nanningbob » Sun May 04, 2014 2:40 am wrote:John Maudin writes concerning JPY:

Long-time readers know I am a huge bear on the relative value of the Japanese yen versus almost any currency, but especially the dollar. I have been saying for some time that I expect the yen to one day be at 200 and maybe even higher. But that journey is going to take a long time. Forty years ago the yen was at 357 (or thereabouts), and then it rose over time to the high ’70s last year, when it started to fall again. The chart below goes back 43 years. Think, by the way, how your businesses would react if the value of the currency in which you trade rose by a factor of four over 40 years.



The largest pension funds are no longer net buyers of Japanese bonds (JGBs). They are now selling, and that tide will swell with a vengeance, since Japan is rapidly aging. Further, the largest pension funds are starting to roll out of JGBs and into equities. Which makes sense, as who wants to own a 10-year JGB at 0.6% if inflation rises to 2%? What rational investor would choose to do that? Japan cannot afford interest rates to rise all that much. So there must be a good market for JGBs. But who will buy?

Two weeks ago, there was a day and a half when the Bank of Japan was not in the market for 10-year JGBs. For that day and a half, the bond market had zero trades. Even though they are buying in size every month with their latest aggressive round of QE, there are times when they are not “in the market.” The Bank of Japan is now the market. Think about that!
(See: reuters.com/japan-jgb.)

Given the reality of Japanese finance, I think they BoJ will continue to “hit the bid” in order to hold interest rates down. They will space out their buying more to keep those no-trading days out of public view. They will give us a song and dance from time to time to try and keep the valuation of the yen from rising too fast, but in the end they are going to monetize more in absolute terms than the US did in an economy three times Japan’s size. Perhaps as much as $8 trillion over an extended period. That’s the relative equivalent of the US Fed buying $30 trillion and putting it on its balance sheet. If you thought the Fed was going to do that, what would you do now?

What do you think Japanese investors will do when they realize what is happening? Buy equities, of course, but also diversify internationally. This move is going to play havoc with cross-border capital flows into all sorts of markets.

This is a brief synopsis of the Japan story. For a much fuller read, I point you to some of my past letters, or better yet, the full story in chapters two and three of Code Red.

Wavegarrick » Sun May 04, 2014 8:49 am wrote:Hi Bob

You are most welcome here in South Africa. By the way you will find value for your money here with our cheap Rand and there are many things you can do and I especially recommend a wild life safari. Anyhow sorry to be off topic again Guys Anyhow add that onto your bucket list.

Regards

Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 3:28 pm wrote:Hi Milanese,
I'm confuse with the personal settings I want for 10.7 & 10.9.

While looking at H4 or H1 I want to have alerts entries and exits when D1 Sto7 (blue line) reaches 10-30 and/or 70-90 and when W2 (red line) switch from 0 to 100 or 100 to 0.

Should I use only 10.9 for this purpose? and what the settings should be?

Thanks in advance

milanese » Sun May 04, 2014 3:32 pm wrote:

Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 3:28 pm wrote:Hi Milanese,
I'm confuse with the personal settings I want for 10.7 & 10.9.

While looking at H4 or H1 I want to have alerts entries and exits when D1 Sto7 (blue line) reaches 10-30 and/or 70-90 and when W2 (red line) switch from 0 to 100 or 100 to 0.

Should I use only 10.9 for this purpose? and what the settings should be?

Thanks in advance

I understand you right, you want that it show independed from the TF the D1 7.2.2 stoch?
I can make you such version..

Cheers

Tommaso

milanese » Sun May 04, 2014 9:47 am wrote:

milanese » Sun May 04, 2014 3:32 pm wrote:

Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 3:28 pm wrote:Hi Milanese,
I'm confuse with the personal settings I want for 10.7 & 10.9.

While looking at H4 or H1 I want to have alerts entries and exits when D1 Sto7 (blue line) reaches 10-30 and/or 70-90 and when W2 (red line) switch from 0 to 100 or 100 to 0.

Should I use only 10.9 for this purpose? and what the settings should be?

Thanks in advance

I understand you right, you want that it show independed from the TF the D1 7.2.2 stoch?
I can make you such version..

Cheers

Tommaso

Here you go, the attached version shows the 7.2.2 stoch (blueline) always D1, independed what TF you are actual using--

Cheers

Tommaso

Pipstubborn » Sun May 04, 2014 4:23 pm wrote:
That's correct. This new version will also show entry/exit alerts W2 (red line)? Do I still need to use 10.7 for my purpose? Do I need to modify the settings of this new version?

Thanks for your prompt response, I will test it right away.

Cheers, Pipstubborn

milanese » Sun May 04, 2014 4:46 pm wrote: Yes, it will use the W1 2.1.1 stoch in combination with the 7.2.2 D1 stoch for the alerts, you don't to change anything in the settings..

Cheers

Tommaso