stevehopwoodforex.com • 10.4 A Complete System

Author:

nanningbob [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:56 am ]

Post subject:

Re: 10.4 A Complete System

f451 wrote:Bob,

I had a PM asking me a little more on trend lines and how they might work with NB 10.4. If this is too offtopic please delete and let me know and I'll repost in the advanced and counter thread.

"Your recent post summarising 10.4 trades is outstanding especially section on qualifying trades - i.e. trend lines . Just to expand a liitle on this -When you start the weeks review the potential 10.4 pairs to focus on do you look at TLs on the daily weekly on all pairs or take any initial filter from the D1 slope strength or w1 TF ?"

I use trend lines a lot. I usually mark up the current trend channel on the daily timeframe and then tweak it a little on the 4HR chart. Sometimes I will draw a steeper trend line in the direction of the major trend to give me early warning of potential trend exhaustion and reversal, or a transition to a trading range. Over the weekend I try to have a quick look at the weekly chart just to make sure I'm not missing anything obvious from the higher timeframe (e.g. price approaching an obvious previous swing high or low, or a trend line).

The important thing to remember about trend lines is that in most cases price will respect the trend line and bounce off it. Often you see price moving along in a channel bouncing off the high or the low of the channel. These are easy trades and in my experience line up well with NB 10.4 which measures momentum and shows the likely end of retrace, and are a good entry point back into the trend. Thus trend channels can provide additional confirmation to NB 10.4 if you want it.

But trend lines can also help filter out peaker trades and keep you out when the trend is changing.

The 10.4 system is designed to get you entries back into a higher time frame trend after a retrace because these are high probability, high reward trades, and the use of pending orders keeps you out if price doesn't continue on the direction of the trend.

However, 10.4 can give you signals when the trend is beginning to transition to range or reverse, and while pending orders will most likely keep you out of trouble (by not getting triggered), it would be better to avoid setting them at all in these situations.

Drawing trend lines can often give you an early warning of when this is happening. If price is accelerating away from the moving average and respecting a steeper trend line in the direction of the main trend, then you may be looking at the end of the trend, so it's time to be careful. When such a steeper trend line breaks, I would avoid taking any NB 10.4 signal to re-enter the trend, because more than likely the trend is over and a reversal or transition to a trading range has begun.

The attached diagrams should give people an idea of what I'm describing.

NB104-Trendlines1.jpg

104-TL-2.png

NB104-TL-3.png

104-TL-4.png
If you're after more on trend lines I suggest reading Al Brooks and No Brainer Trades.
Al Brooks has some great material on price action trading in general and trend channels in particular - worth looking up. His books are terrific but a challenging read however his video course is easy to understand.

NBT has a few great (although dense articles) on trend lines

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/ ... hpads.html
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2013/02/ ... igned.html

Tom DeMark has several books out on trendlines, Etc. Anyone who uses high end charts will trade successfully. 240 line is based on a monthly chart. That is why this system works. The difference is instead of drawing two channel lines, several trendlines and then taking the breakout. You get one line and then enter back into the direction with multiple trades using weekly or daily S/R lines. The fundamental difference between my system and a channel traders is during the run up I will get more pips than he does with my multiple trades and if I get a SL hit my lot size is so much smaller.

For example the gbp/jpy run so far is 1153 pips. For a channel trader to get that many pips he would have to enter right at the very bottom tip of the move and take profit right at the very top tip of the move. He can do neither. With my system I enter into the move like he does but add positions and my total pips is 1259. I have actually pocketed more pips than the move has actually moved. Yet if I ever take a loss it will be much smaller and I trade with much less risk on any single trade.

One guy just said I am going to bed and am not going to risk a trade. His fear level is very high. If he traded small enough lots and entered multiple positions he would wake up to either no trade, a small loss, OR a big multiple level profit because several levels were taken when price moved again. Sooner or later some of you guys are gonna get it and you will not be afraid of the market any more. Yes I am in every xxx/jpy cross trade and if it goes against me I will take some 1 or 2% hits. On the other hand I pocketed almost 7% of my account yesterday. HMMMMMMMMMMM. You think I am afraid that all 7 JPY cross pairs are just suddenly gonna go south and hit my SL?? Guess what happens if they dont and the trend continues?

Since April 1 I have had 42 losing trades for 1512 pips in losses, that averages to 6 losing trades a day. Most of you would be jumping off of bridges if you lost 6 trades a day for 7 straight days. However, I have pocketed 7987 pips since April 1 for a grand total of 6475 total pips gained. That also equates to a 69% increase in my account.

OK now you were saying about how you can improve the system?? I dont wish to sound mean or harsh but yes that system would work beautifully, but why would I want to change??

stevehopwoodforex.com https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/ Print view

10.4 A Complete System https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1481	Page 303 of 745

Author:	tommiho [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 7:15 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
1H 10.4s on all JPY pairs.

Author:	Staedtler [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 7:17 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
screw the DD.. i'm holding my GBPJPY long looks like a bear trap right now. their gonna get nailed

Author:	tommiho [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 7:20 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:66% at FF are short the gbp/jpy 65% at FF are short usd/jpy 55% at FF are short eur/jpy Why am I long those pairs??? It may go like this, it can not go further anymore, it can not go further anymore, it can not go further anymore, it can not go further anymore, it can not go further anymore, it can not go further anymore... Should you be over there more often the numbers could have been closer to the reality .

Author:	rebyte2 [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 7:45 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:1H 10.4s on all JPY pairs. ....and nice 1H pin bars forming...with STO 5 in OS territory.

Author:	Gertje [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 8:51 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:66% at FF are short the gbp/jpy 65% at FF are short usd/jpy 55% at FF are short eur/jpy Why am I long those pairs??? My guess is the majority of those are [martingale]grid-traders, praying to the Forex God to rescue the JPY.

Author:	SteveHopwood [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:09 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:66% at FF are short the gbp/jpy 65% at FF are short usd/jpy 55% at FF are short eur/jpy Why am I long those pairs??? Because you are an idiot who cannot take good advice when it is offered.

Author:	nanningbob [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:28 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:1H 10.4s on all JPY pairs. Yup added more pending positions

Author:	kwchau [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 10:38 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hi Bob, thank you for teaching us your wonderful system ! Would you kind enough to share with us : how do you set SL for these yen trades ? You have mentioned if the SL for these yen pairs are hit, the loss is small, just wonder how far away are your stops from the entry price.

All times are UTC	Page 303 of 745
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited