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Author:

nanningbob [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 7:04 am ]

Post subject:

Re: 10.6 EDSEL

rocketman99 wrote:
nanningbob wrote:
rocketman99 wrote:
nanningbob wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Except for the CAD looks like everything wants to head back to the center. So ......... watch for those trend trades not to go as far as they have been or even not to be taken.
Well that was a stupid analysis, look at the aud go south.
The AUD is heading south due to a high impact announcement at GMT 00:30:

00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High 2.3% 2.6% 2.4%

What is your advice with EDSEL regarding high impact news, especially on GBP, AUD and JPY that tend to go crazy after an announcement?

I have played with moving stops closer, but invariably the wipsaws are so massive my stops get taken out no matter what. Should you just close everything before the announcement (in profit or loss) and start again after the announcement?
It is all how you look at it. aud/jpy was a 100 pip move which is not massive to me. I play small lots so lets say I have ten cents riding on a trade and it goes 100 pips in the hole. That is ten dollars but I have thousands of dollars in my account. To me news stories do not affect me. I can close, counter trade, or wait a move out. Since I know JPY bond sales will start within the week, I am confident it will come back and go above the 240 line in the future. So these kind of moves dont affect my trading.

In reality price has stayed within its range of the last 3 months so until it breaks out of its range these moves are of no concern to me. If anything JPY will continue to weaken their currency and China's economy is not sliding so AUD economy will level out. I expect aud/jpy to go up again in the near future like this month. So I am looking for buy opportunities and when this news story is done playing out I will look for my best entrance. This again shows why I multiple level trade instead of a hard SL. This story will affect price only temporary. It does not change the fundamentals of the immediate future.
Thanks for the insight. I am still mildly confused as according to the 10.4 summary a kind soul posted yesterday, SL should be at either MA240, MA60 or xxx.00 or xxx.050. I was savaged twice in two days on the AUDCAD due to massive wipsaws of > 100 pips or 1 cent which comfortably took out the xxx marks. So maybe there needs to be a caveat (for me anyway) thats says widen stops to MA240 and take the pain during high impact news - reevaluate after the news?

I do follow your teachings on small lots, wide stops, but clearly not wide enough as I regularly get stopped out.

The question was what would I do with aud/jpy. Based on 10.4 you could have traded it as a sell when it went down past the 240 and 60 line. Did anyone do that? Probably not there was no signal to do so. The bar was green so you would be looking to buy. I was not looking for aud/jpy to sell off like that. That was a news story move and indies do not predict news stories. If you had been looking for a trade today before the move, you would have been looking at a 10.4 buy crossing the DP up on the STO7 signal. We can see there is no STO7 signal to trade from.

If you had a trade from yesterday like a 10.6 trade, which was possible, you would have had a minimum profit trade of 10-20 pips. They key would have been making sure your winner did not turn into a loser. Did I have any aud/jpy buy trades? no so I am not overly concerned. I did not trade the aud/jpy signals from yesterday or today. If you did try to trade it, it was a minimal trade early in the trading day and a no trade later.

News stories are a daily fact of life. Most of the time they will go with the grain. Unexpected ones do not. It is just part of trading. Take the loss or ride out the temporary move. Looks like the AUD is going to continue its DT.

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Author:	nanningbob [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:50 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
harry wrote: rocketman99 wrote: The AUD is heading south due to a high impact announcement at GMT 00:30: 00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% What is your advice with EDSEL regarding high impact news, especially on GBP, AUD and JPY that tend to go crazy after an announcement? I have played with moving stops closer, but invariably the wipsaws are so massive my stops get taken out no matter what. Should you just close everything before the announcement (in profit or loss) and start again after the announcement? Hi Rocketman, I am newbie but i did experiment and what i suggest you is if its in profit then close it out. If its in negative then place one pending trade for other direction and if the news hits in your direction then you will recover from your negative trade and if it hits opposite side then you will recover from the pending trade. (You can do only incase if you do not want to close your current negative trade)... I am not sure that this is good idea or not but i did experiment and it worked out for me because once i feel that the news have hit the highest level i just close it and then wait for my negative trade to come back and then i close that too... I did one experiment. I placed 2 pending trade before news coming out for same pair. For example, GBPUSD - if news coming out at 12:30 then i place 2 pending trade at 12:28 and they are BUY and SELL 5 pips away from current price so what ever direction news hit, i make some profit but make sure that you know that the news is high impacted otherwise you might make some quick loss...Also i always set low SL because once news hit, it always goes in one direction and then it will come back quickly so i just have to close it... You can give it a try in demo account and then you can go for live... Again, i will take advice from everyone if i am doing something wrong... thanks Straddle trading can work with single news stories but can be a nightmare when there are multiple. Unless you have a broker where both are taken and you end up with a hedged trade. So Straddle trading single news stories is a workable strategy but difficult if the news stories are bunched together.

Author:	rocketman99 [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:20 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
nanningbob wrote: rocketman99 wrote: nanningbob wrote: nanningbob wrote:Except for the CAD looks like everything wants to head back to the center. So ......... watch for those trend trades not to go as far as they have been or even not to be taken. Well that was a stupid analysis, look at the aud go south. The AUD is heading south due to a high impact announcement at GMT 00:30: 00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% What is your advice with EDSEL regarding high impact news, especially on GBP, AUD and JPY that tend to go crazy after an announcement? I have played with moving stops closer, but invariably the wipsaws are so massive my stops get taken out no matter what. Should you just close everything before the announcement (in profit or loss) and start again after the announcement? It is all how you look at it. aud/jpy was a 100 pip move which is not massive to me. I play small lots so lets say I have ten cents riding on a trade and it goes 100 pips in the hole. That is ten dollars but I have thousands of dollars in my account. To me news stories do not affect me. I can close, counter trade, or wait a move out. Since I know JPY bond sales will start within the week, I am confident it will come back and go above the 240 line in the future. So these kind of moves dont affect my trading. In reality price has stayed within its range of the last 3 months so until it breaks out of its range these moves are of no concern to me. If anything JPY will continue to weaken their currency and China's economy is not sliding so AUD economy will level out. I expect aud/jpy to go up again in the near future like this month. So I am looking for buy opportunities and when this news story is done playing out I will look for my best entrance. This again shows why I multiple level trade instead of a hard SL. This story will affect price only temporary. It does not change the fundamentals of the immediate future. Thanks for the insight. I am still mildly confused as according to the 10.4 summary a kind soul posted yesterday, SL should be at either MA240, MA60 or xxx.00 or xxx.050. I was savaged twice in two days on the AUDCAD due to massive wipsaws of > 100 pips or 1 cent which comfortably took out the xxx marks. So maybe there needs to be a caveat (for me anyway) thats says widen stops to MA240 and take the pain during high impact news - reevaluate after the news? I do follow your teachings on small lots, wide stops, but clearly not wide enough as I regularly get stopped out.

Author:	rocketman99 [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:25 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
harry wrote: rocketman99 wrote: The AUD is heading south due to a high impact announcement at GMT 00:30: 00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) High 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% What is your advice with EDSEL regarding high impact news, especially on GBP, AUD and JPY that tend to go crazy after an announcement? I have played with moving stops closer, but invariably the wipsaws are so massive my stops get taken out no matter what. Should you just close everything before the announcement (in profit or loss) and start again after the announcement? Hi Rocketman, I am newbie but i did experiment and what i suggest you is if its in profit then close it out. If its in negative then place one pending trade for other direction and if the news hits in your direction then you will recover from your negative trade and if it hits opposite side then you will recover from the pending trade. (You can do only incase if you do not want to close your current negative trade)... I am not sure that this is good idea or not but i did experiment and it worked out for me because once i feel that the news have hit the highest level i just close it and then wait for my negative trade to come back and then i close that too... I did one experiment. I placed 2 pending trade before news coming out for same pair. For example, GBPUSD - if news coming out at 12:30 then i place 2 pending trade at 12:28 and they are BUY and SELL 5 pips away from current price so what ever direction news hit, i make some profit but make sure that you know that the news is high impacted otherwise you might make some quick loss...Also i always set low SL because once news hit, it always goes in one direction and then it will come back quickly so i just have to close it... You can give it a try in demo account and then you can go for live... Again, i will take advice from everyone if i am doing something wrong... thanks I like your idea, but I need to automate this. I am in asiapac timezone, so most of the action is when I am catching zzzzz's. Maybe I need to just concentrate on 10.6 trades off the STOCH7 bounce back up if it does bounce using Steve's EA's. Close all before the announcement and leave the EA running to do the work and hope for the best.

Author:	nanningbob [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 7:35 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
My scorecard so far this month (December) on the aud/jpy is 3 wins 2 losses for -12 pips. These were actually left over trades from the last week of November.

Author:	johnf [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:02 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Bob I just wanted to run something past you. The signal gives you a pending set up and you see all the criteria is satisfied. If it is say a buy signal, the Stoch touches or appears to be crossing the 20 mark. Is entry optimised on the cross? In otherwise do we have to see there is a definite cross into the 40-60 zone? I lost 3 trades today after setting pending at SS lines. EURJPY in particular. Perhaps my stops were too tight.

Author:	harry [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
johnf wrote:Bob I just wanted to run something past you. The signal gives you a pending set up and you see all the criteria is satisfied. If it is say a buy signal, the Stoch touches or appears to be crossing the 20 mark. Is entry optimised on the cross? In otherwise do we have to see there is a definite cross into the 40-60 zone? I lost 3 trades today after setting pending at SS lines. EURJPY in particular. Perhaps my stops were too tight. Hi John, Bob will answer your question correctly but i want to add something. When ever i lost my trade, always i went back and checked the graph. After roughly 12 hours i check what happened to the price. Did it went more down then my stop loss or it triggered back to positive side...If it is still continue to negative side then i wait 12 more hours. If current price is more then my opened trade price then i check how deep it went so that i can increase my stop loss for future trade.... I experienced 70 pips and Bob, Steve always suggest you to have atleast 240MA line for stop loss and after experience 70 pip highest, i have started putting up fixed 100 to max 200 pip stop loss and my all trades are making it positive since then.... You can give it a try in demo account and then use this strategy in live account... Good Luck! Thanks Harry

Author:	johnf [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:14 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Thanks Harry. I think it is always worthy checking the Stoch on the hour for a short term analysis too. I will take on board your advice and I thank you for sharing your experience

Author:	nanningbob [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:19 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
johnf wrote:Bob I just wanted to run something past you. The signal gives you a pending set up and you see all the criteria is satisfied. If it is say a buy signal, the Stoch touches or appears to be crossing the 20 mark. Is entry optimised on the cross? In otherwise do we have to see there is a definite cross into the 40-60 zone? I lost 3 trades today after setting pending at SS lines. EURJPY in particular. Perhaps my stops were too tight. I have 2 pendings set on the eur/jpy, one has taken and the other is 60 pips up. Most price action is above the 80 STO line so it gives you plenty of time to enter. I dont know why you would lose 3 trades. Since the November 1 am 23 wins and 5 losers on the eur/jpy for 424 pips. The move up has been 624 pips so I have gotten most of it but not as good as I have done with others. It has hit the 60 MA 1 time and the 240 MA no times, so it is just a matter of sticking with the trend. The CSS has shown the eur stronger than the JPY since Mid November and the JPY has been weaken to the Euro since beginning November. I mean if you want to play with tight stops and get your head bashed in constantly be my guest. Here is the eur/jpy chart just showing constant UT for 4 weeks now. Also the CSS showing JPY angling down and EURO angling up. What more can I say????

Author:	nanningbob [ Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:25 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Here is the CSS eur and jpy only. This is the trading market you can make a killing at. Two currencies going in opposite directions. These are where you make your killings.

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