10.4 A Complete System

[ab00265]

Hi Guys,

New member here hence my first post. Before I get to my point, thank you for the system, I am a beginner and have been using the system on a simulator with a lot of success. Whether this continues with my money we have yet to see! The guide was very well written and looks like it took a lot of time and effort so thanks again.

I just wanted to raise a few points I read in a FT article outlining some reasons why the Yen may not continue to depreciate as rapidly as some people believe.

FT - Japanese yet is far from a one way bet:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/feba2680-a66f ... z2Qjp2ckM0

1. based on Sterling, Euro and Dollar, QE is ultimately 'positive' economically and thus yen positive, negating some of the effects.

2. analysts seem to think the change in monetary base warrants around a 15% depreciation, rather than a 28% depreciation

3. trade competitors obviously aren't happy and could take measures to improve their terms of trade. I guess we will find out more about this at G20


What do you guys/girls make of these points, would you agree?

Andy

[nanningbob]

Hi Guys,

New member here hence my first post. Before I get to my point, thank you for the system, I am a beginner and have been using the system on a simulator with a lot of success. Whether this continues with my money we have yet to see! The guide was very well written and looks like it took a lot of time and effort so thanks again.

I just wanted to raise a few points I read in a FT article outlining some reasons why the Yen may not continue to depreciate as rapidly as some people believe.

FT - Japanese yet is far from a one way bet:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/feba2680-a66f ... z2Qjp2ckM0

1. based on Sterling, Euro and Dollar, QE is ultimately 'positive' economically and thus yen positive, negating some of the effects.

2. analysts seem to think the change in monetary base warrants around a 15% depreciation, rather than a 28% depreciation

3. trade competitors obviously aren't happy and could take measures to improve their terms of trade. I guess we will find out more about this at G20


What do you guys/girls make of these points, would you agree?

Andy

I think we will see some ranging for a bit but the long haul JPY has no choice. They are committed to breaking out of their 20 year funk and it will take this kind of action for the next couple of years to do it. Check your monthly charts and you will see there is plenty of downside for the JPY. They have been taking the hit for everyone else weakening their currencies. They have to take corrective measures.

It’s only natural that the BoJ’s pledge to inject +USD1.4-trillion over the next two years has led to talk of currency wars, the strongest protest are Japans closest neighbors. It’s a bit of a surprise, but for perception reasons only, the US is expected to pressure Japan on the yen at the G-20. In reality, the major industrial countries are most likely taking the same view as the IMF – strongly support Governor Kuroda’s moves to end deflation. Post G20, will bring a different game plan –USD/JPY should get the green light to be trading well over 100, until then it’s a game of patience.

G20 meeting is this weekend and then back to business.

[zentauro67]

Be cautious with GBPUSD. It looks a nice 10.4 setup for longs but you can see in daily that price has just done the typical 38.2 correction as a part of a big downward move and could resume the bearish bias for the next weeks.

Screenshot - 17_04_2013 , 20_43_05.jpg

[nanningbob]

Be cautious with GBPUSD. It looks a nice 10.4 setup for longs but you can see in daily that price has just done the typical 38.2 correction as a part of a big downward move and could resume the bearish bias for the next weeks.

Screenshot - 17_04_2013 , 20_43_05.jpg

That maybe true but it is near the 240 line so the risk is low. It is one of those low risk good reward trades. The issue I am reading here is the size of lots to account size. The S lines seem to be holding on the JPY pairs. You have a good trendline that the JPY are bouncing off of right now.

[cmeade2]

Going back to a post of Jem's in the past few weeks, it seems that you need to wait for it to cross the MA 5 shift 1. When that happens, game on.

Be cautious with GBPUSD. It looks a nice 10.4 setup for longs but you can see in daily that price has just done the typical 38.2 correction as a part of a big downward move and could resume the bearish bias for the next weeks.

Screenshot - 17_04_2013 , 20_43_05.jpg

[nanningbob]

usd/jpy showing price honoring the trend line

[nanningbob]

gbp chf sell I am using the break of the daily pivot on this one.

[nanningbob]

CSS showing euro currencies strongest and aud,jpy weakest.

[nanningbob]

usd chf sell a good set up. SNB has announced they may not try to hold the CHF with the euro which means it will be one of the currencies that will strengthen. So playing CHF strength should be good trade. I will short gbp/chf, usd/chf, nzd/chf, aud/chf, eur/chf and buy chf/jpy. They all have good setups for today.

[nanningbob]

usd chf sell a good set up. SNB has announced they may not try to hold the CHF with the euro which means it will be one of the currencies that will strengthen. So playing CHF strength should be good trade. I will short gbp/chf, usd/chf, nzd/chf, aud/chf, eur/chf and buy chf/jpy. They all have good setups for today.

So most of my trades today will play JPY weakness and CHF strength.