10.4 A Complete System

[VirtualFM]

I'm glad everyone is having a blast... It means my money is put to good use, I guess. At least it's not going for taxes!

So... I had an account of about 500€. I screw up sometimes, so the balance goes up and down but I was recovering slowly and yesterday, even with some missteps, I managed to get about 70€ on those JPY trades. So I set up some more trades here and there and went to sleep.

When I woke up and looked at my account I was completely flabbergasted! Where the hell did all my trades go?! The account history was lined of SL hits, all in the red. There were several trades lingering there for some days and so, with the latest news, everything went to the wrong side! This would be funny if it wasn't so tragic, but every single trade, with the exception of AUDCAD, went to the opposite of the expected, and as such, the big jumps from EUR, GBP (specially this one, with GBPAUD/CAD/NZD), CAD, NZDCHF, just killed my account. Even with some recoveries on the JPY, I looked at my balance and couldn't believe I was down to about 70€! This wiped the progress of the last two weeks and am basically reduced to the "great" 70€ from yesterday.

Time to lick my wounds, sleep a lot through the weekend and think about rainbows and butterflies...

[Staedtler]

with all this money coming in . i'm going to have to find a US Accountant who handles foreign exchange tax

[zentauro67]

Japan´s debt problem for dummies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... jp8bKpi-vg

[TraderDesk]

When you trade whether it is 10.4 or basically any other system you should always have a risk management component that is design to preserve your hard earn capital... I know traders who are successful ONLY because they understood how important this is...

Read around to get an idea... I might try to put something together when I have time to post on the sub-forum "Trading Psychology & Money Management" but others have posted there so give it a good look over...

Without it you will not succeed in the long run...

[The_Snowman]

Any explanation for the movements of EURO and AUSSIE today which resulted in three SL being hit ?

Well, for me at least, the AUSSIE just doesn't "know" where it is going, YMMV

[The_Snowman]

When you trade whether it is 10.4 or basically any other system you should always have a risk management component that is design to preserve your hard earn capital... I know traders who are successful ONLY because they understood how important this is...

Read around to get an idea... I might try to put something together when I have time to post on the sub-forum "Trading Psychology & Money Management" but others have posted there so give it a good look over...

Without it you will not succeed in the long run...

Great advice for everyone

Was it directed at VirtualFM or the Japanese Government?

[fx800]

I was waiting for enough retrace to trade 10.4 for yen pairs today but it never happened.

However, NB 10.5 would have done pretty well today.

In the kind of market the yen was today and yesterday, that was a retrace. It was the one I took and traded for my +590.

It was this sort of scenario that killed my account in 2008, when the yen was on its way up, but I did not know enough then to take advantage and protect myself. Massive moves in one direction followed by tiny reverses.

The Japanese government appear to want to devalue the yen. Don't expect long retracements for the time being.

Well done, Steve. I did benefit from stalking the yen pairs yesterday by trading M15 tf knowing that the strong moves north of the xxxjpy pairs means we would not expect much retracement even into next week.

I was merely illustrating that trading NB 10.5 would have made my life a lot easier by just placing pending orders on the daily pivots. It would have gathered several hundred pips yesterday. I did mention in the 10.4 ea thread that you could easily modify the 10.4 ea to trade 10.5 by changing the trading time frame and changing the weekly pivots to daily pivots in the code. The same logic works.

In the meantime, wishing you many more green pips next week.

peter

[tommiho]

The general question here, if someone has a multiple positions open where would someone claim the profit? Where to close them? I am absolutely tempted to leave them be and let them running. But as you all know the turn around PA can surprise you anytime. I know CJ mentioned to keep his anchor trade and close compounded trades. What do you all think? Bob was saying to enter on D1 max min, maybe to close as well? On the other hand nobody knows when this run is going to end.(well when the Japanese reach inflation is 2% of course but I wouldn`t be able to wait that long hehe)

Hmmm... I think your answer will be very subjective to the person answering them. Each trader has their own style...

For me I will close most of the positions that I open during the trend of the day when I see we are close to the ADR of that currency pair... Days like this I will let some of them ride and add more from any pullback that we get... I will also look at the longer-term charts to see if I will leave a few lots open or a major trend. An example is GBP/JPY where it has crossed over to a bullish bias on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Plus we are at a multi-year low. So I am looking for PA on this pair to head up over the next few years so I will leave the odd position or two open and if it heads up add more...

Another method I use is on the 5 minute Heiken Ashi chart if PA goes below the smooth average then I close some of my positions as well...

Different methods work on different currency pairs for me...

BE is a last resort for me and I use that method after I have taken a percentage of profit in the move...

Hi, just gathering some thoughts and forgot to thank you and ask you about ADR. How many days ADR would you use? I use to have it set on 10 days but I saw 3 days and even 20 days. While JPY is going so steep these days wouldn`t the shorter span of days be more telling? Just trying to prepare for the next week.The pivots will be out of place next week as Bob said so the ADR could give me some guidelines how far the move could go.
Thank you

[tommiho]

When you trade whether it is 10.4 or basically any other system you should always have a risk management component that is design to preserve your hard earn capital... I know traders who are successful ONLY because they understood how important this is...

Read around to get an idea... I might try to put something together when I have time to post on the sub-forum "Trading Psychology & Money Management" but others have posted there so give it a good look over...

Without it you will not succeed in the long run...

As I look back on the last trading week I can say the lot sizes, TP setting and GREED CONTROL would be the key.
The flashes of erratic lot sizing will haunt me for weeks.Not that the trades wouldn`t go my way but on a normal week in the end it would have cost me a lot more.I ended up on a positive side but I could have ended a lot better o boy a much better.As soon as I saw that Bob hit the close all orders button, that should have been the signal but the GREED factor was in charge and after that the stop losses.
However let this be a lesson for me, a lesson with the good ending, could have been an other way around.
So:
proper lot sizing
SL
TP
and a will to not to move TP just to grab few more pisp . I know Bob the TAKE YOUR PROFITs BANNER WAS PROBABLY NOT BIG ENOUGH FOR ME.

(And just the thought at the end if I grabbed that much profit which at one point on Thursday night I have, I might just thinn the world is mine and the invincibility feeling might kill me in the days to come.)

So stick to the rules dam it (I am telling it to myself).
Sorry for the expression.

[TraderDesk]

Hi, just gathering some thoughts and forgot to thank you and ask you about ADR. How many days ADR would you use? I use to have it set on 10 days but I saw 3 days and even 20 days. While JPY is going so steep these days wouldn`t the shorter span of days be more telling? Just trying to prepare for the next week.The pivots will be out of place next week as Bob said so the ADR could give me some guidelines how far the move could go.
Thank you

Hi Tommiho,

Nothing is in concrete but I like to take the 10 day value when volatility has been on average otherwise on big moves I go with a 60 day average...

What I do after a big move like the last few days is to apply the HA indi I posted awhile back and set it on the 5 minute time frame... When price action crosses the blue average I have a high probability that the current trend has slowed/leveled/reverse so I will close some my positions there...

ADR I use as well for some of positions as it is a good way to normally wring out those pips for the day...On a strong trending day they are not the best to use so I use the above HA...

Price action for me means everything... All the indi's are lagging as well as providing overbought/sell signals that don't work in a strong trend in that timeframe... ADR reflects price action, Heiken Ashi reflects price action, my neocortex understands price action... So what I look for is to learn patterns in the currencies I trade in. No EA or indi will make me a successful trader but understanding visually the currencies I trade and applying strict risk management rules will have me going in the right direction... In this day and age forex is called a zero-sum market. What I understand is that the big players that trade FX do not do it to make money but to sort out imbalances within the asset classes of their domain. I make money by hitching a ride on their so-call corrections to those imbalances and I take care to float within the largest current monetary flow.

In trading you can use different methods that can do the same thing, just visually look different. For example 10.4 uses the 240ma as a daily directional bias for trades. One of my trading methods is to use HA on a daily TF. Price crossover on the HA is the same as the 240ma. I posted a picture below on the GBP/JPY of HA crossover as well as 10.4. Two different pictures but the same result. It is so important to get to know each currency pair that you trade in...

There are many pieces to trading in FX and it takes time to learn it... 10.4 I believe should be used as a framework and you add the other pieces to it... there are no hard and fast rules except when it comes to capital preservation, at least for me. My opinion only