10.4 A Complete System

[Ingot54]

Looks like the S&P futures and the DOW are still heading south after the close, probably due to the Explosions

Questions ...

Was the explosion the cause of the S&P500 fall ... or ...
Was the S&P500 fall the cause of the explosion?

The conspiracist in me thinks there needed to be a "cover" for the plunge in S&P500 ... but most main stream reporters are too dumb to link the two.

For example, the fall in the S&P500 occurred from Friday (beginning) and Monday (biggest move - 44 points Monday) ... long before the explosion.

Some recovery!

The finance police are asleep at the wheel ... or in the pockets of somebody maybe???

[Ingot54]

Is the CSSM also deranged atm?

It seems to me that it is stood on its head!

The slope on NZDJPY is not +ve atm ... unless looking at Daily or weekly ... but even then ...

[Ingot54]

No 50, no 61.8... 240LMA bounce! (Hope it didn't hit your SLs)

It looked to me to drop through the 240 ... and bounced off the WS3
but in any event, it was a strong confluence point for a support/turn.

[Chris]

What do you think trend resumption in progress, or just a short term rally.

I have used this rally to lighten my load of JPY.
I hope it will rocket back to the top, but if it does not, I will be a little better off then before.
I can alway re-enter my trade right.

[Ingot54]

What do you think trend resumption in progress, or just a short term rally.

I have used this rally to lighten my load of JPY.
I hope it will rocket back to the top, but if it does not, I will be a little better off then before.
I can alway re-enter my trade right.

Chris

I am not trading this - there is no need to ... no reason to trade it.
The moves are still playing out.

Until we see a base forming in Gold and the S&P500 and DJIAA (and perhaps OIL)
then it is risk-off for me = no trading.

Look at the Stochastics on the attached Daily chart of the XXXJPY pairs (crosses).

The red is the STO5 ... the fastest one ... on the daily chart.

It is still pointing into the can. This market is fooling around with us.

Remember one thing here ... and remember it well.

Germany wants its gold back. Who is keeping it for them ... and do they still have that physical gold available to return to Germany? (We already know the Bank of England "has" it.)

Interestingly enough, Cyprus has just had, effectively, all (almost) of its physical gold reserves confiscated, along with the "excess" bank deposits of its citizens and trusting foreigners (mainly Russian).

I wonder where the Gold from Cyprus will end up? I am unsure about the India/China destination ... I would bet on either Bank of England ... or Russia. There is no hint that their (Cyprus') gold will be sold on the open market - no one wants the cash - they want the PHYSICAL gold. They will want this gold transferred in toto ... physically ... to the debtor, not onto the open market for paper.

The cheaper the price ... the more of the metal they have to transfer! How very fortuitous for the debtor!
And a precedent has just been set - if you bank in Europe ... your money and your gold are no longer safe - the state can and will confiscate all "for the security of the state" ... just a bit like Communism ... except it is the Capitalists doing it.

Here's another snippet where someone may be lying to someone ...

http://youtu.be/qJ6-scNU28I

[Ingot54]

Another thing ... while I am on the soapbox ...

The G20 "agreed" that Japan (BOJ) was not weakening the YEN purely for international debt obligations, but for domestic debt obligations.

So that made it all "ok" ... wrong.

What the G20 did was to use a euphemism (ie highlight the difference between International and Domestic weakening) to hide their wrath. On the surface they are saying it's all cool!

Of course this was done for both International and Domestic debt mitigation.
Was anyone fooled?

You can bet that behind the scenes the trade secretaries and foreign affairs ministers are spitting white-hot raging, screaming fits of venom at each other, as the Currency Wars heat up now.

All the BOJ has done is dress up mutton as lamb. Ostensibly it is a soft policy to get the inflation rate up to 2%. But covertly, the BOJ simply wants to relieve itself of the burden of its 250% of GDP dept, the interest on which has become unmanageable.

Look for the same to occur in the USA and Europe in due course.

Worldwide, friends and allies will become adversaries, and new alliances set up to combat currency wars. Australia is already moving away from the USA and towards Asia, specifically China. The Aussie government released a 'White Paper" on "Australia in the Asian Century" recently, specifically to make an overt declaration that they are aware of where allegiances need to be going forward.

http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/

Currency wars are just a part of this imbalance resetting itself.
My feeling is that the ascendancy of China is going to be much more rapid than we at first thought.

Be prepared for more of the same kinds of volatility.

We need to evolve a new way to approach our trading, as more of our trading systems begin to stress.
Think ... which currencies are going to appreciate more, as the EUR/USD/JPY crosses get smashed?

Note: CHF (SNB) has already gone on record, and taken action to confirm their words ... that they will NOT tolerate a CHF stronger than EURCHF 1.20. There will be limits on the crosses too. (see the correction of 9th August 2011)

Just my views ... could be wrong.

[kwanann]

Honestly be it a retrace or not, its still a nice trade if you still have sufficient margin. Whats wrong with an additional 100pips in your account. or lessen your losses by 100 pips

i've added a lot slightly after the 240MA and scaled in somewhere along the way.

Happy with my lot

[Ingot54]

Honestly be it a retrace or not, its still a nice trade if you still have sufficient margin. Whats wrong with an additional 100pips in your account. or lessen your losses by 100 pips

I've added a lot slightly after the 240MA and scaled in somewhere along the way.

Happy with my lot

Where did you enter, Kwanann?

Do you have a chart for us?

[kwanann]

Here's my current AUDJPY setup

I had another trade at 100.816 closed at 100.958, thats because its a .5 trade, using that to cover my loss trades in Gold

Mine's a variant of CJ and 10.x

Look at the bottom picture for a 10.x setup, came back too late to enter at mid pivot so entered where it was.

Probably will add one more at weekly support with the same SL and see how it goes from there onwards. I'm ok with a long term trade since AUDJPY give NICE swap

[nanningbob]

I am going from line to line on the 10.5 chart. I have recovered 30% of my losses so far and 1/3 of my DD. The key point now is will it break WS1 and head back to the WP or even WMS1. That would be a quick recovery and get me back to where I might look at trading other pairs again. So far strictly xxx.jpy pairs except I did pick up the gbp/nzd sell when it crossed the 240 line back into its DT. Low risk high reward trade. SL on one side of 240 enter on the other side. If it moves down big I have several entrances ready.