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10.4 A Complete System
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1481		 Page 369 of 745
Author:  peranders [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 8:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:Little bit of topic but have you ever seen this?
This is the largest spike I have ever seen (USDZAR) on any pair.
Swap on that pair makes short carry trade a nice run, except when spikes of 13000+ pips occur, it looks the same on 4 hour chart. I didn't have history for lower timeframe.
Would howerver be nice to have caught the spike on top, and enter a short carry trade that would run and run and run.
Author:  peranders [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:Hi everyone, what do you think about fundamentals from Japan?The consensus indicated is bad for the currency so the JPY should weaken?Well at least one of them is indicating.Just thinking to leave the trades open over night and these announcements would affect them.
My thougths are, that we have had scare tactics that monday when most of us took a hit, the JPY crosses haven't been moving much from then to now. It looks to me knowing the G20 slap wasn't much of a slap and that Japan dosn't have much alternatives that it is ready for another attack at higher resistance levels. Basically it looks primed for it.

And what happened that monday was so the big boys could make profit on JPY longs while others stopped out (I have kept mine just closed GBPJPY which I normally don't trade for a total DD of 10%), now I think the big boys want to make some profit on JPY shorts.

But it is just my feeling, I'm just a noob began with this last september.
I just follow this thread and learn from Bob and other traders, also like to spot pinbars, inside bars and other PA tells.

The most important lesson I've learned (the hard way, when I lost half and thanka to Bobs system and JPY info ended up +20%) is that I only trade the pairs I know, and for now that is AUDUSD and AUDJPY, on AUDUSD I know the historic S/R levels by heart.
Author:  zentauro67 [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
@peranders

Hi, i´m a bit surprised with AUD & JPY high correlation these days. In fact, AUDJPY is almost flat, ranging in a very narrow box, while other JPY pairs move up and down.
Author:  tommiho [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Chris wrote:
tommiho wrote:Little bit of topic but have you ever seen this?
who is your broker, that is horrible. I have nothing like that on my chart.
The broker fixed everything. Returned money and reinstated positions very quickly. They said that was a bad feed from one of they liquidity providers.
Author:  VirtualFM [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote: You dont have an economic reason for the CHF to be behaving like it is. There isnt a fundamental news story to go with the move.
(Maybe this helps)
There may be a reason why CHF went nuts. Yesterday they announced that they are limiting immigration from Western Europe, and next month they will be limiting it from every EU country, becoming an "island" among dozens of countries where people can circulate freely without Visas and paperwork.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22285886

Since many EU countries nowadays have incredibly high unemployment rates (Spain reached a record of 27%) they were being overflowed with people looking for a job and decided to stop the flow, invoking some obscure not-yet-used clause of the law (which seems to be only valid until 2014, so this will be in effect for only one year, but enough to shake the markets, it seems).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ap ... e-eurozone

Anyway... I had trades on CHF... so between CHF, the fake-news-spike of JPY, and the sudden strength of NZD, I'm completely out of Forex for now. Basically... if I trade a 0.01 Lot right now, I will be investing around 30% of my account!
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Chris wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Here is how the gbp/chf trade would have looked with a first test of CSS slope for 10.4. This is the replacement for AO once it is set up. When you start seeing the angles of the lines change or the gaps get smaller you get out and close. Just a sneak preview.
Bob that is a crazy looking chart. I like it, nice work!
it still has some bugs in it that need to be worked out, for example some charts red will mean sell and others it means buy. Have to get the color thing worked out so they are the same fore every chart.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
VirtualFM wrote:
nanningbob wrote: You dont have an economic reason for the CHF to be behaving like it is. There isnt a fundamental news story to go with the move.
(Maybe this helps)
There may be a reason why CHF went nuts. Yesterday they announced that they are limiting immigration from Western Europe, and next month they will be limiting it from every EU country, becoming an "island" among dozens of countries where people can circulate freely without Visas and paperwork.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22285886

Since many EU countries nowadays have incredibly high unemployment rates (Spain reached a record of 27%) they were being overflowed with people looking for a job and decided to stop the flow, invoking some obscure not-yet-used clause of the law (which seems to be only valid until 2014, so this will be in effect for only one year, but enough to shake the markets, it seems).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ap ... e-eurozone

Anyway... I had trades on CHF... so between CHF, the fake-news-spike of JPY, and the sudden strength of NZD, I'm completely out of Forex for now. Basically... if I trade a 0.01 Lot right now, I will be investing around 30% of my account!
its been a rough week. will be loser for me also but with me being sick I didnt do that much trading anyway.
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:Hi everyone, what do you think about fundamentals from Japan? The consensus indicated is bad for the currency so the JPY should weaken? Well at least one of them is indicating. Just thinking to leave the trades open over night and these announcements would affect them.
Tommiho, the market usually "builds in" the consensus long before the announcements occur.

The biggest moves come when the news doesn't follow expectations, and positions have to be unwound. Expect to see evidence of weakening long before the actual news release.

Having said that, news spikes still occur, which gives opportunity to flood money into the coffers of brokers. Pending (conditional) orders get hit in both directions at times, which gets traders in and out of positions at a loss ... both long and short.

At news times you need quite large stops ... or to be right out of the market ... or develop the expertise to manage the price action. This is the toy we are playing with. Some traders only trade the news ... and only once a month. The owner of the FPA (Felix Homogratus aka Dmitri Chavkerov) used news trading to make his money, if the story is correct.

As for me - I am sticking to the grind ... for now ... and that is 10.4 V 5.0
Author:  rebyte2 [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Any gold bugs in to Fib retracements?

Could be known as an A, B, C, setup???
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Quick illustration of news activity ... and longer term trend.

The AUD needs to strengthen more yet to counter the good news for Kiwi this morning (Australian time).
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