The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

@nakedtrader, wapen

Didnt see any M, if anything i see a D1 cycle of uptrend for UJ, breaking out of L3 consolidation from the short

[fahedksa]

Also i open long AUDNZD before 2 hours from now
Reason:
W on 15 minute and RTT on 1H
Also 1D long ride

Am i right?

[bluedog23]

aud jpy m15 2.png

Sellers showing up in the pins with volume and spread increasing; several of the AUD/XXX pairs look like this tonight.

aud jpy m15 3.png

Here's a follow up to previous post. Supply came in at the high pin as shown by volume so nowhere to go but down. Notice the spread increase as it went down; wanted to get away from that high point quickly leaving all the longs behind.

[lilac]

I find it quite difficult and frustrating today. I went short on AUDUSD and AUDJPY before the second push, because I saw a big M on both on H1, and volume seemed to indicate more load on short side, but I was a bit late and stopped out at the retrace of AUDJPY.

Then I took it again but I chikened out before the push, as AUDUSD reached an important support level, so I went out of both positions, and missed the push again, just for one second!

Result: a very small loss that could have been a profit. Still have to learn identifying levels correctly, I thought AUDUSD was at level 3 and maybe today's move was the start of level 1 and a new cycle, but I am not at all sure.

The thing is I knew since erlier this morning that those 2 pairs were going to go down, due to patterns and volume tracks, and they are still going down right now, but I just don't have the balls to get in again, it's probably too late. Oh sh*t. I may just stop trading for today and go to the beach, Ivan posted a very inspiring photo erlier this morning showing his beach

[Pedigree]

There aren't enough traders to trade as usual. Patterns are not ending, signals are not appearing...It is an eternal range...Nobody warned us about how boring August may be...

It’s called “August Trading” Banteka, and thought to be due to the fact that many influential players in the market are now away on holiday. Liquidity is not only low but PA also becomes somewhat atypical as your post well describes. This notion is supported by Baluda’s GlobalMarketTrend indicator current readings. You can find it here:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 110#p16110

You may also find this post of some use:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 088#p69088

August or not, I would recommend that you take a glance at this indi at least once at the outset of every week. It gives you a fair idea of the nature of the market you are about to deal with and what, in general terms, you can expect from it.

[Ingot54]

I'd just like to add that when trading, we will all look to anything that will give us assistance.

In the past it was indicators. And now, we are disciples of Naked Trading.

But there is always the grey area ... and always black and white.

When I asked the question above about the Global Trend Indicator, I didn't hesitate to want to find out more. How far should we go with this? We could put so many things on charts that can help, but for each item added, we lose a little more, because there is just one more object to focus on rather than price.

It's not quite that clear, I know - because not everything is a distraction from price. Personally I still use (and probably will always) the Weekly Pivots. It's NOT because I take my entry or exit from them, in any way. It's simply a "heads-up" to myself to be wary of getting in to moves around those places, because price does tend to consolidate, pause, reverse at those kinds of levels.

Pure Naked Trading does not require any of this - volume, trend analysis, pivots and even trend lines.

So how far can we go in using "aids' to prop up our view of what the market is doing, and how much does the market maker depend on us continuing to use these kinds of tools?

Are they a fatal distraction?

I have a feeling that the influence is so subtle, that, like a magnet, we soon get drawn back to following the squiggly lines, instead of actually following price itself. I'm sure I don't want that ... though I still struggle with NT in its pure form.

Thoughts?

[bluedog23]

I'd just like to add that when trading, we will all look to anything that will give us assistance.

In the past it was indicators. And now, we are disciples of Naked Trading.

But there is always the grey area ... and always black and white.

When I asked the question above about the Global Trend Indicator, I didn't hesitate to want to find out more. How far should we go with this? We could put so many things on charts that can help, but for each item added, we lose a little more, because there is just one more object to focus on rather than price.

It's not quite that clear, I know - because not everything is a distraction from price. Personally I still use (and probably will always) the Weekly Pivots. It's NOT because I take my entry or exit from them, in any way. It's simply a "heads-up" to myself to be wary of getting in to moves around those places, because price does tend to consolidate, pause, reverse at those kinds of levels.

Pure Naked Trading does not require any of this - volume, trend analysis, pivots and even trend lines.

So how far can we go in using "aids' to prop up our view of what the market is doing, and how much does the market maker depend on us continuing to use these kinds of tools?

Are they a fatal distraction?

I have a feeling that the influence is so subtle, that, like a magnet, we soon get drawn back to following the squiggly lines, instead of actually following price itself. I'm sure I don't want that ... though I still struggle with NT in its pure form.

Thoughts?

First, here's what I refer to for a volatility gauge (thanks Baluda). Comparing the volatility around the first of June to now reveals a BIG difference. To Pedigree's point, the currency movements in relation to one another has decreased significantly. This doesn't make trading any easier. This is perhaps what traders more experienced than I refer to as the doldrums. Being the novice that I am I can't say that this is the same or any different than any other year. Others here much more experienced can properly speak to that issue. I can only say that I see fewer good setups than I did back around the first of the summer.

Second, as I have stated before, I have traded equities and options for a long while but have only traded FX for about 8 months. To me it's like any other endeavor; what is the objective measure of success. I believe that is measured in pips (or dollars, or euros, or yen; whatever you fund your account with). If after measuring your result you have gained enough pips that you consider it a success then the tools you use to trade are effective. That can be with all the indicators in the world or none.

I have tried it all and have deep respect for everyone that trades FX with success regardless of their tools. As I have also said before, after trying it all NT makes the most sense to me and has been the most effective for me. I've been back and forth and in my early days would add "just one indicator" that I thought would give me an edge. The next day I would add another and so on until I (once again) had the chart full. Each time I would come back to NT.

Now NT is all that I trade and I find that the longer I go the better I get at finding good setups and really understanding the PA. I do use a volume indicator and a spread indicator. I find these come in handy at key levels and help gauge price reaction to those levels. In simple terms I believe this would be looking for the fox to tip his/her hand on his/her intentions.

I believe that everyone should trade using anything they can to achieve objective measures of success. For me that is NT. And it is not easy, it just looks easy. I have to, in my mind, reinforce certain beliefs everyday. I have to remind myself that I know certain things when I watch the PA, mostly things I learned on the thread for some great traders (thanks again). I am sticking with NT, the charts I post on this thread are exactly as I trade them, nothing else added.

By now I'm sure everyone wishes that I would stop writing, but I have to say one more thing. I have said this before and I will say it again. I believe that looking across the time frames confuses many. In a three day up move on the daily chart there can be several up and down moves on the 15min with good pips to be had. It is easy to get confused. I have to slap my wrist from time to time and remind myself to stay focused; keep things in perspective. I see examples of this every day and it is still challenging for me, but I believe this to be a key to successful NT.

Wishing all a nice evening/morning/day/night....

Ray

[bluedog23]

Here's the pic...

trend.png

[Pedigree]

I'd just like to add that when trading, we will all look to anything that will give us assistance.

In the past it was indicators. And now, we are disciples of Naked Trading.

But there is always the grey area ... and always black and white.

When I asked the question above about the Global Trend Indicator, I didn't hesitate to want to find out more. How far should we go with this? We could put so many things on charts that can help, but for each item added, we lose a little more, because there is just one more object to focus on rather than price.

It's not quite that clear, I know - because not everything is a distraction from price. Personally I still use (and probably will always) the Weekly Pivots. It's NOT because I take my entry or exit from them, in any way. It's simply a "heads-up" to myself to be wary of getting in to moves around those places, because price does tend to consolidate, pause, reverse at those kinds of levels.

Pure Naked Trading does not require any of this - volume, trend analysis, pivots and even trend lines.

So how far can we go in using "aids' to prop up our view of what the market is doing, and how much does the market maker depend on us continuing to use these kinds of tools?

Are they a fatal distraction?

I have a feeling that the influence is so subtle, that, like a magnet, we soon get drawn back to following the squiggly lines, instead of actually following price itself. I'm sure I don't want that ... though I still struggle with NT in its pure form.

Thoughts?

These are pertinent questions.

My policy has been that I will use anything that helps me make more pips because that is why I am in this business, and it has been really fascinating to watch what has been happening in the last 2 months or so.

Contrary to what you say of indis creeping back on to the charts, what I have found is a progressive distancing from them! Take the Info Page CSS for instance; just a few weeks ago, I would swear by those squiggly multicolored lines, and I felt it necessary to consult them before taking any trade! I however quickly found that, in fact, MOST of the trades I took and profited immensely from contradicted the prescriptions of the CSS - and always in the sense that the NT principles I followed were way ahead of them!

I see the GMT indi as nothing more than a utility that gives background info on what to expect from the market. It takes no more than a few seconds' glance to read it after which I need not return to it for another day or so. Apart from the Weekly pivots, which to me, give a sense of location in what is otherwise just a wilderness of price land mass, there is at the moment no other indicator that I find any real use for. Even the spread and volume indis tell you little that you cannot already see in price itself.

Needless to say that, for me, price itself is enough of an issue to contend with. My experience is that all I need to know is contained in it. The rest is window-dressing. Just use anything that helps YOU interpret it better for now. YOUR experience in time will be your best teacher.

[Jemook]

One of our clients pointed me in the direction of this video series by daytradingforexlive.com which is in line with the thoughts in this thread. I just watched the first .. Going to watch the next two tonight. Looks good!

Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 1
Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 2
Forex Trend Trading Strategy - Part 3

Cheers,
Jeremy