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| Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=651 |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Waiting |
Waiting to see if we get risk on trading. The am NY session has been rather mundane after some nice moves during the London session. Presently we have risk off trading. However on AUDUSD price is at the lower 1.62 deviation on the channel, MACD is over sold, I drew a trend-line on the NT indicator, and we have been in a slight up trend the last several days. So technicals are favorable to a move back into trend. This is a nice swing low position and a true swing low entry possibility for a swing trade. Some of us that trade 4 hours and up which has included me call this scalping the lower time periods but this is in no way a scalp setup. We could see from this nice low position a real nice move into an uptrend that actually could last a few day. I just wanted to show you how easy this setup can lend itself to analysis that is really quite easy to make. All the indicators are on the chart already to do that. So looking to the afternoon or evening for a move back into the prevailing direction. We may not get it but commodities can turn on and off with in hours. The other possibility is that we could see a return to the bigger down trend on the daily chart with AUDUSD finding resistance at the 50 percent Fibonacci level from the Feb. high. However being at the 50 percent level there is room for more correction. So you get a nice analysis with the setup but you still need to look to the daily chart for a look at the biger picture. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | AUDUSD Pending Hit |
So my pending order buy limit is hit on AUDUSD at 1.00230. I know from a news site I monitor that the big boys have bids in this area. So I should get some Momentum right from the start. So I am in with good momentum. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Thu Jun 28, 2012 8:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Moved stop loss |
Ok I moved the stop Loss to break even and now have a free trade. Still have good momentum. An end of day ralley on the US stock market triggered risk on. This is something to look for when trading commodities during the NY session. Meeting some resistance at the round number 1.0050 which is also s1 pivot. There is not a reason now I would not stay in this trade. The move has been back in the direction of the prevailing trend. Even if I hit my break even I would be back again in an excellent position to reenter. I suspect we may hover around the 1.0040-1.0050 till the Asian session starts in a few hours. With equities recovering some but the DOW closing at 12,602.26 or down -24.75 I do not know how the Asian session will open. However the Dow recovered quite a lot from its low on the day. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | AUDUSD |
Logged a small profit of about 4 pips break even. So a really mundane afternoon. Will wait and continue to watch this and hope I can get in to a long for a ride north of the central channel. My plan was to do that if possible and I stayed with the plan I started with when entering the trade. It is still a possible strategy. This was a swing trade from the beginning and I will continue to look for it. If I would get one I will be out before the weekend. The markets being spooked so easily by the EUR zone. Now I am going to spend some time working with the setup to try to develop it into a system that can be traded easily. This setup has all the technical tools it needs but I need to study the NT indicator more fully. Sometime we are going to get spot on entries with it but other times more judgement will be needed it appears. It certainly reflects an over sold or over bought pattern I think. One very nice quality the indicator shows is positive and negative divergence to price. Which was very clear as the trend line showed on the Diff line as price move on downward. What is more interesting is what might also appear on the cross line in regards to price. It is an interesting indicator. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Nice moves |
So as I retire to a night out and I look at my tablet and find the EU submit has lit up currency. I hope everybody is having success ... |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | AUDUSD |
I did not want to go out tonight and leave pending trades with the EU summit in full swing but if I had been home it would have been a satisfying trade. AUDUSD more than filled out the deviation channel. It had been at parity but now my daily range indicator says from high to low 152 pips. Sure would not have thought that earlier today as mundane as the trading had been but the setup clearly indicated the possible move. There is a lot of satisfaction in being able to make your own analysis and than trade it with confidence. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Jun 29, 2012 9:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
Trading back into the trend from the earlier move on GBPJPY. The pair made it out to the 2.62 max outer channel. GBPJPY and EURJPY are the two biggest money makers to trade. The hourly range on GBPNZD for instance can be large but the daily range of GBPJPY and EURJPY is higher than the NZD pairs. I will let this trade run it self down to below center deviation channel and take profit before the weekend. Price will react to each level of the deviation channel it passes. Flat at around 123.70 |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | GBPJPY |
It appears I went flat just at the right moment on this pair. Today certainly ends a 5 day slide down on the daily time period with a large bull candle that covers the last 4 maybe 5 daily candles. |
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| Author: | Eamonn [ Sat Jun 30, 2012 3:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
Ho Sk, Good luck wth the revised template and ideas, I really like the Compassfx indicator. Cheers, Eamonn. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
Since my intro will change from time to time I will also place the summation in the thread so as to have a record of it long after the intro has changed. It also will allow those following the thread to be aware of changes by time stamping it within the thread. When I look at a pair I am looking at the movement of price against the background of the deviation channel. I want to know if price has reached a lower outer deviation channel or a higher outer deviation channel. Which one is it at and has it recently been on that channel or has it moved even farther out maybe to the 2.62. Is the pair in a uptrend or down trend. Where has price pulled back to previously on the deviation channel. Does it have a characteristic pattern. I cherry pick the best pairs for trading. So If in an uptrend with price at the 1.62 lower outer standard deviation channel. I am going to be thinking this is a good area to re-enter the trend. If I am at the top deviation channel in an uptrend I may think of a possible counter-trend trade back to the center line of the indicator. It is easier to trade with the trend but the nature of a pair may make for a good counter trend trade. Such things as news and risk off-on commodity trading for instance may spin a pair around the daily range. So I am always keeping an ear to news also. I usually will monitor the major news event releases at FF. But I also like to monitor news at Forex Live because of there order book reports. They have good sources and they usually know where the offers, bids and stops are being placed by the large movers of the market. I will look at the daily range of a pair. What is the present top to bottom range. Has the pair already for instance moved within it daily range in the Asian session or London session. Once I get a feel for where price is than I will look at the MACD for overbought or oversold reading. I will look at the NT indicator for the same or has the NT indicator converged in towards the Cross. Sometimes the indicator will form tight points and than flare out with the Cross and Diff moving out in a C like pattern that will eventually form a circle. Other time it seems the indicator reaches a peak after a cross down or up and when the indicator changes direction so does price. The MACD can give good confirming signals to the NT indicator. The NT indicator can keep you from getting faked out by MACD. There does seem to be a characteristic movement to it and a sense that it can keep you informed as to the momentum of a trade. The Demark trend lines are very good for spotting trading pattern like flags and triangles. Price will go back and forth and fill in a triangle with price bouncing off both trend line till it finally breaks out. One thing I noticed about the NT indicator is that it gives very clear signals with trend line breaks as well as breaks out of narrow ranges like accumulation and distribution. I will look top down from the 60 minute to the 15 minute for the best time period to trade. This varies with pair daily range and volatility. Once I have done enough analysis I may place a pending trade. This is where knowing where the likely bids and offers of the big mover of the market can come in handy. You can put your bids and offers where they have theirs and hope to get immediate momentum when price triggers your trade. You really do not want to trade against these guys. You do not want to sell into their buy stops or buy into there sell stops if you can help it. That is one of the reasons why when retail traders try to fade the market they get run over. I may enter a trade by market if there is a sudden change in trading conditions that turns on risk for instance. My exits will be rather ambitious if I am moving with the trend and I may add to my position. Counter trend I will look for a reasonable and safe level like the middle channel or a pivot. to get out. My stops are usually very tight when trading this setup because there are so many good choices to place them. A deviation channel farther out for instance, pivot or a recent high or low. I am willing to take a small loss and readjust and get in even farther out on the channel. I will than have even a better trade that will easily make up the difference. I like to just get out of a trade if price is going against me to any degree. It is my only rule. As soon as I do I usually know if I just need to readjust or if there is a fundamental reason to not reenter the pair. I am a thinking trader and I am listening to what price is telling me. A central part of my analysis is looking at the daily charts. I do not spend a lot of time. I may just use the Fib tool to look at a pull back. Gain some general insight into whether there is more room in a correction possible. Look for some patterns. See where my five day reads off of the deviation channel relate to the bigger picture. I am not to concerned about how many pips I make. I am more concerned about the process. Just one way to trade this setup. It really is quite flexible. In time I hope to become more specific in how best to use the NT indicator and hope many traders will contribute ideas. |
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