fok wrote:

Captain Jack wrote:

Pedigree wrote:

Captain Jack wrote:Let me set a few things in order here. Volume is not a measure of "orders". Volume as presented to you by the platform, is nothing more than "activity" in a pair. It is indicative of "price ticks", be they up or down. Nothing more and nothing less. It is local to your chosen broker and varies with each, unless they are a "white box" or branded server on a larger net.
CJ

Hi CJ,

I have a dilemma that I hope you can at least make a contribution to in the hope of finding a solution.

So, the term "volume" is really a misnomer, and should be more appropriately described as "Tick Volume" because it measures the number of entries into the market rather than the sum of the liquidity each entrant is bringing into it.

Now we know:

1. That Market Makers do not come into the market in large numbers
2. That stop-hunts are carried out by MMs when they are on the hunt
3. That "volume" ALWAYS increases when stop-hunts occur

My dilemma is this: Why does "volume" ALWAYS increase in stop-hunts when MMs who are responsible for it come not in large numbers but with sizable liquidity?

VOLUME

noun
1. a collection of written or printed sheets bound together and constituting a book.
2. one book of a related set or series.
3. a set of issues of a periodical, often covering one year.
4. History/Historical . a roll of papyrus, parchment, or the like, or of manuscript.
5. the amount of space, measured in cubic units, that an object or substance occupies.

This essence of this thread is deception and deceit. VOLUME is nothing more than another basically useless indicator "pushed" onto traders. There is no place in Forex for "volume" as defined above. Volume is a measure of space. How much space does a .0001 cent move in price occupy?

Think about what I posted about "tick volume" and you will have your answer - Stop hunts, especially during "news" events are the "tools" the Fox uses to move price greater distances, in a shorter time than would normally be possible.

Tick volume absolutely does not represent entries into the market. Your broker "filters" the price ticks anyway so you have no idea how many ticks are taking place. A price tick is a movement of price, either up or down. And that is all it is. The reason the number of ticks increase is because price is ticking higher or lower or higher AND lower more frequently than normally would occur.

MMs are ALWAYS in and control the 1st and 3rd day of the 3 day cycles. The 2nd day of the 3 day cycle is normally ALLOWED to be controlled by traders or "the hounds" who have jumped on the false trail laid out by the Fox. The Fox may step aside and let human nature run it's course. Recall that the Fox needs transactions to occur and the largest number of transactions WILL occur at areas of interest for both buyers and sellers. Tick volume can be extremely high while price remains stagnant. Price can also move a great distance while tick volume is very low.

Volume as presented to you by your broker is just another way to get you to look to the East as the Fox exits West...

CJ

Thanks, CJ.

Don't you think that big volumes can be used to identify fake moves, to verify that the fox is doing his work?

GU 1 min

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fok

Lara wrote:I've been following the debate with interest but imho we are omitting a useful weapon in our fox hunting and that is the spread surge. I posted a trade a few days ago which showed how I use this to spot a good entrance. Like so many aspects of my current trading, CJ (AGAIN) opened my eyes to this very useful and effective trading tool. In my GBPUSD trade below, I entered a short right at yesterday's daily high. Note how the first spread surge (bottom window) occurred approx 15mins before the second which coincided with the spike. Okay granted you need to have been inebriated and on CJ's special brand of Moonshine (helps sometimes in forex ) to have missed the beautiful spike, but the spread for me just added to the confirmation of an imminent reversal and was the closer.

I wouldn't bother with this if you are using a fixed-spread broker, but, if you are with an ECN broker, what a way to see that the fox is in da house. Think of this analogy - sweet-toothed foxy is in the candy store and is stealing the candy off the shelves (our open orders) and then he s t r e t c h e s over the counter and takes all the candy there (our stops and pendings) before making a quick getaway out the door. The more technical amongst us can argue that the LPs do this by reducing liquidity to the brokers but however foxy does this the spread spike is a sure way to trigger our stops and pendings. In a previous life I used to lay ALL the blame at the door of the @&^%)* brokers .

Obviously, like everything in forex (damn ) this does not reflect a reversal ALL the time. But if used at the major candy stores - pivots, daily high / lows, first push of the M or W patterns and major
S & R levels, to name a few of the bigger stores, it comes in very handy as an ADDITIONAL confirmation.

Anyway that's my 25c worth. I DO NOT WANT to detract from the thread; in fact I commend CJ's no-nonsense approach to anyone wanting to clothe us naked ones with indicators . I offer this only as a reminder of an aspect that CJ himself mentioned - but there again CJ must feel free to delete this post if he feels its off topic.

May you skin many..........

Lara

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