stop, it tags me in and runs further. Stupid easy.

Asia has been reasonably volatile during these thinner summer weeks. Lots of opps in AUD and Yen Pairs playable outside LON/NY. They've been mixing up the timing on the cycles a bit.

That said we are up ~600 in the first few days of the week. Retrace seems probable. But don't get married to it. AUDUSD the same. I kept playing for the turn, finally just gave in and started selling pullbacks. WAY easier. That said I just went flat after that last big spike.

No reason to ignore the huge move up and potential retrace. Been seeing some crazy spikes and spread on news in thin markets on these pairs.

Good luck,

Mike

I took AUD SHORT in 3 pairs and LONG in other two. I rode the Asian Session. The reasons were a beautiful BEARISH candle (BULLISH in two pairs) and the abscense of releases in all that pairs. It just could not be a coincidence. If it had not been that candle, I had not taken that ride. This is Naked Trading isn't it?. I have just wake up (I live in Spain) and I saw the Asian range and I have closed all the positions.
Results as follows:
Author:  bluedog23 [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
eur usd h1.png
eur usd h4.png
Nice example of a stop hunt at the end of a consolidation period. A lot of longs probably sold on the drop and new short positions came in. Just as quickly it went straight up wiping out the shorts from a few bars back and new long positions were taken. The longs up in the pin area are now trapped.
Author:  Captain Jack [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 4:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
zentauro67 wrote:EURGBP 4H seems barfing.
Imagen 002.jpg
Indeed it does...nice catch zentauro.... price could rise and form the LH at or near London open and then move down from there...

If confirmed, price usually returns to the lower trend line, where it will bounce or break - Decision Point

I've posted this using a 1H chart...if a new HH is set, then the BARF could form on the 4H, which would mean that the LH is formed now...

CJ
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