Other than main joy fundamentals, usd joy just had a nice sh, so it's really a nice time to go long now
Not to mention at least 3 different pattern signatures which is singing the same long tune (go figure the timeframe)
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| Author: | intcust [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
I understand what you are doing on the losers but that is a slippery slope. Best to just take the loss then look for a good entry and try again and or close and reverse. Example if your stop loss is say 40 pips and your total target is say 100 pips you enter say 1 lot then it goes against you . You lose 40 pips times 10 or $400.00 on a US standard lot. Now if it continues to go down you are out say 200 pips. Not only did you not take the trade the way you are 2000 out and trying to enter 2 lots hoping for a 75 pip retrace to get even. Now it moves against you again and you are 5000 out. When if you would have just close and reversed the trade you would be way more than the 400.00 ahead. Say on reverse you did 1 lot then when you were 30 pips up added another then at 40 pips added another. then at 60 added another you are well over the 400.00 in profit and forgot all about the loss. LOSING a trade is part of the game. EXCEPT it or you will never be a trader. That is my opinion trade as you want. Stacking is an art form that I do not do well. But it is best done in my opinion when the trade is neg. Then you are getting a better buy in and smaller s l. Once it goes back in green then add even more and wow what a winner. If you lose then you are out the sl on the first and a smaller stop loss on the second but still manageable. I like to have at least 4:1 risk to reward on trades like that. That way you only need to be right just over 25 percent of the time to make a small profit and the more correct the bigger the profit. Try it and see how much better you sleep without having to hope for a sudden change. Question are you wrong more than 25% now if so study the patterns more. If not then stack and set sl and watch acct. grow without keeping you awake at night. I don't care if it is demo acct. Trade it like real money or you will never be able to trade. incust |
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| Author: | blazej [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Hey intcust, I'm trading on small, but real account. I will take your advice into consideration. It's very valuable. I will check it (possibility of changing direction) when the market starts again. Regards, Błażej |
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| Author: | intcust [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
That is great you are trading live regardless of the size. That is real money you make or lose. Whole different feeling. Have faith on the close and reverse. So often we try to find the reversal point and fight the trend. I think that is because all the great post are the ones were we find the reversal point and take it and everyone is wowed. But the real wow are ones daggerfall has posted with the stacking and hitting it big The fox knows that so she plays on that and gets us to bite then boom it goes the way it has been. This happens over and over again. Yet we only post the trades against the trend so we miss the bulk of the move. Who wins on that of coarse she does. Just look at all the post here that say it should change direction. Here is the bottom. Here is the top. Most are wrong. DONOT look for a direction take what is shown. Look how much the eu has dropped. It should have retraced by now but it did not. Why the fox knows that we are looking for a retrace so she drops it down more. Then when everyone finally gives up and takes it short thinking the eu will continue to drop like a rock. The fox will retrace it 300 to 400 pips. The signs will be there. Look for a spike down a little razzle dazzle maybe another bump down just a little lower than the spike (sure sign it is going to continue it just broke support wrong). Then it will rocket up. Yes I don't need to map it. I know what I am looking for because it happens all the time. If you don't think so go to the 5 min or 1 min and look the 10-20 pip moves it is there just the move is smaller. So when it does ride it up with me. In the mean time take it down. Send a post when you see it setting up. If I see it I will just post the trade I am taking. It takes me way to long to do the charts mapping. Keep up the good work. incust |
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| Author: | blazej [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Thanks for help all. Regards, Blazej |
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| Author: | pips400 [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Hi incust, some really good advice you've been giving recently. IMHO successful trading sometimes isn't about catching the big win, but avoiding the big loss. I too was "wowed" by CJ's prowess when he began this thread and indeed I learnt a lot that I still use, but for me I came to realise that just because a chart may be naked, doesn't mean the trader trades blindly, in fact a trader like CJ didn't need anything else on his screen because after thousands of hours it was all in his head, so that his intuition wasn't guess work but delving deep into the database of his memory and trading accordingly. I take my hat of to Daggerfall and others who have managed to replicate CJ's success, but as they would all say it's not easy and takes a great deal of time to master during which many mistakes and losses are made. Remember the equation that there are two sides to every transaction. If price is still falling on the EURUSD the fox has been able to build a position of shorts before the fall in price because the fox never looses. And if the fox has been able to accumulate a net short position, it means that buyers have been entering the market. This would not be hard to imagine, because many people would be saying the same as you have pointed out that there must be a reversal and therefore traders entering long. This forms the perfect scenario for the fox who can allow price to fall further until price is exhausted. So I would concur that at some point price will retrace, however that may be short lived. As strange as it seems, as a general rule price will go in the opposite direction of the herd, that's because there's always two sides to the transaction and so if the herd are buying it's because the fox wants them to buy, and if the fox wants the herd to buy it's because it wants to sell. So the other general rule is that we always want to be on the side of the fox and not the side of the herd. |
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| Author: | tommiho [ Sat Sep 06, 2014 10:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Hi guys, long time no see. I was browsing through the tread once again and ran across daggerfall`s maps of currencies. It got me thinking and I found this. Daggerfall, congratulation on your results, well done !! |
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| Author: | rizla101 [ Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Yeah I am also taking interest in UJ at the moment. Mainly due to the nice 3 levels on the 4HR rather than any predictive mapping. Will be looking to short any spikes high. I'd be interested to see what those more acomplished at mapping think of your find. Good luck to you if you follow that path. |
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| Author: | kwanann [ Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
Other than main joy fundamentals, usd joy just had a nice sh, so it's really a nice time to go long now Not to mention at least 3 different pattern signatures which is singing the same long tune (go figure the timeframe) |
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| Author: | intcust [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
I agree with the long on the short run. But it should on go up to about the previous high then break down for a bigger trade. I am not sure about stop hunt. I just look at patterns and that is what I see. |
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| Author: | intcust [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff |
patterns repeat and this one more than any I have seen. The cable just opened with a gap. So it will cover the gap. When who knows but this week usually by Weds. or sooner. Usually it is moves even further away from the gap. Fox sucking in shorts then moves up and covers sometimes it is a true reversal sometimes just a way to rid the Fox of the shorts that came on board and hit them hard. I usually just play it a little below the Friday close and get out. I am in long. Then will short again after the gap is covered. Will try to stack if it moves down more. This is a big one almost 100 pips so could go 50 or 100 down more. Once it move up I will try to load up if can catch it. incust |
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