kwanann wrote: Let's take gbpjpy as marked by mike. Assume price is at the first leg of the w. in order to print the second leg, fox needs to buy first(or is he selling) and then push prices down by selling (or is he buying) until peak low where people start selling and they are taking the counter position(buy).

Once they get the required volume, they will then push price up by selling their positions or buying their positions?

I mean we have always been trading the m and w, I.m just wondering the actual trades that happen for this to happnen

• What are the actual trades that have to happen to print the M or W?
• Why does it work. Over and Over?
• Where is the best place to run this gambit?
• When is this most likely to occur?

mjws00 wrote: I know this was the question that sidetracked us. It is a profound one to think about and difficult to answer.

• What are the actual trades that have to happen to print the M or W?
• Why does it work. Over and Over?
• Where is the best place to run this gambit?
• When is this most likely to occur?

Thinking about this from the dark side is a VERY powerful exercise. Unfortunately my initial thoughts weren't clear enough or succinct enough to post. There is some really cool psychology and positions available to the MM with this formation. With some very interesting points for deception, and places to force errors.

I hope we get a little discussion of this at some point.

Mike

mjws00 wrote:

kwanann wrote: Let's take gbpjpy as marked by mike. Assume price is at the first leg of the w. in order to print the second leg, fox needs to buy first(or is he selling) and then push prices down by selling (or is he buying) until peak low where people start selling and they are taking the counter position(buy).

Once they get the required volume, they will then push price up by selling their positions or buying their positions?

I mean we have always been trading the m and w, I.m just wondering the actual trades that happen for this to happnen

I know this was the question that sidetracked us. It is a profound one to think about and difficult to answer.

• What are the actual trades that have to happen to print the M or W?
• Why does it work. Over and Over?
• Where is the best place to run this gambit?
• When is this most likely to occur?

Thinking about this from the dark side is a VERY powerful exercise. Unfortunately my initial thoughts weren't clear enough or succinct enough to post. There is some really cool psychology and positions available to the MM with this formation. With some very interesting points for deception, and places to force errors.

I hope we get a little discussion of this at some point.

Mike

pips400 wrote:

lilac wrote:I understood this differently, I thought the fox wanted as much volume to their opposite side as they could handle with their funds, once they have enough people wanting to buy AUDUSD they sell it off, and price can drop dramatically as banteka said, traders buys turn in DD or trigger SL becoming sells, sell stop orders are triggered too, the lower the cheaper, so once they have a lot of these volume selling cheap they want to buy it.

I don't think they want volume in their direction, because someone (the fox or other traders) must take the opposite side, becoming a loss or less profit for them, actually I think when they get too much volume to their current side is when they decide to retrace and eat that up.

But maybe I am completely wrong, any thoughts on this?

Hi Lilac, this is how I see it. The MM is like a catalyst to get price moving so they can make money. It initially costs them money to move the market because they are inducing the opposite to where they want to go. But they can't do all the buying or selling themselves, otherwise there's no net gain overall. But if volume represents number of orders then the more the better, because the fox has more than one way to "skin the cat". He'll use the true momentum to his advantage, then shake out all the weak short and longs for a profit, then stop hunt, accumulate and run it all over again, whatever way will make the greatest profit. Also the fox doesn't need to match 100% of the orders and take the opposite side, he'll just provide the liquidity to the broker and long and short retailers can offset each other. Momentum is important to make money, but the fox is a master of efficiency - making the least effort for maximum gain, just like a small rudder can steer a large ship. The fox has got the power to jump in and manipulate at any time, but he'll try to conserve energy and funds as much as possible and use market behaviour, sentiment and the herd mentality to his advantage.

Once direction is established, the herd will follow, sure some will make a profit, but the fox is always one step ahead. Volume means victims one way or another.

Cheers

Pips400

Edit: Volume in their direction, always means the fox can exit any time, but not until he's got the maximum he can make out of the move, because sooner or later retail supply and demand is going to dry up and he's not prepared to fund the move any more. It's these imbalances that's the playing ground for the fox.

mjws00 wrote:I know this was the question that sidetracked us. It is a profound one to think about and difficult to answer.

• What are the actual trades that have to happen to print the M or W?
• Why does it work. Over and Over?
• Where is the best place to run this gambit?
• When is this most likely to occur?

Thinking about this from the dark side is a VERY powerful exercise. There is some really cool psychology and positions available to the MM with this formation. With some very interesting points for deception, and places to force errors.

I hope we get a little discussion of this at some point.

Ingot54 wrote: Most of this was answered in CJ's posts throughout the early part of this thread.

Further, I believe Kwanann has clarified these issues nicely his thread Naked Trading 101

Ingot54 wrote: Most of this was answered in CJ's posts throughout the early part of this thread.

Further, I believe Kwanann has clarified these issues nicely his thread Naked Trading 101

mjws00 wrote: Not one person could answer Kwanann's question. Nor could anyone explain the structure, order flow, or strategy actually used at each point in the process. Banteka's theory does not match CJ's. It does not address the strategy or errors the fox exploits. Mauro scratches the surface, volume analysis might help, but the MAGIC is being missed. No one explained this from the other side of the glass, and that includes myself. I took the red pill... and realized I could write a book on just how to exploit that single structure.Mike

This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, all I'm offering is the truth – nothing more.

mjws00 wrote:

Ingot54 wrote: Most of this was answered in CJ's posts throughout the early part of this thread.

Further, I believe Kwanann has clarified these issues nicely his thread Naked Trading 101

Not one person could answer Kwanann's question. Nor could anyone explain the structure, order flow, or strategy actually used at each point in the process. Banteka's theory does not match CJ's. It does not address the strategy or errors the fox exploits. Mauro scratches the surface, volume analysis might help, but the MAGIC is being missed. No one explained this from the other side of the glass, and that includes myself. I took the red pill... and realized I could write a book on just how to exploit that single structure.

Break down that structure. Tick by tick. What flashes on the 1M chart. What about the 5M. How about on the backside of the 15M candle. Is it a completely different message? Did they play the 15M against the 1H timeframe? Did they confirm the fibs, pivots or MA's to trap? Where did the retails place their stops? How was that liquidity first established, and how/where was that money transferred? Where was the smart money? How did it move?......