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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Angat wrote:Hey CJ, How come GBPCHF didnt turn south during the NY session after jumping up the 100+ points in the first half of the london session? Wouldnt it reverse from the high, fall a little bit like 40pips at least then back into the asian range?
Take a look at the bigger picture....this pair has been in extended downtrend, sentiment is already SHORT....they already had a ton of SHORTS trapped...to go back is to give them a chance to exit at a lower price. The fox had already "trapped volume" SHORT and had no need to go back...watch for the price to dip into consolidation, locking current traders into position. I can see a drop out of the range later, to pull some SHORTS back in, but I would "expect" further rise in price as sentiment is probably still SHORT....

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Pueo wrote:Are these valid W's?
capture13.jpg
Yes....there is also another "M" higher up in the pattern.... nice trade setups with a lot of pips in each...

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Angat wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Pueo wrote:Am I on the right track here? looking for a W..
Not sure you are going to get that "W"...you just had a 3 push low...RRT reversal up, price will pull back into the range for Asian...look for stop hunt later. This is a Level 1 drop of a possible 3 day down cycle...you could have 2 more drops... I would watch for a drop in the London again tonight and see if it plays out....

The "W" would have come at the very low and if you look at that on the 5M tf, you will probably see a "W" where the RRT's are located. Don't get confused on the time frames...."W" and "M"'s presented on the higher time frames offer better trades out of those patterns. They will appear on the lower, but unless you are an experienced scalper, it's tough to make consistent profits due to the price range involved and the way they spread price on the bid/ask.

CJ


Wasnt this 4 level drop? I see 4 moves down including the stop hunt drop.
The stop hunt hit the stops above then below the Asian range....then pulled back up to the range...that's no drop in level. The level drops came after the hunt, as they always do. Either up or down.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Pueo wrote:Thanks! Why are you expecting a possible 3 day down cycle?
Not sure it will, but I'm "SHORT" biased in this pair and if may be having an effect on what I "want" price to do. Price is consolidating here, and could go either way. I look for EURJPY to fall so I'm also looking for this pair to go south. 3 day cycles are just that...3 days of price action in the same direction, followed by a consolidation level and a change.

There has been 3 days of price drifting higher off the last peak low, before this drop. Price does not always follow 3 day cycle, but it is mid-week as well and price tends to reverse mid-week...which would give us a new peak low on Friday, where US session could reverse it back into the range for the weekend.... :)

CJ
Author:  Reaper [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
Angat wrote:Hey CJ, How come GBPCHF didnt turn south during the NY session after jumping up the 100+ points in the first half of the london session? Wouldnt it reverse from the high, fall a little bit like 40pips at least then back into the asian range?
Take a look at the bigger picture....this pair has been in extended downtrend, sentiment is already SHORT....they already had a ton of SHORTS trapped...to go back is to give them a chance to exit at a lower price. The fox had already "trapped volume" SHORT and had no need to go back...watch for the price to dip into consolidation, locking current traders into position. I can see a drop out of the range later, to pull some SHORTS back in, but I would "expect" further rise in price as sentiment is probably still SHORT....

CJ
Thank you. I see what your saying, the fox looks at the weekly picture realises there has been 2 down days and thinks time to go up today and trap all the shorts. People shorting probably hoping for it to hit a fib and fall. The fox knows this and carries on up. Sly fox! :twisted:
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Angat wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Angat wrote:Hey CJ, How come GBPCHF didnt turn south during the NY session after jumping up the 100+ points in the first half of the london session? Wouldnt it reverse from the high, fall a little bit like 40pips at least then back into the asian range?
Take a look at the bigger picture....this pair has been in extended downtrend, sentiment is already SHORT....they already had a ton of SHORTS trapped...to go back is to give them a chance to exit at a lower price. The fox had already "trapped volume" SHORT and had no need to go back...watch for the price to dip into consolidation, locking current traders into position. I can see a drop out of the range later, to pull some SHORTS back in, but I would "expect" further rise in price as sentiment is probably still SHORT....

CJ
Thank you. I see what your saying, the fox looks at the weekly picture realises there has been 2 down days and thinks time to go up today and trap all the shorts. People shorting probably hoping for it to hit a fib and fall. The fox knows this and carries on up. Sly fox! :twisted:
If you look at what he did, you will see there is no stop hunt, there is no "W" pattern....he pushed it low, pinned it, but did not come back to make the 2nd leg of a "W", then made a straight away move up, running away from the shorts.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Aus67 wrote:Hi CJ
For me, a difficult aspect of learning to trade naked (not literally) :shock: is the lack of sexy indicators that fill my brain with price expectations.
Even though you have taught this expectation 'will be wrong' and my account, like many, will prove that is is wrong, the indicator is something for us to visually grab on to.

Naked trading as you teach it, does resonate with me and I know that if I, in time, can learn to trade this way it will be profitable. I know it is early days for me trading this way but I am still sensing a 'void' of information on the screen.

I have attached the AUDJPY 15min chart with what I think will happen to price in the next day or so. My projection is only based on my level of knowledge of 'the fox' and her tactics, so will most likely be way off the mark. If so, I hope you can say no it wont do that because of this!!

I find myself looking at a chart and thinking 'what now'?? What will the fox do now and where will I jump in?? and not really having a clue.

Is this the normal 'learning curve' for naked trading? or am I just unwittingly dim! :lol:

Thanks again for an amazing thread!
Daryl

audjpy.jpg
Do not try to project price....you are a trader, not a mind reader. Your job is to identify the tracks of the fox and follow....otherwise you are just another trapper, trying to guess where he's going to show next....

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
f451 wrote:
mjws00 wrote:I've never seen chart vision like CJ's he is right a long long ways out. But all we really need is to anticipate a couple moves.
1. They either have the volume to drive it down. No need to fake, just drive it.
2. They will chop it sideways and accumulate what they need and frustrate retails.
3. They aren't quite there with the volume and will spike the high one more time maybe to 96.80ish. It will put up a pretty pattern in all cases.
And the key to which one they choose is whether or not they have the volume already.
Wonder if CJ has a way of knowing that, if it just comes down to experience and intuition.
No, I don't have any special way of determining where the trapped volume lies. Only the fox knows for sure...we know when he moves price away from the largest amount of trapped contracts....

Do not try to anticipate his moves... you are back to trapping. Identify his tracks and follow...you can't lead the fox, he leads you. Just follow along....

Your job is to identify the patterns they use to trap traders in positions and move price away from them. learn their cycles, identify where you are in their cycle and follow them. If you want to try and guess, just flip a coin, it saves a lot of time and thought...you stand as good a chance.

CJ
Author:  casapips [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:Here's a chart I posted at Forex Factory about 8-9 months ago....the 2nd chart is an update, the "?" indicated the current pullback to come.......

Once again, something to watch over the many coming months.... ;)


CJ
Hi CJ

Impressive Mon Capitaine :shock:

How did you come up with this potential prediction?

Merci
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Nice to see you posting, John. It's fun watching the lights go on for some. I'd love a camera to watch the utter confusion spark into understanding. I enjoy seeing how many, once they get the content, will put in the time and energy to turn it into knowledge and wisdom.

Hey. Here is one on a slightly different path. Are you picking pairs based on how fast they are moving? Or pure setups? Or just favorites? My relentless pursuit of the fox has me continuously searching for where they are most active. I like them fast foxes best. But perhaps I am missing something.

Thanks for your time. Feel free to correct my ramblings. I'm all about seeing how I could look at it differently. I try and preface them with a disclaimer of just beginner foxy glasses and defer to the master. But I enjoy the discussions, and use it to hone my skills.

Hope you're having a great one.

Mike
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