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Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute
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Author:  slowkey [ Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

New Package in Post One

It includes two - 60 Secret Bob templates one with CSS and one without CSS. The same applies to the two - 240 Secret Bob templates. There is also an analysis template with all the ribbons. If you do not have enough bars the indicator will not try to load that time period. You will see a message in the left hand corner stating to look under experts to see which ribbon is not loaded. On the lower time periods this will tend to be the weekly ribbon mostly if you have at least a moderate amount of bars. You can see the Gann 10.7 manual to learn how to fix this in my other thread. Higher time period Ribbons are best evaluated on Higher time periods anyway. So if you move up to the 4 hour for instance you will see clearly how they relate to price.

Ok ... so after spending a lot of time in the Fxblue trading simulator looking at the Secret Bob indicator I realized that just like the 10.7 system on the 15 minute we need an intraday trend.

What I mean by this is that we will use the 240 time period to give us a trend to take both counter trend and trend signals in agreement with its 240 trend signal. The 240 trend is not the same as the daily and I suspect the Secret Bob signal is based on a higher trend like the daily. When you get down as low as the 15 minute you have what I like to call intraday trends. I think that the 240_2:1 stochastic does a nice job of pointing these out. The daily trend is 96 times bigger than the 15 minute time period. The 240 is only 16 times bigger. So the 240 picks up on these intraday moves better. If the signal is on the top of the Stoch box it is a bullish signal and if on the bottom of the Stoch box it is a bearish signal for those who are unfamiliar with 10.7.

So going through looking at the signals I found that when you follow the 2:1 stochastic direction you can have more confidence that the trade will succeed. You can also live longer with a trade if the 240_2:1 stochastic remains in the direction of the trade. If you take a trade in the middle of a consolidation it will be less likely to work out. By definition you want to trade toward the center of a consolidation. So out some from the ribbons are good locations trading down or up into a consolidation. In a trend regular trend signals will occur nicely in agreement with the 2:1 stochastic indicator.

We will miss a few good signals and that is where your judgement comes into play. You will see one of those misses on the chart below.
EURUSDM15_240.png
You can see how the yellow checks would work nicely with the signals in agreement with the 240_2:1 Stoch. Whether they are counter trend or trend. We take what the indicator gives us in the direction of the 240_2:1 stochastic.
If Bob at some time releases the code we may find we can adjust the Secret Bob signal better for the 15 minute time period but for now your best trades will be in the direction of the 240_2:1 Stoch.

You can see near the beginning of the chart a nice counter trend signal that would be missed. However there are many more that just would not work at all if against the direction of the 240_2:1 Stoch. Now I do not have an active feed being Sunday early afternoon outside of trading hours. So maybe the signals would not have been missed with an active feed. This is a static chart.

The CSS is there to look at if you want. I will try to incorporate it into the discussion later if we get a strong feel for the basics of trading this on the 15 minute. I did give one example and it might work nice to point out exceptions to the 2:1 signal. However for now I think this will be enough.

So lets talk about counter trend and trend. On a 15 minute chart that takes on a different meaning as you can see by the use of the stochastic. The indicator gives trend and counter trend signals. Using the 240_2:1 for our trend does not change what those signals are called.

This is the exact same thing we did with Gann 10.7 on these very small time periods. We used an intraday trend.

I do not know the coding of this indicator but I am starting to have some ideas. My secret.

I am using just a simple MTF stochastic to do the 2:1 signal. Very CPU efficient I think. I made a change in the code to get it to work with the current version of Empty4 so if any coders out there want to take a good look at the indicator for me I would be delighted. I basically just commented out the problem line. It does seem to work now.

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:24 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

So its a Japan banking holiday so there should not be a whole lot of fire works in the Asian session. However saw this little trade that agreed with the Stoch. Got out with about 8 pips early because the Stoch flipped up but than it flipped back so I could have got about 15 out of the trade.

See where I start at the zero indicator.
gbpjpy_trade 1.png
Really ... I just was anxious to test out the setup in real time. I really have a lot of confidence in the 2:1 Stochastic. By itself it could be used in consolidation along with CSS for setting up pending break out trades. I think the 2:1 is just a fabulous indicator.
trade over.png
In the above you can see how the 15 minute ribbon can get penetrated but look how many time the body of the candle just can not stay beyond that crimson edge. The 15 minute is really tough to get by in any kind of a slight trend.

I have ignored at least 5 other signals which would have been against the 2:1 Stoch and from what I can see they all went no where.

Cheers, :)

Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Good Day to you it is 0630 est or 1130 gmt ... We are still in the London session. So lets look at CSS for the start of the Week. First

Four Hour CSS.
4 hour CSS.png
Wow looks like a good day for commodities. Ah hold on now.

There was a good German Ifo Business Climate report of 104.7 ... They were expecting 103.00

Now lets look at 30 minute CSS
30 min CSS.png
Actually this is what you will see happening in the currency pairs right now intraday. You just have to go through all the pairs and look and that is where we stand near the beginning of the Week. Will the EUR and GBP stay strong in the NY-London session. It may. This is a Holliday week in the US with a long Weekend of Vacation starting on Thursday with Thanksgiving. Friday is what we call here Black Friday the biggest Christmas shopping day of the year. So trading will be effected by these events in the US. Thursday is a US Bank holiday. Tue. and Wed. are the only days this week that will have significant US News releases and that will pretty much do it for the US for the Week with nothing else slated to come out.

There will be significant News coming from the EUR zone, Japan, and the NZD starting in the Asian session Thursday or Wed - US EST Evening. So there will be an interesting dichotomy in trading with the US winding down early this week and the EUR and Asia Sessions set for some significant releases.

So the London session this AM is showing GBP and EUR strength ... I guess CHF is a long for the ride. The only CHF pair I trade is GBPCHF.

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Ok after even more study today as to what is happening with the Secret Bob indicator I have come up with 2 more templates with as before one using the 240 SB indicator and the other using the 60 SB indicator. It would work to trade using the previous indicators how ever we do miss a lot of signals. So I have added a second 2:1 based on the 60 min Stochastic. I think if you look below you will see that the strongest trends have both the 60 and 240 2:1 Stochs in agreement. However the 60 2:1 becomes our counter trend signal to pick out the best counter trend signals from the SB indicator. In reality SB replaces the blue stochastic in 10.7. I do not mean though to say that it is a stochastic signal. I think on a higher time frame it becomes more accurate for a stand alone signal. Bob trades these high time periods.

I think you can see below how I am using the 60 2:1 Stochastic as a confirmation of both counter trend SB indicator signals and as reentry signals confirming either the SB indicator or as stand alone signal in agreement with the 240 2:1 Stochastic. You actually could use just these two Stochastics for trading or a Bot. Still thinking about the second idea.
EURJPYM15.png
Below now you can see I crossed out some signals in a ranging area that were with in the congestion area.
EURCADM15.png
So this a refinement of template 2 which worked just fine but gave us less to work with as far as confirmation. Now we have strong confirmation but there will be a lot of judgement involved. However the 60 2:1 when it reverses back to the Trend gives a nice take profit and reentry signal.

Below are the new templates and I will also add them to post 1.

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:03 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

So we are into the second hour of the Japan session and the Yen is strengthening against all currencies intraday.
EURCHFM30.png
USDJPY trade ...
USDJPYM15.png
Bob was talking about a new indicator that has been developed with CSS as a Strong rule in how it works stated that the run up of the USDJPY is over for now.

Daily below.
USDJPYDaily.png
Looks very over extended in this large hyperbolic move.

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:11 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

So a look at Gann and you can see the 4 hour a nice 75 pip distance down if we can clear the present round number. Hope so with a nice trade in the oven. Looking for 60 2:1 to signal any sign of weakening with this move.
USDJPYM30.png
Cheers, :)

Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:17 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Kuroda speaking now in Japan ...

Kuroda: No change to stance boj won't hesitate to adjust policy if needed to meet 2 pct inflation target

Kuroda: BoJ will maintain QQE for as long as needed to stably achieve its price target

Kuroda: BoJ has been taking action and will continue to do so to achieve price target

Kuroda: Shouldn't stop efforts to shift public's deflationary mindset

Kuroda: Japan's economy showing weaknesses mainly in output

Kuroda: Positive economic cycle is intact as a trend

Kuroda: Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:36 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

I will be taking a rest of the week off to enjoy this Holiday week and weekend.

Have a great week.

Cheers, :)
Doug
Author:  Vlokkies [ Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:45 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Happy Thanksgiving Doug, enjoy the holiday.

Thanks for your posts. I find them fascinating and very educational.
Author:  slowkey [ Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Vlokkies ยป Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:45 am wrote:Happy Thanksgiving Doug, enjoy the holiday.

Thanks for your posts. I find them fascinating and very educational.
Thanks ... Have a nice week

:D

Doug
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