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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  intcust [ Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I have been reading the 10.4. four hour 240 is suppose to be same as 2 ma on monthly. Right now the eur usd the price is below the 2 ma and above on the 240 on the four hour on my charts. Am I wrong. The play yesterday was the cable I had it the wrong way took a beating but had I followed bob I think it would have been good
Author:  Ingot54 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
rebyte2 wrote:Any gold bugs in to Fib retracements?

Could be known as an A, B, C, setup???
That chart is quite compelling, Rebyte.

Can we divorce our beliefs about Gold from the charts?

If this was the GBPUSD I would say it's a good play to reverse from the 1480 - 1482 level (61.8% Fibs)

But this is G-O-L-D ... is all the sentiment and paper trading having a destructive effect on the TA?

"Gold" is the movie I watch while waiting for other trades ... who'd have thought we'd see such public forgetfulness ... or Wall Street forgetfulness ... that has plunged Gold to current prices.

Have the Fundamantals changed so much?

I think not ... but then the market is never wrong!

Here's a tip - Gold gets bought when the XXXJPY rally (JPY weakness).

What are the chances of "bad news" (weakening of the YEN) today?
Author:  Ingot54 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
intcust wrote:I have been reading the 10.4. four hour 240 is suppose to be same as 2 ma on monthly. Right now the eur usd the price is below the 2 ma and above on the 240 on the four hour on my charts. Am I wrong. The play yesterday was the cable I had it the wrong way took a beating but had I followed bob I think it would have been good
That's an interesting observation, Intcust.

On my chart, the Monthly 2MA is below the closing price.
On my chart, the 4H 240 MA is also below the closing price.

But even if there is that difference, keep in mind that the monthly 2MA does not EXACTLY correlate to the 4H 240MA ... but it is so close the difference is negligible. In any case, not many of us are brave enough to trade around the 240 MA, because it is telling us that price is indecisive here ... and too risky to call.

You can use the 240 line as a SL or TP ... but for me, I couldn't trust it as a point of pending orders if it is flat. Perhaps if it is steeply trending ... but even then, if price is retracing so strongly, why won't it cross the 240 anyway? (Just an example - I am not saying this is the case on the EURUSD chart right now, though the 240 is flattish.)

In the screen shot below, closing price is above the MA in both time frames.
Author:  zentauro67 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 1:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Waiting for BOJ statement...
Screenshot - 26_04_2013 , 3_00_17.jpg
Author:  Ingot54 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 1:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Just a reflection ...

The improvement in the CPI in Japan released today ... from minus 0.4% to minus 0.3% could have come as a result of BOJ activity over the past 30 days. They must be taking encouragement from that.

It may be that the improvement is not enough ... or that it IS enough.

Will it mean a steady rally in the XXXJPY crosses ... or will we see "fits-and-starts" knee-jerk moves as a response to moves elsewhere in the market?

For example ... the "good" news for GBP last night (we are at GMT +10hrs) resulted in a serendipitous rally in the GBPJPY, but a flattening or a fall in the EURJPY. Both currency pairs had rallied throughout the previous week almost in unison, and in unison, also fell for the first 2 days of this week.

Now there is divergence between the EURJPY and the GBPJPY.

Q: Will there be some "catch up" with the EURJPY?
Q: Will the BOJ be happy with a trend over time?
Q: How do we "detect" any possible targets the BOJ is looking at, to measure their progress?

There might be some clues in the statements to be released today - and if anyone can find these releases and interpret them for us when they happen, I would be grateful.

Cheers - Ivan
Author:  Staedtler [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
i read somewhere in here about someone talking about Fibonacci retracement.. here's my settings for the fib, i have preset targets in it. usually when PA breaks the 0 or 100 , you will hit the targets. it's funny how it works, it's very consistent. you just draw your fib in the direction of the 10.4 trade, from ancor to ancor, just like you would any fib lines. just thought i would post it for whoever was talking about fib retracements earlier. sorry for getting off 10.4 topic ! just giving my 2 cents
Author:  Ingot54 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
It might take the markets a little time to digest this news, but the first reaction was to BUY the YEN ... just a little nibble as I write:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... 0C20130426

EDIT: I am long NZDJPY
Author:  Staedtler [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
we are going to have some HUGE moves today right when that rate comes out
Author:  nanningbob [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
intcust wrote:I have been reading the 10.4. four hour 240 is suppose to be same as 2 ma on monthly. Right now the eur usd the price is below the 2 ma and above on the 240 on the four hour on my charts. Am I wrong. The play yesterday was the cable I had it the wrong way took a beating but had I followed bob I think it would have been good
The 2 MA is based on the monthly and moves once a month. The 240 is also based on the last 2 Months but moves every 4 hours. It is much more dynamic than the monthly 2MA. 240 is based on the last 60 days and updates every 4 hours. 2MA monthly can get behind by 30 days and is out of date after a couple of days into the month. So you have a 2 MA that can be 29 days old in its read.
Author:  Ingot54 [ Fri Apr 26, 2013 6:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Ingot54 wrote:It might take the markets a little time to digest this news, but the first reaction was to BUY the YEN ... just a little nibble as I write:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... 0C20130426

EDIT: I am long NZDJPY
Further links to help interpret XXXJPY today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-2 ... -goal.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100676179

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-2 ... ellas.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22299450

The consensus seems to be that BOJ has a tough row to hoe. Generally the markets are loving it ... but the Japanese people remain unconvinced, and continue to hoard their cash. People are putting off purchases because they believe they can buy more cheaply tomorrow ... but if they can get price deflation to reverse, then this will turn around, and Japan should be off to the Inflation Races.

For it all to come true, employers need to allow wages to rise, which will feed through to prices. But most employers do not have budgetary plans for any rises in wages ... more cuts are planned at the moment.

I am long the NZDJPY because of the great news for Kiwi this morning local time ... a 75% better trade balance than forecast, and the potential for the YEN to weaken at any moment.

Go Kiwi! Nice Pin Bar forming on NZDJPY at this moment.
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