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Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=3682		 Page 37 of 40
Author:  Radar [ Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:43 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
Hey Ronkeous,
ronkeous » Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:36 pm wrote:Here is an interesting stat that you might want to consider.

Leverage 400:1
0.01 Lots = $0.10 or 10 cents per Pip
30 Pip Zone and 90 Pip Take Profit

Total Margin and Drawdown @ 21 Zone Trades before it exit everything at Break Even is about $6600.00
Just something to consider when assessing potential risk.

I know that most people will argue that their strategy will not encounter this (especially if they are playing breakouts) however I don’t have such a good strategy so I just need to be aware of that and ensure that I am well funded for the hard times.

Happy Trading
Ron
Once ALR kicks in, the original strategy has nothing to do with the subsequent trades, so it is quite possible to hit 21, 41, or 4000 Zone trades before it hits breakeven (unless, of course, you set a sensible limit to the number of zone trades). Once the ALR sequence has closed, then the original strategy comes back into play.

Have fun!

Radar =8^)
Author:  Radar [ Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:01 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
Hey Jack1,
Jack1 » Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:33 am wrote:To avoid death run, few way can be used,
1. Strong trend pair is needed. Then, price move fast, not stucked for too long.
2. That recovery zone need to be increased to 100 or 150 pips for eur-usd, over daily ATR, not hit next pending order.

Try to test? I download the EA, which seem not work ?
Re 1: If we could find a strong trend, and enter in the right direction, we wouldn't need ALR.

Re 2: ALR is based around a Risk:Reward ratio of 1:3, so an ALR Zone of 100 to 150 Pips would require a TP of 300 to 450 Pips - good luck with that if you're playing on the lower timeframes. If you don't increase your TP, you'd want to have a damn good Win:Loss ratio.

Have fun!

Radar =8^)
Author:  TambaTrader [ Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
I said I would add the extra results I have got from my SAS analysis of ALR.

I thought it better to put the spreadsheet in the same place where I posted the first one:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 93#p105193

I was trying to see how often ALR would fail after x amount of turns. I was interested in if using smaller amount of pips would make it need more turns. Although you can't draw any firm conclusions, because I have only used one year of data, I think the results give me some comfort that you can use ALR on smaller amounts of Pips (e.g. 10 to 30)

The reason I care about this is that I have a couple of strategies that are intraday and the ALR EA I was using, messes it up as it means I can't trade on that currency pair for however many days. So I wanted to see if I could reduce the amount of days that a trade would be in ALR mode.

I am not going to use that EA any more though (Wealthmaster's) as I think there is a high execution risk with the trades not having stop losses. You are too dependent on the EA always working.

I hope someone finds the results useful. For me it was good to have done it, as the code will probably be part of some more advanced code to ultimately make a proper backtester.

Shona
Author:  TambaTrader [ Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
Radar » Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:55 am wrote:Hey Shona

Check out SpiderX's http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =81&t=3792

That system doesn't hedge, just closes out, and calculates the next lot-size, then enters in the opposite direction.

A few months ago, I had written a basket trader that incorporated ALR, using GlobalVariables to store all info needed in case of a restart/reboot, but I didn't like the death-runs, (and they always come eventually), so I threw it away :( Shame about that, 'cos a few days ago, I realized that if I just used ALR to recalculate the lot-size, then waited for a normal entry signal, I'd avoid the death-runs, (well, as long as my system had a good win/loss ratio in the first place).

As for whether ALR is a martingale, well, yeah, it is... It's just that we're increasing our risk by much smaller increments than with the standard martingale.

Have fun!

Radar =8^)
Thanks Radar, that is the EA I am going to try next :D
Will let you know how I get on in the thread for it.
Author:  martypatty [ Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:34 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
Hi everyone, I was looking for some settings for my EA when i came across the blog. I went through the entire thread and noticed that the biggest problem was the settings. I figured the settings out but I haven't found an equation to find the settings. Which is why I'm here.

I'm going to put my EA here in hopes that it will get the minds thinking.... My EA will make a small profit every time it closes a sequence. I have the EA settings programed out to 13 rounds.... 13 SELLS 13 BUYS. These setting are for a 3.5 to 4.0 range. That means if the NoTradeZone is set to 50 pips (500 for my code), the ClosingPoint must be at least 200 (2000). Anything less than a 1to 4 ratio means it will lose money. The code always starts out with SELL. With the settings set at .01 SELL and .02 BUY, it always makes money on the first sequence no matter which closes first.

I have settings from 2.0-2.5 to 5.5-6.0. the higher settings I have out to 20 rounds... 20 of each.

Anyway have fun watching the EA. Any questions.. just ask and I will do my best to answer. Marty
Author:  Bruster400 [ Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first

Postby TheInsider » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:08 pm
" I will release my ALR EA soon, just need to polish it a bit first, and to write a manual for it."
@ TheInsider - It's been a while now so I may be too late to the party but did you ever release the EA that you were working on?

Can anyone else help me in finding where the latest thinking is about this trade recovery system - I've read through the last 10 pages or so and it looks like enthusiasm has been declining due to issues with the EA rather than the idea itself so I'm keen to find out if there is a more robust way of implementing it.

Thanks
Author:  ronemshoff [ Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
In my own trading I look at the order boards to see where the big money is placing their orders

Dewey , where did you get this order board list??? cant find. thnx ron
Author:  Dewey McG [ Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:06 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
ronemshoff » Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:39 pm wrote:In my own trading I look at the order boards to see where the big money is placing their orders

Dewey , where did you get this order board list??? cant find. thnx ron
It used to be published at orderflowtrading.com
Author:  ronemshoff [ Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:42 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR) - read this first
Dewey McG » Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:06 am wrote:
ronemshoff » Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:39 pm wrote:In my own trading I look at the order boards to see where the big money is placing their orders

Dewey , where did you get this order board list??? cant find. thnx ron
It used to be published at orderflowtrading.com
thnx Dewey, do you have anything to say about their course, trading room, etc???
Ron
Author:  ronemshoff [ Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Automatic Loss Recovery System (ALR)
Dewey McG » Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:03 am wrote:One of the decisions each trade has to make is the trade off when they add extra turns. As you add more turns, the chances become greater that you will never have a loss, but the size of the loss becomes larger. You can keep it down, but your lot sizes go down so your wins are smaller.

In testing these EA's on different pairs, it is good to look at the ATR to determine ideal settings. A more volatile pair might be fine using 50/150. A pair like the EURCHF would be better with 35/105 etc.

Have fun testing everyone. I have a crazy schedule for the next few days so won't be able to do as much. Please share your findings.

Special thanks to Spider and Madpipa for their hard work.
Dewey, have you tested the best zone (SL) using ATR?? i am thinking to come up with some kind of logical zone rule might be to take 50% of the last 30 or 90 day ATR. ie: if 90 day ATR is say 200, then your zone or stop loss setting would be 100 pips and your take profit 300 pips. Some volatile pairs have huge ATR, therefore maybe 33% ATR or 25% ATR would be better. Comments please. thnx.

Having said that i think i am more comfortable with smaller zones, such as 20 or 25 pips, with TP three times zone. setting the zone is a tough decision as ALR might kick in just when price turns in your favor and you end the trade at break even instead of profit. Maybe that is safe vs risk trade off.
Comments please.
thnx Ron
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