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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  nanningbob [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Chris wrote:I am not much of an economist can someone tell me why having a strong YEN is bad and why deflation is bad?
Deflation is less economic growth, inflation is part of economic growth. With deflation you have higher unemployment and lack of investment. Somebody is losing assets in deflation. It causes govt. to have less income from taxes and bigger deficits. You have to grow the money supply for increases in population and increase of economic growth. This is the part hyper inflation predictors miss.

One of the major problems of gold or silver is the population and economies grow faster than the amount of gold or silver available. This causes crashes. In paper currencies, if you have too much debt or print too much money you have asset bubbles and crashes. Neither economic system has ever solved this problem. Paper currencies work if your growth is growing faster than the debt. They fail when debt grows faster than growth.

Japan has been in deflation for almost 2 decades and they havent been able to deficit their way out. In other words spur growth faster than their debt. This is their last shot, at least I think so, to get out of the deflationary spiral. All other economies are caught in this spiral now and neither gold/silver based or paper based currencies have solved this problem of deflation. Borrowing works if you pay down the debt during good cycles but govts. are no longer paying down their debt cycles. So now we are here. The only matter left is when we finally decide to bite the bullet and take the pain. Will it be done systematically and organized or will we wait until chaos breaks out? WW2 was one of the results of the last chaos.
Author:  Chris [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
So that would explain the war and why they each want to devalue their dollars.
FYI NZDUSD is bouncing off the 240.
Author:  nanningbob [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 3:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Chris wrote:So that would explain the war and why they each want to devalue their dollars.
FYI NZDUSD is bouncing off the 240.
Well to be a Roman Senator with the 5th largest army in the empire was not a good position to be in when the emperor drained the treasury.
Author:  samir45 [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 4:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
Chris wrote:I am not much of an economist can someone tell me why having a strong YEN is bad and why deflation is bad?
Deflation is less economic growth, inflation is part of economic growth. With deflation you have higher unemployment and lack of investment. Somebody is losing assets in deflation. It causes govt. to have less income from taxes and bigger deficits. You have to grow the money supply for increases in population and increase of economic growth. This is the part hyper inflation predictors miss.

One of the major problems of gold or silver is the population and economies grow faster than the amount of gold or silver available. This causes crashes. In paper currencies, if you have too much debt or print too much money you have asset bubbles and crashes. Neither economic system has ever solved this problem. Paper currencies work if your growth is growing faster than the debt. They fail when debt grows faster than growth.

Japan has been in deflation for almost 2 decades and they havent been able to deficit their way out. In other words spur growth faster than their debt. This is their last shot, at least I think so, to get out of the deflationary spiral. All other economies are caught in this spiral now and neither gold/silver based or paper based currencies have solved this problem of deflation. Borrowing works if you pay down the debt during good cycles but govts. are no longer paying down their debt cycles. So now we are here. The only matter left is when we finally decide to bite the bullet and take the pain. Will it be done systematically and organized or will we wait until chaos breaks out? WW2 was one of the results of the last chaos.
Very good explanation Bob helps a lot to understand the basic macro-economic principles. Please educate us with these short explanations whenever possible.
Author:  kwanann [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 6:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Somehow despite all the optimism in yen, i somehow cannot shake off the feeling that something bad is going to happen soon (no not the earth quake) that will appreciate the yen.

Could be CJ and the M forming on the daily..
Author:  tboy [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 7:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
G20 comments coming out suggest Japan not being overly criticised for its yen policy. IMF's Lagarde even 'applauded' their efforts. But agree this all seems terribly stage managed...what's to come???
Author:  nanningbob [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 8:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
kwanann wrote:Somehow despite all the optimism in yen, i somehow cannot shake off the feeling that something bad is going to happen soon (no not the earth quake) that will appreciate the yen.

Could be CJ and the M forming on the daily..
Oh, well so much for the M on the daily. Thank you JPY for depreciating just as predicted. I closed all my positions with that last market move up and I am out with no DD. I could have hung on to some trades but the aud is making me nervous. I did have a losing week but not because of the JPY. My losses were because of my NZD trades as I lost on gbp/nzd, eur/nzd, and nzd/usa. I also had a losing trade on the gbp/chf. Those trades were losers at the 240 line. I profited on all jpy trades except aud/jpy and cad/jpy. Cad/jpy hit my SL on Monday and aud/jpy I lost 12 bucks so not crying there. All the others I ended up in profit. I have closed for the day and dont think I will take anymore trades this week. My account is down 4.7% for the week, but up 67% for the month. I am adding funds to my account and basically tripling it. I will go to a lower lot size to account size of 5 cents to every 1000 dollars so I suspect my more spectacular account increases will come to an end. I know if you can increase an account that fast you can lose an account that fast.

I expect the volatility of the market to pick up and dont want to get caught too badly on a sudden move. I am sure I will get many more suggestions on more indis for the system but I will stick with what I have. It is suiting me well. I will work on my update and look at the CSS being used on multiple TF along with the RSI 2. I think it will be a better indi than the AO is. Reacts quicker to market movement and the angle lessening gives warning that a move maybe slowing down. Have fun trading, I am going out with my wife and then ..................... who knows. :)
See you guys Monday.
Author:  kwanann [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 9:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Congrats bob, its friday, so profit taking should be on everyone's mind. Didnt feel so good with yen so no trades. Interesting how losing almost 90% makes you think more clearly about what trades you wanna do.

i had a winning trade with gbpchf but only because i went in on the pin rather than wait for the pivots. Interestingly usdchf went down, guess gbp went down too much in the early part of the week so they need to recover some stuff there.

I guess my account was one case where spectacular wins can turn into spectacular losses. Trading 2 lots with a 500$ account is a NONO, although if i were to do a stimulus, both would have got me more than 100% ROI with an exit now.

Seriously no idea what got into me that night, sheesh :'(

Lets see what comes up with trading just 50$
Author:  Gertje [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 9:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Pipstubborn wrote:Gertje, Congratulations. Can you ilustrate me? Do you TP at 2-3 lines of the daily pivots? or go line by line on the H1?
Thanks for your help
I started going line to line on tuesday, and moved on going from every line between PA and SR1 to SR1.

Re-funded my account with $130,- tuesday and am up 2269 pips since. Mainly due to JPY buy's, I put pending buy's on every weekly line and TP at the 2nd line from there. For example;
- R2 -> R1
- MR2 -> MR1
- R1 -> P
- MR1 -> MS1
- etc.

This way I am always in 2 trades, limiting my DD and doubling the amount of pips the pair travels north. With 2 trades [$0.01/ pip] a JPY-pair the DD will be managable.
Author:  Lydia [ Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Gertje wrote:
Pipstubborn wrote:Gertje, Congratulations. Can you ilustrate me? Do you TP at 2-3 lines of the daily pivots? or go line by line on the H1?
Thanks for your help
I started going line to line on tuesday, and moved on going from every line between PA and SR1 to SR1.

Re-funded my account with $130,- tuesday and am up 2269 pips since. Mainly due to JPY buy's, I put pending buy's on every weekly line and TP at the 2nd line from there. For example;
- R2 -> R1
- MR2 -> MR1
- R1 -> P
- MR1 -> MS1
- etc.

This way I am always in 2 trades, limiting my DD and doubling the amount of pips the pair travels north. With 2 trades [$0.01/ pip] a JPY-pair the DD will be managable.
Hi Gertje,

Are you using 10.4 templates or 10.5 ? Can you share the chart please if you don't mind.
Thank you
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