The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Aus67]

Anyone care as to guess what the fox is up to at the green double bottom??...
Is she wanting to hold onto the longs that she already has trapped until she hits there stops in the blue zone? thenhead long after trapping a heap of shorts under the round number perhaps?

[mjws00]

Looks to me like there are so many stops in there, it will take a few runs to clear them out. As long as they are working the top and not letting bulls breath... you are good. I'm happy with my JPY shorts so far.

GBP sucked me into thinking they may have a continuation day and drop it some more. Fricken Foxy Fox. I could have had much better entries.

[Aus67]

Just shorted GBPCAD ....putting it out there for comments.
Hopefully someone will point out any errors!

gbpcadpin.JPG

Oh dear! I think I have been out-foxed

[mjws00]

I think you will love that GBPCAD short. There's a lot of nice confluence, 4H OB, 1Hr OB. Weekly Pivot. Top of ATR. Near TMA. I can go on an on on that one.

The concern I have is if you look left... there is a ton of airspace to run it higher. My GBPUSD has a similar problem. It just won't die, ran into pretty solid support. They may need to run it over that pivot to get some fresh bull meat to drive it down. Only trade I am waiting on. Nothing to do but wait.

[Reaper]

A perfect setup: accumulation, basic manipulation and profit release..

[casapips]

Just a quick note folks. taking care of some stuff on the home front so I'll be tied up for a bit. I'll get back to posting some charts as soon as I can....

Things to note....Asian is to set the range, reset the HOD and LOD....

London usually brings the moves... and NY is good for reversals....saw that with a bunch of them this morning....moves usually begin 25-50 pips above or below the Asian range....

The cycles are different across the pairs. They are spread so that they all don't coincide....they are staggered across the pairs..... you can use this info and find "lead pair" and "trailing pair".... who leads and who follows?

What happens on the lower time frames, repeats on the higher, at a later date....you saw some nice price swings on the 15M last night, these will be larger when the patterns hit the 1H, 4H and D1.... more on this later...

Do not try to micro focus to close on this stuff...keep a broad view on the charts, across the time frames...

For those having "indicator with-drawl", put some of your indi's on the screen and watch how price reacts around them.... you have a better understanding of how the fox uses these indicators and how he moves price to or beyond to entice action....

Start looking for quality trade setups....don't take everything you see....you will get better at this...

CJ

Hi Mon Capitaine,

What do you mean by resetting the High of The Day / Low of the Day?

All the best..

[grimweasel]

Here's a chart of gbpjpy that I annotated last year. The price action reversal candles are boxed in yellow. As you can see there are multiple entries all using price action at support and resistance. These are the round number levels and previous zones of buying and selling that CJ is referring too.

Just because you see a 'print' it doesn't mean you should blindly follow it... for added confidence you should look for price action around these zones, not mid level between these zones. When allied with a fib level or 38, 50 or 61 % it adds confluence as would an MA band such as the 20/63 zone that we use over on Strat's thread on FF. Strat and CJ are really on the same page here. Naked action using just an MA band for trend direction and hand draw support and resistance levels are the key to successful trading. Loading up your chart with indicators and hiding price action is never a good idea- ever wonder why the brokers give you so many indys for free??!!

[Reaper]

So my next question is what happens if there is an accumulation phase after accumulation phase in one direction but no stop run to indicate how we trade the profit release? I think what the MMs might be doing here is setting the NY reversal up so the reversal itself is quick and sharp...CJ - would this make sense or am I totally wrong?

[xrismak]

A perfect setup: accumulation, basic manipulation and profit release..

El Capitaine,

Please Can you Prescribe an Indicator or EA that Stops Traders from Falling Asleep, because that's my Major Problem now, I am Always Leaving Pips on the Table, anyway thank you very much for showing us the WAY He who fight and Run Away Live to Fight Another Day, I'll come back and Trade the US Session and Take something away too.

Happy Trading Y'all,

xrismak

[mjws00]

So my next question is what happens if there is an accumulation phase after accumulation phase in one direction but no stop run to indicate how we trade the profit release? I think what the MMs might be doing here is setting the NY reversal up so the reversal itself is quick and sharp...CJ - would this make sense or am I totally wrong?

In leg 1 of the weekly shift. So after they have thrown the brakes on the weekly cycle and chopped it up. Once they pull away from the new high or low. Often they skip the stop run back in that direction. They have so much money trapped at the new high or low, that it is in their best interest to just turn up the heat, not send it closer and risk losing some fresh meat. They turn the heat up slowly on their boiling frog so he doesn't jump out of the pot.

Watch the second leg, and backtest. Many many times there is continuation there. So... they throw what looks to be a FAKE.. all the Frankie/London open "clever" traders fade it like they have successfully the last 3 days, they get stuck holding the bag, and the market runs through them.

This is the leg that pays breakout traders. It is the straightaway. It screwed me over 100 times manually backtesting, but it isn't that hard to spot.

Mike