Prediction of turning points based on ZZ on fractal calc....

[Kruspe]

Kilian, I´ve got a question. Let´s assume we have a fractals (1,0,0,1,0) within ZZ leg (it should be up leg, because the first fractal is 1, right ?). We want to compare it with ZZ legs from history. We would do this like with "next bar" prediction (4-13 seq).

1,0,0,1
0,0,1,0
1,0,0,1,0

Then we add next fractal (0 or 1) and we have (1,0,0,1,0,0) or (1,0,0,1,0,1) and we have these subsequences:

1,0,0,1
0,0,1,0
0,1,0,1
0,1,0,0
1,0,0,1,0
0,0,1,0,1

We compare it with statistical results and try to predict what possibility is more likely.

BUT

We also have to consider a ZZ length. GG and you said we should look at ZZ length +-3 bars. Let´s assume that our ZZ leg looks like this:

1,-1,-1,-1,0,-1,-1,-1,0,-1,1,-1,0

It is leg with 13 bars. Therefor we should compare this leg and fractals only with legs which contains this sequences (1,0,0,1),(0,0,1,0),(0,1,0,1),(0,1,0,0),(1,0,0,1,0),(0,0,1,0,1) and their length is 13+3 = 16 bars or 13-3 = 10 bars. So we search these sequences only in 10 - 16 length ZZ legs, right ? It is important in what sequence are all 13 bars in leg, or it doesn´t matter and we look only at ZZ length ? I mean this:

1,-1,-1,-1,0,-1,-1,-1,0,-1,1,-1,0 is the "same" as
1,-1,0,-1,-1,0,-1,-1,-1,1,-1,-1,0 ?

I guess it is not ..


We try to predict end point of ZZ leg. In up ZZ leg we wait on ZZ leg end prediction and concurrently opposite bar direction (in uptrend we wait on down bar prediction).

Am I right, or ? I hope it does make sense what I wrote.

Thx, K

[gg53]

Oh...oh...
It seems I have to follow 4 forums now... ;-}

G.

[Kruspe]

Heh, every forum desires to know the ultimate truth

[gg53]

Just a quick remark:
Pls note that many times when there is a "miss" in prediction it turns out to be a better trade than the actual fractal that it "missed".
That's one of the reasons I'm having a problem figuring out on how to update the model with real-time incoming data.

G.

[pedma]

Just a quick remark:
Pls note that many times when there is a "miss" in prediction it turns out to be a better trade than the actual fractal that it "missed".
That's one of the reasons I'm having a problem figuring out on how to update the model with real-time incoming data.

G.

Hi G & Killian,

About the SET1, is it just ALL the bars inside a ZZ leg ? Example: we have a ZZ leg built by this candles inside it [-1,-1,0,-1,-1,1,-1,-1,-1,0, -1,-1, 1, -1, -1 ] .
That's mean we have : 2 simple candles, 1 lower fractal, 2 simple candles, 1 upper fractal, 3 simple candles, 1 lower fractal, 2 simple candles, 1 upper fractal, and followed by 2 simple candles .

For for this ZZ leg, we have 15 candles (it's in 4-20 substring) , 4 fractals (it's in 4-13 fractals) as filter.
So, this 15 candles belongs to SET1 , and this 4 fractals belongs to SET2.
Is that right ?

[ssoftware]

GG

i'll follow you on all forums lol

[Kilian19]

Hey,
I was very busy this weekend and when I look at the thread at FF it seems like I have some logical mistakes. I don't think that it would be useful for me to continue posting until I actually gasped the algorithm. Otherwise I will just confuse you. .

Once I got it right I will come back ...

[hannele]

Oh...oh...
It seems I have to follow 4 forums now... ;-}

G.

Hi gg53,

what are the other forums ? Im watching this thread at FF and here, but can not find the two others you are talking about. Would you mind sharing please ?

cheers
hannele

[gg53]

Oh...oh...
It seems I have to follow 4 forums now... ;-}

G.

Hi gg53,

what are the other forums ? Im watching this thread at FF and here, but can not find the two others you are talking about. Would you mind sharing please ?

cheers
hannele

hannele,

I'm currently active on two ForexFactory forums - both of them are discussed here:
"gg53 Killing Zone" and "The Ultimate Truth".

G.

[SteveHopwood]

Please try to donate to some charity/organization helping the Philippines.

It really is a small thing to do and it can really make a difference.
In the current situation there - that small thing can mean the difference between life and death.

poocher send me this:
Deal News through this link will match any donation made:
http://www.redcross.org/cm/dealnews-pub

I'm working on receiving info on more credible organizations that are directly working in the Philippines right now.

I'll post more links as soon as I receive them.

Thanks you in advance.

G.

I agree. milanese brought your post to my attention. I have created a new sub-forum at the top of the Board Index, created a new thread in your name and moved your post to it.

Nice one, my friend.