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| Recovery system with a different twist https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=193 |
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| Author: | Iamshakey [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 1:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Perhaps a system like this might be a waste of time for many. It would be nice if one never had to bother with it. I use it for the psycholigical aspect, since this has always been my weakness. Even reasonable losses on account balance have always been daunting to me. This way, I keep focused on the profit of each pair rather than what the account balance is doing. Kind of gives me a little faith. This has worked very well for me. Not quite sure what you mean by "bundle". The way I use this for manual trading, each pair and each trade is traded individually. I keep track on a spreadsheet of all the pairs I trade. Each trading session I sit down for, I print out the spreadsheet to remind me of which pairs are in the system, and for what step in the system is done next. I often have some pairs that aren't in the sytem very often. Another pair may get a lot of signals in any given week, and my go through the system in a few days with only a few trades on it. Another pair might not have a signal for a long time, and it my be weeks before enough signals go through to finish that pair. I also try to let profits run for max pips. But I keep stops pretty hard. The only time I close all open trades is when the floating profit is too good to be true, and I close before I can fcuk it up. Does'nt happen to me very often. This is really a matter of record keeping. I am currently trading the marauder system over on activeboard, and have expanded my spreadsheet to about 20 or so pairs. This may prove too daunting and I might have to pare it down. As for with an EA, I envision a simple linear approach with the EA attached to individual pairs via magic # , and the recovery being used as needed with each pair. The EA should only concern itself with recovering the individual pair to which it is attached. I suggest TRYING IT manually with your favorite system. Pick a pair, trade it for pennies, and keep track with pencil a paper. You may find it is a pretty stress free addition to your system. Then again, you may find it unnecessary. Yours, Shake |
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| Author: | esquire [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 4:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Hi shake, Thanks for your explanation. First off all, i was only responding to the lot-sizing part. Your system of writing things down might work perfect for you, so I'm not criticizing that in any way (nor am i critisizing lot sizing if you are using it for psycholigical aspects, everyone is different there). What i am critisizing is the mathamatical aspect of this lot size thingy (just as margingale systems etc), or making 'bundles of trades'. By this I mean that you select a bunch of trades which has completly nothing to do with eachother, and then multipling your lotsize depending on what happened on previous trades (which are completely independent). Let's take 3 situations: 1. you trade everything with 1 lot, 2. you trade every lot with above system and therby average on 3 lots a trade 3. you trade with 3 lots. System 2 will outperform system 1 with 300%, simply because the average lotzise is 3 times as big. But the risk of ruin becomes really really big (i simulated this). Instead using system 3 will give you the same results as system 2, only with a smaller risk of ruin. What you SHOULD do instead is analyzing your results and create an lot-size strategy around that. These 2 results for instance: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mag_ft/ ... lor/230713 http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ROBST3R ... ors/228271 Have increadibly low Z-scores, which means loses are highly likely to followed by another loss (same goes for winners). A good strategy would be to trade with 0.5 lots after a loss and 2 lots after a win (for example). Hope that clearifies Cheers, Simion |
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| Author: | MiTija [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 7:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Hi Simion, I believe from a scientific / mathematical point of view, that your analysis is 100% correct. Well Done! From an emotional / behavioral point a view, I believe that these types of recovery systems are beloved by traders because it gives them a good feeling to be doing something when the market is moving in a negative way. It has been my experience, that it can be very difficult for some traders, to sit back and relax during a series of losses. Even though we all know, that sometimes a series of losses is going to happen. For me, I try to limit my celebrations of wins to about 5 minutes and my worries over losses to about 1 minute. This works for me. Your mileage may vary. In the end, I believe that it is up to each trader to chose system 1, 2 or 3 according to both their financial and emotional predilections. Best Regards, MiTija |
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| Author: | Iamshakey [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
All points well taken, and I get your gist, and even agree for the most part. I have been trading for 5 years, and actually moderately successful. BUT, it's the 1 minute worry part that has always kept me from being MORE SUCCESSFUL. I don't become stressed really, but just too DETERMINED. There's been times I thought of using a fly crawling across the screen as an indicator!! Thanks MiTija and Simon, Shake |
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| Author: | Iamshakey [ Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Fun article. Thanks for posting, Khalid |
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| Author: | passgo [ Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Have read through this thread and it brings to mind a thread I read some years ago which often comes back to mind espcially after a couple of losing trades! The thread was started to test parrondo's paradox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parrondo%27s_paradox) which suggests a losing strategy that wins. Parrondo developed it from observing the saw tooth ratchet effect. Over the years, I have read of a number of people testing it in trading and the jury is still out. The guy who started the thread which I think has now disappeared in the mists of time seemed to find a way to use the paradox - however he never fully explained how he did that. I remember thinking at the time he had found a way to combine a sequence of trades with different probabilities and different R:R's to produce the ratchet effect of parrondo's paradox. I reproduce the extracts that I took from his thread to see if someone can see through to his solution. In that the "blackjack" recovery system is a sequence of trades, I felt maybe in this paradox lies an idea for adapting that sequence, so I hope this is not a curve ball. If it is, please ignore it but I am sure there is someone reading this thread who can see if the ratchet effect posited by parrondo's paradox could be used to strengthen the chances of recovery. I would really like to lie this idea to to bed one way or another! |
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| Author: | tex [ Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Hey Guys, hey Shakey, is there an EA for this already ? I think this kind of recovery system would be a good thing for an EA. |
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| Author: | garyfritz [ Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Tex's post drew my attention to this old discussion... Does anyone know how to calculate this Z-score "streakiness" measure? All the references I can find for Z-score say it's a measure of how far an observation is above/below the mean. I can invent a calculation that measures streakiness. If I look at an equity curve and calculate the P/L after each trade, then if sign(ThisTradePL) = sign(LastTradePL), return 1, else return 0. If the system has a strong tendency to have streaks of wins or losses, the average of all those values should be close to 1. If it never streaks, so a win is followed by a loss followed by a win etc, the average should be close to 0. You could use either of those results to modify your position size for the next trade: if it's close to 1, then use big size after a win & small size after a loss, and vice versa if it's close to 0. A value near 0.50 means it's pretty random so you can't benefit from sizing games. I don't know if that calculation is as statistically valid as the Z-score myfxbook uses. Seems like it ought to be. |
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| Author: | gaheitman [ Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
There's a bit on it here: http://articles.mql4.com/471 George |
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| Author: | garyfritz [ Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Recovery system with a different twist |
Thanks, George. So it looks like they invented their own measure and gave it an already-well-established name. I'm not sure I'm interpreting their explanation right. I understand their R to be "the number of streaks of wins + number of streaks of losses." So for the series of blue +/- right after the Z-score formula, I think R is 7: 1 (9 wins), 2 (6 losses), 3 (1 win), 4 (3 losses), etc. But if I use that definition of R, I get a Z-score of -1.21 on my test system, indicating about a 75% chance of a win following a loss and vice versa. That seems unlikely, since my "streakiniess" calculation on the same series returns 0.52, nearly random. I think I prefer my measure. |
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