The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Ingot54]

What happened to the cable? No news coming, everybody shorting the baby and...

Hmm.. If you were to look a eurgbp.. It would have given hints to such an action.. One more push down, meaning eur must go down, gbp must go up

Nicely spotted Kwan ... of course it is clearer now ... thanks for that.

What was not clear, is why it happened at the precise moment of USD news. As both are tied to the USD, one would "expect" them to move opposite USD ... but we are working with an instrument where expectations are fatal

[kwanann]

Hmm.. If you were to look a eurgbp.. It would have given hints to such an action.. One more push down, meaning eur must go down, gbp must go up

Quite correct![/quote]


Nice!

Early entry there although supported by higher tf trend, would have got u into quite a bit of dd. that's one scenario that I.m looking to avoid. Any dd above 50pips means a bad entry for me at this point of my journey.


Everyone has their own path to follow to turn themselves into the holy grail. Each has it's own merit and shine, whilst at the same time, completely different from others. Like The university of life, this university of forex wil abuse you, and try ways and means to turn you nuts, how you survive it will decide how you graduate from this university. Only you yourself can finish this journey and achieve your goals

Wishing everyone all the best in this journey!

[kwanann]

What happened to the cable? No news coming, everybody shorting the baby and...

Hmm.. If you were to look a eurgbp.. It would have given hints to such an action.. One more push down, meaning eur must go down, gbp must go up

Nicely spotted Kwan ... of course it is clearer now ... thanks for that.

What was not clear, is why it happened at the precise moment of USD news. As both are tied to the USD, one would "expect" them to move opposite USD ... but we are working with an instrument where expectations are fatal

That is one of the stuff that I look at now, differing views from each pair and one of the reasons why I closed my gu trade early rather than let it ride.

What I.m smiling now,is how those mm are enticing people to go long. Really interesting to see them at work, precision and yet artistic in nature, putting what looks like a w, pushes up and everything when all they want is to bring price down, but they might probably leave it right in the middle and knock everyone on the head just for the fun of it.

Ivan

Remember, news are just for them to cover their tracks, they can always cook up some story afterward for the strange move. Remember the article bob posted, where weather is blamed for the move for usdcad I think, how lame is that!

Just because it is usd news doesn't mean all usd pairs will move, in fact if you were to look at all usd pairs, not all moved to the same effect!

[sdouglas3]

Can I ask for some clarification on the 3 pushes and time frames? My question is do we trade the same time frame as we see the 3 pushes up or down? Or are we looking for just the 15 minute time frame?

The reason I ask is on different time frames I can see a "M, W" take place but maybe not the 3 pushes. I know CJ mentioned that the M's and W's will appear on different time frames but wasn't for sure if we need to wait for the 3 pushes first.

Thank you all for allowing me to follow (stalk) this tread. I want to contribute more to this thread and will once I get a firm footing on all this.

Thanks,

Steve

[mjws00]

You don't need to wait for three pushes. A 'push' is just an intraday impulse move. It is just an effective tool for MM's. By the third wave, those that were selling into the move are frustrated, stopped out, bored and or are ready to reverse. Sometimes it takes 2, sometimes 4... whatever they need to get the volume they want trapped.

On a day with a stop hunt, you can have 3 pushes long, to trap. A reversal. Then 3 more short that are larger to form the major direction for the day, and typically a leg of our intraweek 3 day cycle.

You need to trade the timeframe you see the pattern in. However, you can sometimes relate this to a larger timeframe move. i.e We see the second leg of a Big M forming on H1 or H4... we can sell the second leg of the 15M "M" that forms as the higher TF pattern is being built and hopefully end up with a "perfect" entry in the pins on the larger move.

The MM's LOVE IT when you turn a 15M trade into a 4H trade the wrong way. Most of the time traders do this with trades that are running against them. It is the classic "let the loser run" scenario. HUGE danger in this. You get placed into drawdown, and that gives them leverage to apply pressure and force an error.

Good luck,

Mike

[sdouglas3]

You don't need to wait for three pushes. A 'push' is just an intraday impulse move. It is just an effective tool for MM's. By the third wave, those that were selling into the move are frustrated, stopped out, bored and or are ready to reverse. Sometimes it takes 2, sometimes 4... whatever they need to get the volume they want trapped.

On a day with a stop hunt, you can have 3 pushes long, to trap. A reversal. Then 3 more short that are larger to form the major direction for the day, and typically a leg of our intraweek 3 day cycle.

You need to trade the timeframe you see the pattern in. However, you can sometimes relate this to a larger timeframe move. i.e We see the second leg of a Big M forming on H1 or H4... we can sell the second leg of the 15M "M" that forms as the higher TF pattern is being built and hopefully end up with a "perfect" entry in the pins on the larger move.

The MM's LOVE IT when you turn a 15M trade into a 4H trade the wrong way. Most of the time traders do this with trades that are running against them. It is the classic "let the loser run" scenario. HUGE danger in this. You get placed into drawdown, and that gives them leverage to apply pressure and force an error.

Good luck,

Mike

Thank you Mike for your detailed response and clearing this up for me. I'm at work now but will break it down when I get home so that I can get on the right path. At times I feel like I look at the charts so much that I forget what I have looked at and might miss an opportunity. I think I need to make a spreadsheet detailing what might be happening (in play) on each pair so I refer back to it rather than going through each pair over and over.

Thanks again,

Steve

[hodgires]

I have been following this thread from time to time, and still trying to grasp CJ's concepts. In the chart posted AUDCHF H4, I think i see the last leg of an "M" beggining to print, what do u guys think about this setup?, ,i think it is ready to drop....

hres

[mjws00]

That M looks nice. But where is it in the larger cycle? When Frankie comes online, and then LON, what could happen?

If enough people have sold that double top, they will spike it long and kill weak tight shorts. Asia could also hit the stops high, hit the stops low, then run north. This could run south into the 8423 range, trap BO bears, and then turn and run. Stops in and around 8400 in play (also WP).

We don't know the exact move, but we don't really want to sell into the peak low (beyond a scalp).

If they want to run this back down and test 0.8300 it has to chop, and they need more trapped volume up top.

I'd be comfortable long at 8430-40 depending on PA for a bigger move. I could get short up here with the right PA, but I would be protecting my profits, and the play is a BO below 8435, Where I am eating BO Shorts, and riding Stops to reverse. IF they have what they need in the 8450 range, I just get long with them there.

I haven't been trading this pair. I'm patient enough to let the first wave of kills happen, and then join on the main impulse.

Two bits, I'll be letting them show their hand.

Mike

[hodgires]

Thanks for the response MJ, i am thinking the 3 push cycle has completed here....

hres

[mjws00]

Yep. 3 day cycle is pretty much done. So do you think they have to reverse the larger chart? Why can't they continue on AUD strength once they shake it up a bit trap volume and re-balance?

I like your chart. I could take a quick short. That is a strong M. Best case is there are weak longs from Friday, and they drive it all the way to the pivot / 8400. That really isn't a bad move to get a bunch more shorts on board before a hard drive higher. Can frustrate and kill in that zone as well if they chop it there.

I don't have a huge bias here. I'd love a big pin south, and then harsh reversal. We get a nice fire going with the stops above those highs, imho. 4H looks like continuation to me with a possible retrace in the mean time.

I've been wrong before and will be again. The idea is to come up with possible game plans for them, and when they start playing out we can join them early in the move.

Mike