The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

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dudest
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Post by dudest »

tommiho » Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:58 pm wrote:Guys what kind of money management are you using?
If you are more less sure that you have the next move direction fixed but you didn't manage to hit it in the right spot like in the pins, do you ease in the position in few trades? So the total trade size is staggered a bit? Just to spread the risk and drawdawn? Or just dump it all at one place?
thanks
Since beginning to grasp a few of the concepts CJ presented, my best win rate has been 67%.
On average it hovers around 55%.
But that doesn't worry me none coz at that same time my a/c is up x10, or x14

Two truths that helped set me free on the way along:
1. If you knew that the a/c you were trading would eventually be VERY successful, would you have any problem cutting losses?
2. The idea is to make money, not to be perfect

I make a good number of losses [ you guys see my charts, you know some don't work out as I thought ].
Some losses are valid ( like if I'd have gone long on EJ/CJ a day ago ), and some due to impatience / forcing a setup where it's not there.

But after killing quite a few live accounts in the past ( the boom and bust cycle ), #1 above sunk in and became functional. The acceptance of the fact that I'm not a mind reader, trades can and will go against me at times. That there's no shame losing $2000 today, and SAVING THE CAPITAL that can gain me 10 times that number the next week. So a loss cut off is acstually a GAIN --> the capital that remains is like a seed that will reproduce itself a 1000 times over in time.

This week, my mind was off with other worries, so I haven't traded, have just watched from sidelines [ another hard-learned lesson --> that this is a MIND GAME; if the mind is not fully there, it'll translate into losses ]. I think the only trade idea which would have worked out so far would have been the NZDUSD [ but I'd have made it pay for all the losses, and some profit on top ]

When I'm more of less sure that I have the next move direction fixed [ say I think price is going to go up ], I put on a market order or 2, and sometimes pending orders for better pricing. If price moves against me, I add more positions (full positions, not split positions) if I can get a better price.

For the particular type of trade idea, I define in my head at which point the trade idea is invalidated. If I was trading a BARF SHORT, then price goes past what I thought was the Higher High, then trade is invalidated, and I cut the losses. If on the other hand it starts moving my way with encouraging signs (e.g pins pointing down when I'm long), I will add full positions while my margin increases [ e.g the GBPNZD trade from about 11 days ago ]. I don't have a final lot-size in mind; just what my account balance can handle SO LONG AS PRICE IS PLAYING OUT LIKE I THOUGHT IT WOULD. At some point I stop, and just let price go.

When I don't get in at an optimal place, I don't stack as much, maybe just one or two positions. But if I feel the train has already left the station, I often let it go, purely to keep my mind and check and not be reckless.

I've realized that I'm not good with price predictions (actually, I suck at it), and sometimes BARF throws me off. But I've also realized I don't need all the knowledge to make money, just what I understand, and for me that's Ms,Ws, and Levels

Sorry for the long-winded post

Cheers
Last edited by dudest on Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:06 am, edited 4 times in total.
dudest
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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

Post by dudest »

Direwolf » Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:05 pm wrote:Aha finally got a correct analysis for a change lol... Combined with a bit of fundamental. I was expecting Gov Poloz to be dovish today following Canada's negative labour data and positioned myself to sell CAD before the event.

First I thought USD/CAD would push lower for better buy price. Early Asian today it made a reversal pattern for short. Was hoping price would reach either trend line.


However, it got stuck in a bear trap so I exit for +16 pips and go Long prior to Poloz's statement.


And as expected Poloz's statement pushed CAD right down.


I expect CAD to keep falling for a while so whenever this pair dips I'll go down to m15 and add more position if I see RRT formed :D
:!!: :!!: :good:
dudest
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Post by dudest »

dudest » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:02 pm wrote:
Finished reading the PDF....
I close my trades when I am satisfied with the profits or wish to cut loses and apply the funds to another trade. Too many people get hung up on maklng the perfect trade", looking for exact entry and exit. Those same people hardley ever find either. I look to make money on my trades. Each persons comfort zone on trades is as different as our looks. When I put a trade on, I expect to make money. When I end a trade, I end the trade and move to next. You have to develop your own zones, the ones that are comfortable for you.
John
seanyd
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Post by seanyd »

dudest » Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:44 pm wrote:
dudest » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:02 pm wrote:
Finished reading the PDF....
I close my trades when I am satisfied with the profits or wish to cut loses and apply the funds to another trade. Too many people get hung up on maklng the perfect trade", looking for exact entry and exit. Those same people hardley ever find either. I look to make money on my trades. Each persons comfort zone on trades is as different as our looks. When I put a trade on, I expect to make money. When I end a trade, I end the trade and move to next. You have to develop your own zones, the ones that are comfortable for you.
John

Yes I think i`m one of those looking for the perfect trade guys , was reading the barf PDF again as well
great reading some great info in their ,

This is what I was looking for on UJ , see if it pans out
Screenshot (530).png
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blazej
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Post by blazej »

Hi all,

like Dudest said, for me it's also a mind game. I expect something to happen and if it's happening I stack trades, if not I change my expectations. The whole idea is to be open minded, do not stick to bullish or bearish market but see how the story unfolds and adjust. I never had higher loss than twenty pips, I do not take trades that could not get in early or those that I am uncertain about. And even with more trades losing than winning I am still going forward.

Before going to sleep I have few sentences to consider:

"Those ladies with heavy tops or bottoms move bounce and slowly,
long legged ladies are very flirtious and wild,
those that have long shadows are normally tall and very volatile,
those that coil usually spring surprises,
those that spread themselves normally have no substance."

by FTI.

Think of it from the perspective of the mind game and Your expectations, You versus all other traders. These few sentences perfectly describe market participants, their actions and price patterns.

Hope that helps someone.

Greetings to all of You,

Błażej

P.S. I am starting new job from the begining of 2015, so will have more time for trading and that makes me happy:)
seanyd
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Post by seanyd »

This is a Pic perfect Barf on the 15 min

Screenshot (519).png
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All warfare is based on deception.
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intcust
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Post by intcust »

Driewrolf,

I saw your post about taking the wrong side. First write down you trades and if truly you are on the wrong side say over seventy percent of the time you need to just do what you are doing and then take the opposite trade. I know this sounds stupid but what is happening is you are seeing what the fox wants you too so just see it a react opposite of what the fox wants. If not seventy percent then you should be ok just start small and stack that will wipe out the losses and make small winning percentage big gains.

incust
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Direwolf
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Post by Direwolf »

Thanks for your tip Incust. I really need to do that. I remember trying to record my trades into Excel but found it difficult to re-read and make sense of all the tables. Better idea would be to put everything down in Word doc I suppose with pictures and everything. I understand pictures much better than numbers.

How do you guys see EUR/USD?
H1.
2014-12-12_0832.png
I think in Weekly it's clear that this pair is hitting very strong level of interest which holds since 2006. I think this pair is still fundamentally bullish and will wait for this rally up to go short. This level would be really close to fib 73.6 as well. Sounds like quite a distance, almost 500 pips.
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Direwolf
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Post by Direwolf »

Am I making the right call? GBP/NZD H4 looks like it broke below chanel and bounced down. Got a few positions in.
2014-12-12_1750.png
Last month when it bounced down like this it fell 800 pips. However I got chicken out seeing bear traps in M15. Was that a bad reason to exit?
2014-12-12_1751.png
usd/cad is doing well. Wonder if I should hold it over the weekend.
2014-12-12_1740.png
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“Forget the BS you've been told. You have been educated to lose your money. All of it.”

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pips400
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Post by pips400 »

Direwolf » Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:57 am wrote:Am I making the right call? GBP/NZD H4 looks like it broke below chanel and bounced down. Got a few positions in.


Last month when it bounced down like this it fell 800 pips. However I got chicken out seeing bear traps in M15. Was that a bad reason to exit?


usd/cad is doing well. Wonder if I should hold it over the weekend.
Hi Direwolf

Re the GBPNZD H4, if you zoom out a bit more, what do you see?
GBPNZDH4.png
Over time I'd definitely be expecting a retest of the previous low around the 1.96 level. We've had a break of OBV signifying new move down, however price I doubt will just conveniently trundle it's way down without some jiggling around. So look at the H1
GBPNZDH1.png
Here you can see where entering into the end part of the weekly/H1 cycle, but with two levels so far, so I'd expect another push down to around the fib 100 extension. If you look at the OBV on H1 we're already back above the OBV30 so not sign of continuation or conviction, instead the usual manipulation. After the reversal (W) in this H1 cycle, I'd expect price to head back up for an abc correction somewhere into that grey box (although it'll probably move from where it is right now), and then after all that another reversal (M) before heading south again towards the previous low on the 1.96.

All sounds like crystal ball stuff. It's good to have an expectation, but we trade what we see in real time.

Hope that helps

Pips400
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