The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[pips400]

I will be throwing a pity party this weekend at a pub that accepts demo account money...

Humour is absolutely necessary. Sounds like you're making some milestones in your development. There's a difference between a signal and a setup IMHO it's better to be too late than too early.

[kwanann]

Following daily ranges, I entered short too soon in GBPCAD. I forgot you need some climax followed by an inmmediate cancellation as a reliable reversal pattern. Morning and evening stars, tweezers, RRTs... It seems that kind of figure finally appeared. Let´s see next week if it works...

GBPCAD 4H

Imagen 001.jpg

Be careful there ciliano showed a chart with a lot of headroom on top for this one..

Same thing for gbpnzd too.. That one traps a lot since it has an ADR of 200pips, you might think you are in the right direction.. Then wham

[kwanann]

I keep finding that I am consistently calling the right trades and I am consistently calling them 24-36 hours too early.

I just started really focusing on money management, but it has been working against me due to my early entries.

A lesson for myself mostly, but for anyone else with similar trouble: wait. Instead of trying to hit a reversal in the pins and having it actually be a continuation only to reverse just beyond your stop, wait until it actually turns around and trade on the way down and get over the early pips you didn't collect. They were never yours in the first place.

For instance, that GBPCAD trade... I saw that there were pins going back through the several years of ranging that were still higher than price was at the beginning of the last Asian session and the second part of the "M" had not finished. Yet I took a trade too early anyway. It hit those highs and now, after my trade went sour, it has reversed and is most definitely on the way down. Discipline is tougher than identifying patterns..

There are two different trading psychology here..

One is what goes up will come Down, in a long enough timeframe you will always be right, but can you endure the DD and the wait? Imagine you took a long on AU based on previous peak low, you are in severe dd now, wait or take the loss? And in live do you have the balls to do such a trade?

The other is buy low sell high. in essence you are trading the d1 timeframe with the m15 entry. E.g I can take a gbpnzd short at 2.04 which was the last peak high on the d1 and wait for reversal. Issue with this comes with re entry, you can either wait for peak low and entry or enter in between and wait.

One pretty example now is eurusd, sell at 1.34 and it has now retraced a bit, hold or sell?

I no longer put pending orders because that's an example of entering early and trapping the fox, you might get it sometimes but the fox can just as easily take it from you, that was one of my mistakes in the past and I do not wish to see others going thru this path. It's very very dangerous..

I only put pending if I expect news, peak low/high and is ok with the potential of MASSIVE dd if price goes away from me

[Gertje]

Caught with their pants down!

This is my chart now, showing a huge spread opposed to the 0,2-0,6 I usually see.
Any pending buy's between bid and ask are filled, wonder if it will gap down sunday evening when the markets open.....
.

I watched a few 'news-releases' live this past week, and the spread-widening is a great tell-tale sign of manipulation at work.

Since the Fox is the LP's, can they spike the spread in the direction they want, or is it an even divertion from the main [same amount up as down]? Sometimes you can see the bid moving where the ask is staying put, and vice versa.

Can it be that they simply stop quoting one side for a while?
.

Yep. The big volume gets pulled out of the middle and the market tags the remaining liquidity at the edges. Insta spike and spread increase. It's an unregulated market. So they can literally sit on the bid or ask before, and then pull out for news and or let the algos tag the dumb money on the way up or down. Nice gig if you can get it Not too mention they can manipulate via crosses. Literally spike EU while selling GU, EG and staying essentially flat.

Even better is they know where the liquidity pockets are (so when to pull out), and all the positions of the big dogs they are playing against. No rules to say they can't collude. But remember, they DO have HUGE orders to fill so they can't let other big money front run them, they still need BIG money to take the other side when the real volume is flowing.

Crazy game. But still has lots of holes to exploit.

Mike

[kwanann]

Gertje

You marked 2 levels of uptrend and you are selling?

[Gertje]

[quote="kwanann"]Gertje

You marked 2 levels of uptrend and you are

The markings were from last week, where I seemed to be wrong by buying. Hedged the buys partially, to see that the buys got an exit. Now stuck with the sell.....

Where do YOU see the EURUSD go next week?

I believe now my marked L2 = L1 and we are ATM at L2 so we go down monday/ tuesday. GBP has a bankholiday on monday, so would be a quiet Londonsession tomorrow.

[pips400]

Here's my thoughts on the EURUSD next week.

EURUSD-H1-23-AUGUST.jpg

[Gertje]

One thing I can't get my head around is the push and/ or level count.

There are pushes between levels, generally speaking 3 pushes in 3 day's ( more or less).
If L3 becomes the new L1, aren't 'we' 1 push/ level short?

L1 -> pUsh1 -> L2 -> push2 -> L3 -> push3 -> ????

Are 'we' counting pushes or levels to define where we are in the PA-cycle?

[banteka]

Following daily ranges, I entered short too soon in GBPCAD. I forgot you need some climax followed by an inmmediate cancellation as a reliable reversal pattern. Morning and evening stars, tweezers, RRTs... It seems that kind of figure finally appeared. Let´s see next week if it works...

GBPCAD 4H

Imagen 001.jpg

Be careful there ciliano showed a chart with a lot of headroom on top for this one..

Same thing for gbpnzd too.. That one traps a lot since it has an ADR of 200pips, you might think you are in the right direction.. Then wham

I think that GBP/NZD is not the same thing than GBP/CAD.


Watching both charts (Weekly), GBPCAD has reached and gone beyond the EMA200, and the last candle has a very nice spike of almost half the height. However, GBPNZD lacks of that candle and it seems that this pair needs another bullish push to its own EMA200. I think that another 70-80 bullish PIPS may appear in the next week.


NOTE: In about 11 hours there's an important release in NZD. This could be the moment for that candle appears...

Perhaps a sell stop order 70 PIPS above the current price?

[mjws00]

Larryk,

It was a spread spike. Not sure if you got hit on Sunday open, or NY open. But momentary spikes are pretty common on exotics during these months. Tagged me not too long ago as well. Oanda doesn't deal against you, so they can only give the liquidity they can access or match internally. It won't show up on your chart or on any others....

This is similar to any ECN or pass through broker. Nature of the beast in my opinion, but tough if you are trying to play tight and disciplined. They try and be transparent on historical spreads etc, and the data is easy to find. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent

Only way to avoid the spikes is to trade with a bucket shop who has an interest in taking the other side... which is not a good trade off, imho.

Good luck.

Mike