Ivan,Ingot54 wrote:Lots of long wicks on the USDJPY at the moment, but it bothers me that the PA is right about mid-range. If you look at the 4H between 7th April and today, you can easily see that (zoom out a bit). Even the Daily is showing a nice RRT.
Dropping to the 1H we have the second leg of the "M" already well developed, and back at support, though I don't let "support" get in the way of a trade. We are also only20 pips above the "))" round figure, so I would probably want to see that broken and tested too.
I'm hard to please on this - I guess the old way of looking at trading still has a very strong grip on me, else I would not be worried by such things as support, round numbers, and so on. And I didn't want to mention the overhead trend line on 4H . which is currently about 70 pips above price ... so I won't
The questions I am asking myself are:
What does the MM want me to think?
Where is price really headed?
Other answers I need are: Has there been a stop-hunt anywhere, and what level are we at?
I can only see a 2-level push up on the 1H, as what might have counted as the first push, starting on 12th August, was negated by pulling nearly all the way back (in my view).
I feel this trade will need a spike higher to take out the bears jumping in, and the bulls beginning to have sweaty palms. So the bulls will need to sweat more yet, before they capitulate, and then the bears get garrotted. After that, I am free to short the guts out of it.
Am I confusing myself with over analysis here? Lately I can not find a trade, though I often see I have missed some.
Thoughts?
I empathize with you. I found CJ's thread when he first started it. I had only been trading forex for a couple of months. During those first months I did the usual thing; looking at all the indicators, EAs, etc. After I found this thread I thought "wow", this stuff really makes sense to me.
Although a novice I plowed ahead and started trading naked and did very well for a few months. Then things started going the other way. For the next couple of months I started giving the gains back to the fox.
A couple of months ago I thought that I either had to get a grip on this stuff or go back to trading equities and options (not nearly as much fun). I reread this thread from the beginning and thought about what was different from when I first started. Two thing occurred to me.
First, I was hopping all around the time frames. By the time I had hopped around all of them I was totally confused. So it came to me; trade the time frame that fits. For me that is the 15 minute. The patterns repeat in all the time frames but its finding the one that fits a person's trading style.
Second, I had started seeing levels that did not exist. I was anticipating which is not necessarily a bad thing but one must be careful. My most common mistake was being early to the party when, in fact, the levels had not completed. So when I think its done there is always another push to the end. Now I use this to my benefit and set aggressive buy/sell limit orders at the extremes. This helps me get into the pins. If I miss a trade so be it. There are a dozen more behind that one.
Now I am back on track. I'm aware of various time frames, but I trade the M15. When trading naked it is so easy to second guess yourself. All of this is just my 2 cents so I hope it helps someone. This is not the only way to trade but it is the best way to trade if one "gets it". Like Captain Jack says, once you see it you will always see it.
Here's my take on the USD/JPY. All of the XXX/JPY are setting up in similar patterns. I'm not in this pair but am in NZD/JPY (short).
Have a nice day,
Ray
