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Author:

alorente [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:45 pm ]

Post subject:

10.7

nanningbob » Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:08 pm wrote:
alorente » Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:54 pm wrote:
nanningbob » Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:26 am wrote:
ianp » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:58 am wrote:
nanningbob » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:57 am wrote:
Instead of talking about repainting how about you learn to read what the indicator is telling you and then trading. It is so much easier. This is so simple and you guys are just, ........gotta change this and gotta change that.

.
Well said Bob,

May be you need a sticky post at the top of each page to let people know not to ask dumb questions

and to just READ THE WHOLE THREAD !!!
I dont mind questions, but I wish people would take the word repaint and throw it in the trash. I did over 5 years ago and learn to understand what the indi is telling me. The guy who developed TMA told me I was wasting my time with such a repaint indicator. The guy literally hates my guts. Yet the CSS is the most useful trading tool I have ever seen develop from that. You get this train of thought in your mind and then you follow it to positions that keep you from learning all the ins and outs of trading. You cant learn if you think there is something wrong by saying it repaints. To me the indi just updated and its telling me to continue or not continue the trade. My losses are almost all in the less than -10 pip range the last couple of weeks. Hey I can handle that. My biggest loss this month is 35 pips. I enter and if that STO 7 gets near the top and D2.1 reverses and price has gone nowhere. Well just get out. I got a ton of trades in the +10/-10 category. Catch a runner, get rid of the rest and bingo account goes up and that is all that matters.

I am using this, and am very happy with it. You want to change and have it fit your style of trading feel free but what you see it what I am as a trader. You are seeing me on that screen and everything I have learned about this business. Add to that dozens of others who have programmed into this thing and it is what it is. I am happy with 10.6 Edsel and really happy with 10.7. Now I go make money. You guys can do what you want.
Great work, Bob. So far I am mostly using 10.6 to supplement Extreme TMA, but I have changed the H4 bar to D1 to determine the trend. It gives me a more reliable trend in most cases. I´m trading with H4 bars like you are, still trying to let the trade ride to al least 80% of its potential and cut down on my trigger finger scalping habit. I am also using CSS as a filter and it is cutting down on the losers.

I expect major turbulence in Yen pairs on Friday with the release of the CPI. My charts tell me the move will likely be to a stronger Yen, with most major Yen pairs moving to the down side, but we´ll see...
Yeah well the BOJ always waits for critical mass first when they have to do something instead of just sticking to the plan. If they had continued strongly with their original plan from last year they wouldnt be at critical mass now. The bottom line is they let 30+ years of deflation eat away at their economy and then tried to do it with one 6 month burst last year. The only way out of their 240% debt ration is to greatly depreciate their currency over a 5-10 year period. That is what the USA is doing and we have been able to keep a nominally growing economy 1.5-2.5% during this time until better days come. Then just like after WW2 it will take 20-30 years to bring the debt ratios back down. So I would rather be doing what we are doing than JPY has done. Bottom line is they have to continue their depreciation of the YEN or go bust. Closer to what the Brits did after WW2, they used to be 5-6:1 to the dollar and then went to 2:1 to the dollar in a very short time. It saved their necks at the time. Anyway you know me I am in for JPY weakness, then aud and nzd strength.

I agree with you. Japan is in a heap of trouble and they have to throw everything into the inflation fire to keep their currency low. Everything sounds too easy though. It is easy to get the inflation genie out of the bottle but very hard to put him back in. Remember Volcker´s 16% funds rate to kill inflation once it took off... I don´t doubt they will achieve their 2% target, the problem will be making it stop where they want. What if it keeps going? To 3%, 4% or higher... If that happens they are in deep dodo. I see they are reluctant lately to increase their asset purchases. Maybe that´s exactly what they fear... Friday´s CPI could be the first sign that the genie likes it out of the bottle. If that happens the Yen will take off... We´ll see... It will either be that or a blowup in Ukraine, but the charts look like it very well may happen...

Author:	alorente [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:	GbpJpy Possible Collapse
Here are three charts of GbpJpy. The Blue stoch is 7,2,2 the Yelow is 60,2,2 and the Magenta is 240,2,2 In all three time frames, H4, D1, and W1 all three are concentrated in very overbought levels signalled by the green squares. It is an extremely rare ocurrence that this happens in all three time frames at the same time. All it needs is a trigger and all these stochs will drop in the 3 time frames simultaneously. It will be interesting to see what develops in the next three days...

Author:	nanningbob [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:48 pm ]
Post subject:	GbpJpy Possible Collapse
alorente » Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:32 am wrote:Here are three charts of GbpJpy. The Blue stoch is 7,2,2 the Yelow is 60,2,2 and the Magenta is 240,2,2 In all three time frames, H4, D1, and W1 all three are concentrated in very overbought levels signalled by the green squares. It is an extremely rare ocurrence that this happens in all three time frames at the same time. All it needs is a trigger and all these stochs will drop in the 3 time frames simultaneously. It will be interesting to see what develops in the next three days... Al I have no doubt JPY will strengthen into the beginning of May. Then will BOJ back up their rhetoric and increase their bond sales like Emporor K has said he would in May. He said this in March and again in April that the BOJ was prepared for an increased amount of JPY weakness. So yes your analysis is correct and then the ball is in BOJ courts. That's what I am looking for.

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Author:	zentauro67 [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:39 am ]
Post subject:	10.7
I agree, Al. JPY index (represented by GBPJPY) is moving inside a triangle that is coming to an end. In a short time, a big move must come. I also belive JPY will strenght and the breakout will be to the downside. Trendlines in monthly charts (and, of course, Weekly and Daily TMA bands) suggest a correction is near. If "sell in may" works again in stock markets no doubt JPY will strength. Has been working in strong correlation with Nikkei these months. So it will be necessary a big drop in stocks for most of pairs bend. But maybe it´s still early to call a top.

Author:	nanningbob [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:08 pm ]
Post subject:	10.7
alorente » Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:54 pm wrote: nanningbob » Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:26 am wrote: ianp » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:58 am wrote: nanningbob » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:57 am wrote: Instead of talking about repainting how about you learn to read what the indicator is telling you and then trading. It is so much easier. This is so simple and you guys are just, ........gotta change this and gotta change that. . Well said Bob, May be you need a sticky post at the top of each page to let people know not to ask dumb questions and to just READ THE WHOLE THREAD !!! I dont mind questions, but I wish people would take the word repaint and throw it in the trash. I did over 5 years ago and learn to understand what the indi is telling me. The guy who developed TMA told me I was wasting my time with such a repaint indicator. The guy literally hates my guts. Yet the CSS is the most useful trading tool I have ever seen develop from that. You get this train of thought in your mind and then you follow it to positions that keep you from learning all the ins and outs of trading. You cant learn if you think there is something wrong by saying it repaints. To me the indi just updated and its telling me to continue or not continue the trade. My losses are almost all in the less than -10 pip range the last couple of weeks. Hey I can handle that. My biggest loss this month is 35 pips. I enter and if that STO 7 gets near the top and D2.1 reverses and price has gone nowhere. Well just get out. I got a ton of trades in the +10/-10 category. Catch a runner, get rid of the rest and bingo account goes up and that is all that matters. I am using this, and am very happy with it. You want to change and have it fit your style of trading feel free but what you see it what I am as a trader. You are seeing me on that screen and everything I have learned about this business. Add to that dozens of others who have programmed into this thing and it is what it is. I am happy with 10.6 Edsel and really happy with 10.7. Now I go make money. You guys can do what you want. Great work, Bob. So far I am mostly using 10.6 to supplement Extreme TMA, but I have changed the H4 bar to D1 to determine the trend. It gives me a more reliable trend in most cases. I´m trading with H4 bars like you are, still trying to let the trade ride to al least 80% of its potential and cut down on my trigger finger scalping habit. I am also using CSS as a filter and it is cutting down on the losers. I expect major turbulence in Yen pairs on Friday with the release of the CPI. My charts tell me the move will likely be to a stronger Yen, with most major Yen pairs moving to the down side, but we´ll see... Yeah well the BOJ always waits for critical mass first when they have to do something instead of just sticking to the plan. If they had continued strongly with their original plan from last year they wouldnt be at critical mass now. The bottom line is they let 30+ years of deflation eat away at their economy and then tried to do it with one 6 month burst last year. The only way out of their 240% debt ration is to greatly depreciate their currency over a 5-10 year period. That is what the USA is doing and we have been able to keep a nominally growing economy 1.5-2.5% during this time until better days come. Then just like after WW2 it will take 20-30 years to bring the debt ratios back down. So I would rather be doing what we are doing than JPY has done. Bottom line is they have to continue their depreciation of the YEN or go bust. Closer to what the Brits did after WW2, they used to be 5-6:1 to the dollar and then went to 2:1 to the dollar in a very short time. It saved their necks at the time. Anyway you know me I am in for JPY weakness, then aud and nzd strength.

Author:	alorente [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:33 pm ]
Post subject:	10.7
In the past, Boldtrader has mentioned that it helps a lot to add vertical lines on the CSS screen and I agree. I did it every day for a while, until I realized that by turning on the chart grid it is done automatically. I use a Grey dotted grid and it looks good. See picture.

Author:	HannesJoubert [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:	10.7
Hi All. I have read the various threads and I must say that this seems to be a winner!! Well done to the developers (from conception to software) and of course, many thanks for your effort and for sharing between us all. I am focusing solely on 10.9 for the time being (and am VERY interested in 10.8 swap idea) and I think that due to its simplicity, I am getting the trade signals for entry correct. If I can do it, then a monkey can do it Now, in order to be a bit pickier ito entry I would like to confirm that with 10.9, as with other 10.x variants, the CSS was, is and remains our primary filter. I picked up on NB recently saying that he looks at his CSS first (and foremost) and then if, and only if, the signals provided by the weekly line and the STO7 agree to the CSS indication, he will enter a trade... Now, I am of the opinion, if the originator of the system feels the need to do this (and also taking into account, that he knows HOW to trade), then we should be doing it as well...hence my asking for confirmation that this is so... Thanks again to everyone involved. I smiled when I saw NB's comment that long ago he had an idea and was sure that no thought of it before... been there, done that, but 10.7 is exceptional. Well done Sir. Cheers H

Author:	nanningbob [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:51 pm ]
Post subject:	10.7
An answer to a PM sent to me about adjusting the indi D2.1 and W2.1 indis: First of thank you for your question and that could have been placed on the forum. Second the indis can only do so much and so the D2.1 and W2.1 are fixed from their daily/weekly starting points so the whole line will move up and down from its ground zero. It is how the indi reads itself and cant be changed in the present MQL programming format. Besides if it did it would like like a seismic counter on certain days. Third and this is the hardest part people are having a hard time grasping. It is suppose to do that and is designed to do that. In other words you want to know immediately if price action is going to hold or it is not. I havent finished my lessons yet but one of the most important things is price will hit its peak 2-4 hours into a session and then retrace. If at the beginning of the euro session I place a trade and price takes and goes nowhere then I am usually done with that trade unless I have a fundamental (CSS) reading otherwise. If a trade doesnt take or go anywhere then be done with it and move on. Otherwise know why you are going to hang onto it. I place a trade and the line goes down during those early parts of a session then either get out or wait for another signal because price will almost always follow its opening direction (yes I know about the euro reversal) So any add ons to the indi will only slow it down and defeat its original purpose. I am amazed of writer after writer telling me, I am making money on the system but you should make these changes so the indis behave like the other ones do. Well then you have killed the system because these indis are not suppose to behave like the other ones do.

Author:	nanningbob [ Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:59 pm ]
Post subject:	10.7
alorente » Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:45 am wrote: I agree with you. Japan is in a heap of trouble and they have to throw everything into the inflation fire to keep their currency low. Everything sounds too easy though. It is easy to get the inflation genie out of the bottle but very hard to put him back in. Remember Volcker´s 16% funds rate to kill inflation once it took off... I don´t doubt they will achieve their 2% target, the problem will be making it stop where they want. What if it keeps going? To 3%, 4% or higher... If that happens they are in deep dodo. I see they are reluctant lately to increase their asset purchases. Maybe that´s exactly what they fear... Friday´s CPI could be the first sign that the genie likes it out of the bottle. If that happens the Yen will take off... We´ll see... It will either be that or a blowup in Ukraine, but the charts look like it very well may happen... Actually I would like to kindly disagree with you on one point. Inflation is easy to cure. You raise interest rates and slow the money growth and you raise taxes and take the excess money out of the system. Within a couple of years problem is licked. Problem is people hate for their taxes to be raised but that is how you get the excess out. Deflation on the other hand has never really been solved. Japan hasnt solved it in 30 years. The depression was solved by WW2 and that was done by destroying everything so you have a post war building boom. USA had a big crash 1859 (so much for the greatness of the gold standard) and Civil War spending got us out of that. Peasantry/slavery/serfdom during the middle ages and other periods of history are permanent deflation. Inflation can be licked in a short period of time. Even now the world economies are still fighting the deflation bug. The solution in the past has been war, the solution today is massive borrowing, it will be interesting to see if massive borrowing/debasing will solve the problem or we have to go back to the war option and destroy a bunch of building and land so we can rebuild and get the economies going again. A third option is everyone is stuck in the social strata they are in and growth becomes limited. Interesting to see if someone has a fourth option. Thank you Al for all your input, greatly appreciated.

Author:	zentauro67 [ Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:20 am ]
Post subject:	10.7
GBPJPY (also known as Geppy or The Dragon) is probably the most difficult pair to trade. FF has a very long dedicated thread where you can find (as usual in FF) a mix of great posts with the most stupid and agressive ones. After some reading, I summarized this: most of indicators that use to work well in other pairs fail here. Moving averages, MACD, divergences, oscillators, etc. are to be avoided. Most serious and professional traders dedicated to The Dragon use only fibos or cycles (I think Boltrader would be part of them). The study of Geppy cycles has two different approaches: one is based in fundamentals (as Bob´s and -if I´m not wrong- Traderdesk´s here) The other use cycles based on Gann or Ehlers theories that have a good dose of mysticism. Some of Ehlers toys (inspired in Gann´s theories) work fine in GBPJPY. I have tried the sinewave series, Hilbert transform, Fischer, COG, some extrapolators, etc. Finally I found one (Cyan4) that mixs a kind of stoch behaviour with a cycle forecast. It gives some decent signals on reversals, tops and bottoms for GBPJPY. It´s a kind of stoch that instead of lagging try to give the moves in advance, before they happen. Of course, this is very risky, but I must say it works reasonably well with The Dragon. At his moment, it´s saying that the bearish move started this week, on sunday opening. Price is going up in an apparently healthy bullish trend, but this could be the last push before a big correction. I also use harmonic patterns as confirmation for reversals (a last leg of the pattern on a ATR + -3 or near increases the odds) Here a bearish shark just appeared. The shark is one of the most agressive reversal patterns. If it works, it uses to produce big moves. I have in my chart a dotted aqua line with the weekly open. My feeling is that this will be a 'doji week' and price will close on friday very near or even below the opening line. Too late to go long and too early to go short. As Livermore should have said: "It´s time to go fishing".

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