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10.7
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=3549		 Page 43 of 95
Author:  zentauro67 [ Sat May 03, 2014 5:45 pm ]
Post subject:  10.7
I had forgotten this method based on CSS daily +- 20 lines. :good:

It´s an excellent way to see which pairs are trending well. GBPAUD looks in a very healthy bullish trend now and it could be the most promising pair (or even the only one) for a pure Edsel trade. 240 was crossed in momentum and every swing up is hold easily by the dynamic resistance zone generated by the 60. The only problem is the swap long that is crazy (-13.25 in my broker!). With such a swap I´m out. But these +- 20 lines are, in any case, pure gold to detect early trends.
Imagen 001.jpg
Author:  Wavegarrick [ Sat May 03, 2014 5:46 pm ]
Post subject:  10.7
dispell » Sat May 03, 2014 5:05 am wrote:
Eh?
You've been to Malaysia?
Or are you refering to China? Coz honestly i wouldn't go western here.
Plus, good spices are hellava hard to procure here. Its always pepper n five spice.
Haven't seen decent oregano or thyme anywhere. :/
Gotta love it when you guys talk like this, here in South Africa we live for the outdoors and a big fat rump steak is the usual thing on a barbeque, In fact here we call it a "braai" . It has become a refined process and competitions are regular with new recipes being brought in all the time. I must say that I get tired of meat after after a while. But not long before I want more :)
Author:  Nidolap [ Sat May 03, 2014 11:02 pm ]
Post subject:  10.7
Completely off topic but just to say that I appreciate very much all the variaty of nationalities here in the forum.

We connect all the continents and several points of those continents on just a few posts, really nice to see! :good:
Author:  milanese [ Sat May 03, 2014 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  10.7
Nidolap » Sat May 03, 2014 11:02 pm wrote:Completely off topic but just to say that I appreciate very much all the variaty of nationalities here in the forum.

We connect all the continents and several points of those continents on just a few posts, really nice to see! :good:
this can never be offtopic :good:

Cheers:)

Tommaso
Author:  Pipstubborn [ Sun May 04, 2014 12:44 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
Hi Zimezoom,
The second fastest pair for a TREND to the upside woulld be the GBP/USD. Why?..... because GBP line on the D1 CSS is outside the plus 20 line and the USD line is inside the minus 20 line but below the 0 line. Therefore giving us a mild and steady UT.

My 2 cents.
Author:  zimezoom [ Sun May 04, 2014 6:35 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 1:44 am wrote:Hi Zimezoom,
The second fastest pair for a TREND to the upside woulld be the GBP/USD. Why?..... because GBP line on the D1 CSS is outside the plus 20 line and the USD line is inside the minus 20 line but below the 0 line. Therefore giving us a mild and steady UT.

My 2 cents.
Thanks for your contribution Pipstubborn!

Now I understand the importance of the CSS 0.2 lines: both currencies inside the +-0.2 lines means range, one currency outside is a trend, and both currencies outside (on opposite sides) is a strong trend. Am I right?

Now I have only 2 questions left:
1. Let's assume one currency is under -0.2 and angling down, the other is above +0.2 and angling down too: one rule says it is a strong trend (both currencies are outside the 0.2 lines), the other rule says it is a range (parallel lines). What is the solution?
2. Assume both currencies are above the 0.2 line: same angle means ranging, opposite angle means trending?

I know all of this is the subject of the CSS thread, but still... :smile:
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun May 04, 2014 8:01 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 1:09 am wrote:Hi Zimezoom,
Or you can go look at the D1 CSS and see that all the currency lines are bunched together inside of the 20 lines. The only currencies that are outside of the 20 lines are GBP and AUD, therefore the only pair that is trending to the upside is the GBP/AUD. The strong currency is GBP cause is above the plus 20 line and AUD is weak because is below the minus 20 line.

You can also read it this way.... GBP is strong and trending up and AUD is weak trending down in opposite directions right now, therefore you need more AUD's to buy a GBP, the conclusion is buy GBP/AUD because is in an UT.

So the easy way to answer you question is when the lines representing the currencies are inside the 20 lines we are in a RANGE MODE, when outside the 20 lines we are in a TREND MODE and is right on the spot with no lagging and all at one glance. So the switch for RANGE to TREND mode and viceversa is right there at the 20 lines.

Please read the 10.7 CSS thread. Sorry for been redundant but to understand this concept is of upmost importance.

Hope it helps, Pipstubborn.
Good answer. :D
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun May 04, 2014 8:04 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
Nidolap » Sun May 04, 2014 7:02 am wrote:Completely off topic but just to say that I appreciate very much all the variaty of nationalities here in the forum.

We connect all the continents and several points of those continents on just a few posts, really nice to see! :good:
I agree. We get to make friends all over the world who have the same common goal. To become better traders and to succeed financially. Generous folks of every kind. Steve has made a wonderful forum for us to enjoy. :yahoo:

I also get to meet new traders all over the world when I travel and some free dinners. I now have an excuse to add South Africa to my list of places to visit. :)
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun May 04, 2014 8:21 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
zimezoom » Sun May 04, 2014 2:35 pm wrote:
Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 1:44 am wrote:Hi Zimezoom,
The second fastest pair for a TREND to the upside woulld be the GBP/USD. Why?..... because GBP line on the D1 CSS is outside the plus 20 line and the USD line is inside the minus 20 line but below the 0 line. Therefore giving us a mild and steady UT.

My 2 cents.
Thanks for your contribution Pipstubborn!

Now I understand the importance of the CSS 0.2 lines: both currencies inside the +-0.2 lines means range, one currency outside is a trend, and both currencies outside (on opposite sides) is a strong trend. Am I right?

Now I have only 2 questions left:
1. Let's assume one currency is under -0.2 and angling down, the other is above +0.2 and angling down too: one rule says it is a strong trend (both currencies are outside the 0.2 lines), the other rule says it is a range (parallel lines). What is the solution?
The rule is the higher one is the stronger pair. Angling down does not mean change of direction but slowing down of acceleration. Think of a car moving towards a stop sign it is still moving forward but slowing down. The other car is accelerating but into weakness. The parallel lines will give it a range feature but the advantage to the higher line. The moves up will be stronger than the moves down. Its bias will be up. Also remember that the line represents all the cross pairs of that currency as one line so each individual currency can act independently from the other. So the bias is to the strong currency but each individual chart is traded on its own merits. CSS only tells you where to go look to trade and which currency bias is stronger. The individual trades are made by following what is on the individual chart.
2. Assume both currencies are above the 0.2 line: same angle means ranging, opposite angle means trending?

If both are above the .20 line the higher currency line will usually have the stronger moves. (One car going up at 40 KPH will move faster than a car going 25 KPH and will create distance from the car traveling slower even though both are accelerating). Parallel up or down gives bias advantage to the higher line. Angling towards each other is becoming my favorite trade. When two cars pass each other they distance themselves very quickly and I find these trades can lead to some really nice moves as they go in opposite directions especially outside the .20 +/- lines. That is because two cars going 25 KPH with one accelerating to 30 KPH and one decelerating to 20 KPH will cause a move that quickly separates the two from each other.

I know all of this is the subject of the CSS thread, but still... :smile:
First thanks Pipstubborn for the very good answers to the questions.

Yes both outside strong trend. One out one in trend. Both inside range or not much movement. The angles of the lines show how strong price action is accelerating or decelerating.

Answers above
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun May 04, 2014 8:40 am ]
Post subject:  10.7
John Maudin writes concerning JPY:

Long-time readers know I am a huge bear on the relative value of the Japanese yen versus almost any currency, but especially the dollar. I have been saying for some time that I expect the yen to one day be at 200 and maybe even higher. But that journey is going to take a long time. Forty years ago the yen was at 357 (or thereabouts), and then it rose over time to the high ’70s last year, when it started to fall again. The chart below goes back 43 years. Think, by the way, how your businesses would react if the value of the currency in which you trade rose by a factor of four over 40 years.
ImageProxy.png
The largest pension funds are no longer net buyers of Japanese bonds (JGBs). They are now selling, and that tide will swell with a vengeance, since Japan is rapidly aging. Further, the largest pension funds are starting to roll out of JGBs and into equities. Which makes sense, as who wants to own a 10-year JGB at 0.6% if inflation rises to 2%? What rational investor would choose to do that? Japan cannot afford interest rates to rise all that much. So there must be a good market for JGBs. But who will buy?

Two weeks ago, there was a day and a half when the Bank of Japan was not in the market for 10-year JGBs. For that day and a half, the bond market had zero trades. Even though they are buying in size every month with their latest aggressive round of QE, there are times when they are not “in the market.” The Bank of Japan is now the market. Think about that!
(See: reuters.com/japan-jgb.)

Given the reality of Japanese finance, I think they BoJ will continue to “hit the bid” in order to hold interest rates down. They will space out their buying more to keep those no-trading days out of public view. They will give us a song and dance from time to time to try and keep the valuation of the yen from rising too fast, but in the end they are going to monetize more in absolute terms than the US did in an economy three times Japan’s size. Perhaps as much as $8 trillion over an extended period. That’s the relative equivalent of the US Fed buying $30 trillion and putting it on its balance sheet. If you thought the Fed was going to do that, what would you do now?

What do you think Japanese investors will do when they realize what is happening? Buy equities, of course, but also diversify internationally. This move is going to play havoc with cross-border capital flows into all sorts of markets.

This is a brief synopsis of the Japan story. For a much fuller read, I point you to some of my past letters, or better yet, the full story in chapters two and three of Code Red.
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