The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[ciliano]

Also Gold-Dollar looks interesting

H4xau.PNG

m5xau.PNG

As for BAURF

BAURF.PNG

[bluedog23]

Lots of long wicks on the USDJPY at the moment, but it bothers me that the PA is right about mid-range. If you look at the 4H between 7th April and today, you can easily see that (zoom out a bit). Even the Daily is showing a nice RRT.

Dropping to the 1H we have the second leg of the "M" already well developed, and back at support, though I don't let "support" get in the way of a trade. We are also only20 pips above the "))" round figure, so I would probably want to see that broken and tested too.

I'm hard to please on this - I guess the old way of looking at trading still has a very strong grip on me, else I would not be worried by such things as support, round numbers, and so on. And I didn't want to mention the overhead trend line on 4H . which is currently about 70 pips above price ... so I won't

The questions I am asking myself are:

What does the MM want me to think?
Where is price really headed?

Other answers I need are: Has there been a stop-hunt anywhere, and what level are we at?

I can only see a 2-level push up on the 1H, as what might have counted as the first push, starting on 12th August, was negated by pulling nearly all the way back (in my view).

I feel this trade will need a spike higher to take out the bears jumping in, and the bulls beginning to have sweaty palms. So the bulls will need to sweat more yet, before they capitulate, and then the bears get garrotted. After that, I am free to short the guts out of it.

Am I confusing myself with over analysis here? Lately I can not find a trade, though I often see I have missed some.

Thoughts?

Ivan,

I empathize with you. I found CJ's thread when he first started it. I had only been trading forex for a couple of months. During those first months I did the usual thing; looking at all the indicators, EAs, etc. After I found this thread I thought "wow", this stuff really makes sense to me.

Although a novice I plowed ahead and started trading naked and did very well for a few months. Then things started going the other way. For the next couple of months I started giving the gains back to the fox.

A couple of months ago I thought that I either had to get a grip on this stuff or go back to trading equities and options (not nearly as much fun). I reread this thread from the beginning and thought about what was different from when I first started. Two thing occurred to me.

First, I was hopping all around the time frames. By the time I had hopped around all of them I was totally confused. So it came to me; trade the time frame that fits. For me that is the 15 minute. The patterns repeat in all the time frames but its finding the one that fits a person's trading style.

Second, I had started seeing levels that did not exist. I was anticipating which is not necessarily a bad thing but one must be careful. My most common mistake was being early to the party when, in fact, the levels had not completed. So when I think its done there is always another push to the end. Now I use this to my benefit and set aggressive buy/sell limit orders at the extremes. This helps me get into the pins. If I miss a trade so be it. There are a dozen more behind that one.

Now I am back on track. I'm aware of various time frames, but I trade the M15. When trading naked it is so easy to second guess yourself. All of this is just my 2 cents so I hope it helps someone. This is not the only way to trade but it is the best way to trade if one "gets it". Like Captain Jack says, once you see it you will always see it.

Here's my take on the USD/JPY. All of the XXX/JPY are setting up in similar patterns. I'm not in this pair but am in NZD/JPY (short).

usd jpy m15(2).png

Have a nice day,

Ray

[kwanann]

First, I was hopping all around the time frames. By the time I had hopped around all of them I was totally confused. So it came to me; trade the time frame that fits. For me that is the 15 minute. The patterns repeat in all the time frames but its finding the one that fits a person's trading style.

I second that, the same thing happened to me.

Interestingly I'm now able to identify better the tracks left on the H1 and H4, simply because i've stayed on the M15!

[123Reverse]

I'm with you there Ingot.

I need to be consistent in drawing the 3 pushes. Are there any guidelines? I assume because it's called a push, that the move must push through something. Like make a HH or a LL and not return to where the move started?

I also assume these are fractal? ie one full push up on the D1 would be seen as 3 pushes on the H4?

On gold right now I see a 3rd push on the D1 accept as I type this it's baulked after forming a double top. Looking at this D1 3rd leg up on the H4, I see a 3rd push under way but it's formed some large pins. However looking at the H4 3rd leg up on the M30, there are only 2 pushes, so gold could have some way to go up yet!!!

Constructive criticism would be a help, especially if I should not be looking from a fractal view point or if I have the push count wrong. Again I could use some advice on being constant with counting the pushes.

Cheers.

[Ingot54]

I need to be consistent in drawing the 3 pushes. Are there any guidelines? I assume because it's called a push, that the move must push through something. Like make a HH or a LL and not return to where the move started?

I also assume these are fractal? ie one full push up on the D1 would be seen as 3 pushes on the H4?

Constructive criticism would be a help, especially if I should not be looking from a fractal view point or if I have the push count wrong. Again I could use some advice on being constant with counting the pushes.

Cheers.

From what I understand, it is a visual thing, but you are partly right, in my view only

Firstly, it is not set in stone that there must be three pushes - there may be 2 ... or 4 ... or sometimes more. And then they are not always clearly defined. Sometimes they are very clear, other times price kind of meanders, and you are correct (again, imv) in that if price comes back down to the "starting point" of the push, it doesn't count.

The Market makers (MM's) are tricky - they have to fill their order books, and will do whatever it takes to collect volume. So if the lines get blurred, that is only how it appears to us - to them, things remain crystal clear. So we need to be prepared to look for other signs ... not just three pushes.

But we will stay on this, because I too would like to hear the views of others on it.

The other thing is that it is not fractal (scalable) in that sense. But it can be seen also on other TF, as you know. What I am trying to say is that three pushes up on the 15M chart, may not show up as a push on the 4H, but be lost within normal candle activity. Yet, on that same 4H chart, one, two or more pushes may be evident in their own right, in that TF.

Bluedog23 mentioned (affirmed by Kwan) that it takes time to "see" what is being hidden. A lot of Kwan's posts do clearly show the pushes/levels, so all I can add here, is to focus on what others are finding, and go from there.

I would really appreciate further guidelines on this. I would like to know more, simply because I do often get trapped in the middle of a push to higher/lower levels, simply because I spot a great set of pins, but miss the fact there is further to go before they would have been valid.

[kwanann]

Actually, one REALLY simple way (you need loads of patience mind you) is to focus on the peak high and peak low of the pair on the daily and buy on the respective M or W formation.

e.g buy 1.28 sell 1.34 for EU

The fox knows that retail knows about M and W patterns, so they can and they WILL throw up a fake M or W just to get everyone on the wrong side. So if those patterns appear where they should not, be prepared, or just move onto another pair that presents better opportunity.

If you follow my trades, i traded a fair bit on monday/tues, minimal yesterday and almost none today, thats because i couldnt find any nice setup so i rather NOT trade at all

[fahedksa]

Hi All,
I am having issues still with trapping volumes sometimes i take trades according to trapping volume but trades go another way. I am sure its my mistake thats why i start reading all trapping volumes post.
Question about attached chart :Why bars in box not taken as trapping volume (trapp sellers)?
Thanks

[Ingot54]

Hi All,
I am having issues still with trapping volumes sometimes i take trades according to trapping volume but trades go another way. I am sure its my mistake thats why i start reading all trapping volumes post.
Question about attached chart :Why bars in box not taken as trapping volume (trapp sellers)?
Thanks

Hi Fahedksa

The purpose of Trapping Volume is to trap either bears or bulls and mostly BOTH. You can see the previous push down was made to trick bears into thinking price was going down, so they entered short.

But then price rebounded, and they knew then they were incorrect in their view of market direction, and began looking for the cheapest possible exit. Each time price began to come back down they were convinced they were going to get an opportunity to get out of their trades at their entry level, and not make a loss.

Suddenly, as your chart shows, price rapidly moves against them, removing all opportunity to get out with a small loss, and they have to either take the painful draw-down, or get out with a loss.

The period you show is the 5th March 2013 1H chart. The first of the two long candles has a long tail. This happened 1H before the London open, and hit a lot of stops. A stop hunt. That was followed by a rapid recovery, giving the candle a very bullish long tail. The next thing, a giant red candle, destroying any hope new bulls might have had, and leaving them gutted.

But look what happened - a smaller red candle also with longish tail sets up, giving the tell-tale Rail-Road Tracks, and a bottom to that move, and price moved up by around 150 pips.

The answer to your question is, that the first trend up at your first arrow, does indeed trap bears (sellers) because as price moves down, more and more bears jump in to the down-trend ... late to the party as usual, in very high-risk trades. Change to the 4H chart at that point and you will see why the bears were so happy to do that.

[Lara]

Wo, what do you do with that

Nothing all morning and then bam. Actually I've got that nice spread indi which shows massive increase in spreads which coincides with the spikes etc. All trades still open on a number of pairs playing the retrace back into the bias for the day, some had to take a couple of entries in the pins, took 25% drawdown, but now BE for the day, so we'll see where this ends - it ain't over yet

Yip spread rocks. With me the spread actually increased a whole 15m candle before the US news so I was in for a quick 50 pips short on GU. I love it when your broker TELLS you there's going to be a move

All the best.
Lara

GU 15.08.13.jpg

[Ingot54]

Thank you Ingot very much for your post its really helpful.

No problems, Fahedksa.

Remember when looking back at charts, that a green candle with a long, lower tail, was once a long RED candle.

And it is that (red) condition, at that time (before price pulled up rapidly) that entices traders to go short.

Keep practicing and trying to master this ... I am