10.4 A Complete System

[Chris]

Pretty serious pull back here in the yen pairs.

[spillini]

Yessss... All my limits were hit. Now set all buy stops above the High. were clear across the board with a 26% increase for the week. Got one of those feelings again. Got visions of a huge selloff on Friday. Lets see if it comes to pass.

[mjws00]

Yep. With a little luck, maybe I can get long again with you rich guys next week. Thankfully there was a moment of silence for me while my account was being emptied.

Congrats on some great calls, Bob. Amazing results. You thought you had problems with unrealistic expectations before? Try 5000 pip weeks to get things moving.

R:R on my short was over 100:1. (Don't worry I rode it up too.)

Have a great weekend all.

Mike

[Chris]

Yessss... All my limits were hit. Now set all buy stops above the High. were clear across the board with a 26% increase for the week. Got one of those feelings again. Got visions of a huge selloff on Friday. Lets see if it comes to pass.

so does that mean you were short the xxxjpy pairs?

[Chris]

gold XAU is the alternative jpy, with potentially larger losses ahead...

You were right, huge sell of in gold today, down 60.

[spillini]

Chris, No, as I said, I was clear from that point on. I started scaling in as the retrace became eveident, just as Bob did a few posts back. Gonna leave them on over the weekend though and take a risk.

Jim

Yessss... All my limits were hit. Now set all buy stops above the High. were clear across the board with a 26% increase for the week. Got one of those feelings again. Got visions of a huge selloff on Friday. Lets see if it comes to pass.

so does that mean you were short the xxxjpy pairs?

[Chris]

Chris, No, as I said, I was clear from that point on. I started scaling in as the retrace became eveident, just as Bob did a few posts back. Gonna leave them on over the weekend though and take a risk.

Jim

Yessss... All my limits were hit. Now set all buy stops above the High. were clear across the board with a 26% increase for the week. Got one of those feelings again. Got visions of a huge selloff on Friday. Lets see if it comes to pass.

so does that mean you were short the xxxjpy pairs?

Okay, just curious if I missed something. So that is good sounds like we are all on the same page, I have several open that I will hold over the weekend as well. I think like Bob says, they have made a choice that is going to run for month and this is just an opportunity to buy at a better price.

[zentauro67]

Holding long JPY positions over the weekend, over the month and maybe over the year... I´ll only sell when USDJPY reaches 110.

[Chris]

That sounds like a good target

[nanningbob]

Dang sell off. Knew it was coming but had a bunch of trades going anyway. Still cant complain as I had my third or fourth losing day since I started 10.4. 18 wins 23 losers and went down 1% of my account. but still 1700 pips for the week and 11% increase on the account. If you look at the daily chart price retraced to a previous S line. So see what the gaps bring us. I managed to keep my DD down by only being in trades with one or two levels. My gbp/jpy is at 4 levels and that is not good. I love to overtrade, that is my strength and weakness. For the week 94-44. My thinking on JPY pairs will be that it establishes a low and with the high will probably range for a while until the next round of bank purchases. They accomplished what they wanted for now and that was to start the JPY depreciating. If it starts to get stronger again they will do something to weaken it again. That was clearly laid out in the BOJ notes from yesterday. So a low will be established and I like the spot it is now or the low of this week on any pair. So the low of this week and the high of this week will establish it and then a breakout in either direction will be based on some news happening. Anyway that is what I expect.

Since starting 10.4 my account is up 117% but a lot of it is off of the JPY move fundamental of the last two weeks. Taking that out and my estimate is 10.4 increased my account by 48% or 24% a month for the first 8 weeks or 2 months. Not a big enough sample but good enough for me. I usually played for 10% increase so that more than doubles my previous trade experience. If I keep my average above 20% that would be absolutely wild but I am not going there yet. It worked during the ranging month of March and was wild in the 2 weeks of trending now. If I take out all JPY trades I would still be up over 700 pips for the month or about 7%. I reduced my lot sizes by 25% when I got into this volatile period this week.

I have dumped the lot size indi and gone back to my usual formulas of 1 penny per 100 in my account. What that means is if I have 1000 dollars in my account I would trade dimes or 10 cents per pip. That seems to be a good number. What that does is for 100 pips I increase/decrease my account by 1%. I traded that way until this week and then reduced it to 7.5 cents per 1000 dollars or 25% decrease. Hard lessons from the past has showed me that reducing lot sizes, instead of increasing them is best during volatile periods. I will stick with this until the markets settle and then decided to keep it there or increase it back.

My plans are to get my work done at school Saturday morning, play some ball Saturday afternoon, go out with the wife Saturday night and hopefully starting Sunday afternoon getting the 10.5 update started. I figure that booklet will take me a week or two set up. I get dozens of suggestions by email for changes in the system but I plan on keeping it basic and simple. I probably will dump the AO since I really dont use it and just keep the RSI2 on the 4H and Sto 5 on the 1H. CSS has been improved with colors and I have greatly reduced its computer usage with an adaptation so it reads quickly within a couple of seconds now. This way you can set up a 1H 4H and Daily CSS and get a read on what is going on. This also will reduce the RSI 2 indi ram usage. Some people are forced to use Sto 5 because of RAM usage of the Sto indi but I think I got that one fixed. Anyway will be working on that.

The system will keep its simplicity with reads of 240 and RSI2 the basic. Where to concentrate your trading on CSS and entrances and exits using weekly pivots with daily pivots being used on certain situations. Like tight range times or when the weekly lines are out of whack from big moves like we saw with JPY this week. Anyway gone for now and back to bed.