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10.6 EDSEL
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Author:  trucomallica [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

Sure. I'm now trading all pairs but only because I'm on demo and it is hard to keep track of all charts. I put little notes and arrows acording to CSS to remind me of what is happening, like "CAD going strong". If you are trading a new system with real money is wise to go little by little to see if it matches your personality. Keep up the good work!!!!
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

ezy wrote:I have two questions mainly for Bob:

1. Let's say a classic 10.4 pending order triggered. Hours later it's floating in a loss. SL is at the 240MA. When should one manually close the trade and move on?

Egads if I could answer that question I would be the richest man on earth. 240 is my final line of defense. (usually) Not going to talk about why i let some trades go beyond that not even going to teach it. But the 240 is it. How many trades do I actually close at the 240 line as losses? Very few.

The questions to me is not hours, it can be days or even weeks or months. I am a long term trader when it comes to trend short term on taking profits. I am not afraid to hang on a trade if I think the trend is on my side. In my 10.4 booklet I taught about thinking long term. If you look at the chart below it is the nzd/jpy from June 2012 to April 2013 it was in an UT (blue area). 10 straight months. In other words if you only did buys you would never have taken a SL if you gave your trades enough room. This is a monthly chart. Then 4 months of DT and then 4 months of UT. In reality if you can get the direction right you take a SL when direction changes. That is what the big boys who trade in the millions of dollars do. It is why you often see in the COT reports the big boys are trading one way and the rest of the crowd is going the other way. More next post.


2. Should we move the SL to BE in any situations or let's just leave it where it was originally?

My view of trading is NEVER LET A WINNER TURN INTO A LOSER. That is why I take my profit in a session and move on. (I am not a fan of risk to reward ratio) In case you didnt notice Forex doesnt move in a nice steady line. It moves in spurts. Price will always 100% of the time retrace to some point. So once price spurts I take it and go on. One thing I never NEVER never NEVER do to myself is regret a profit. What I mean is "Man if I just had waited, I would have had 120 pips instead of 50" I NEVER NEVER think like that. I am happy I made a profit and move on. There are always trades, every single day. Some only go 10, some go 500, but the usual is 20-50 on a spurt so that is what I take. The question then becomes am I a trader who can let a trade ride (like the big boys) or am I an immediate reward guy who cant sit on a trade long like Nanningbob? That will answer your question.

Last Friday night/afternoon USA session, after the euro close all of a sudden 13 trades went into profit about 130 in the afternoon. None were bigger than 23 pips, smallest was five. Altogether they made up 201 pips total profit. Nice way to end my trading week. I closed everyone of them. I can bet you there may not have been any trader in the world who closed up with a 200+ pip profit during the USA afternoon session but I did. So I got 200 pips without waiting all week for a move to go 200 pips. My risk to reward ratio was crap but my risk was nil because I was just riding the long term trend. Price above/below 240 and 60 ETC. and all the trades had been taken either Thurs. or Friday.


Thank you :oops:
NZD/JPY below
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

Back to the nzd/jpy but now look at the daily chart. The 60 MA is the 240 on a 4H. Every single week there is a retracement for you to enter into the trend. The big strong spurt at the end is a strong signal the run is over.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

Here the 4H chart with the beginning of the nzd/jpy UT. Slow start mainly range trade but UT bias. Fundamental news at the time JPY economy stagnated, elections coming up, the winner is going to weaken the yen. Big boys are already starting to enter their jpy buys. Small pieces at a time. Believe me they dont have SL in place they know and follow whats going on but they use only parts of their arsenal.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

nzd/jpy starts picking up steam as Emperor K and company implement their economic program. The big boys keep adding to their positions. The rest of the world begins catching up. Finally everyone jumps onto the JPY band wagon. COT reports start showing big boys are placing sell trades while everyone else is on a buying frenzy. Big boys close out their buy trades in two stages and price crashes big time. Price then ranges and big boys start putting their buys in again in the late fall. At FF writers are talking about JPY strength, JPY buyers are biting but COT reports show increasing sells of jpy by the big boys. If you dont mind I will look to be buying the nzd/jpy in the future again.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

SteveHopwood wrote:
trucomallica wrote:Nice run, Steve. Maybe at the begining of January you can add more pairs.
I am gradually adding them. Sometimes from my CSS read, sometimes in response to one of Bob's fundamentals posts.

Time was I would come across a system, load it onto 32 charts, lose track of where I was and retreat in despair following a few losses. Or a lot of losses.

Here I have taken the opposite approach. I started with the majors and GJ. I have added a few pairs as the three weeks passed.

Sorry if I have told this story before - actually I know I have but it does not impact on the strength of the lesson.

When I first started trading/losing-money in the Forex markets I happened across a thread entitled. "20 pips a day" or some such, at FF. At the time I thought, "20 pips a day? Get a grip. Only a moron is satisfied with 20 pips a day."

Seven years and several blown accounts later, I can confirm that had I made 20 pips a day from the start, then this forum would not exist. I didn't so it does, and arguably best for all of us involved. :lol:

Point is, slow and steady has its advantages when learning to trade Forex.

:D
Steve, great advice my friend. I tend to forget that new or better yet new to the system traders may not be able to handle the information overload. Thank you.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

NZD 14 weeks of never touching the 240MA during the run. You dont have to take losses if you know what in the world is going on.
Author:  ezy [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

Thank you Bob for precious advices.

For me it seems you really get the big picture what's going on in the world at the big boys' and fundamental level. I guess there is no way to read that information from the charts alone.

Can you recommend any specific website that is good to read on a daily basis and keeps us up to date about what is going on in the world?
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

ezy wrote:Thank you Bob for precious advices.

For me it seems you really get the big picture what's going on in the world at the big boys' and fundamental level. I guess there is no way to read that information from the charts alone.

Can you recommend any specific website that is good to read on a daily basis and keeps us up to date about what is in the world going on?
I sign up John Maudin's newsletter. I read Forex Factory news but most of that is a joke. I read non-Forex economics and stay away from conspiracy theories. I dont mean to knock gold as an investment choice and at times it is a very good investment but the world does not run on gold economic theory. If your personal belief is gold makes a good currency that is one thing but it is lousy advice when it comes Forex trading and understanding modern economics.

What moves the markets long term.
1. Govt. policy just go to a monthly chart and watch what happens every time we elect a president. Same with other countries.
2. Banker heads especially Bernanke, Carney, Draghi, and Kuroko (sp??) They are from USA Britain, Europe, and Japan. When they open their mouths all sorts of crap can happen. I like calling them Benny Boy (also known as Helicopter Ben), Prince C, DragonHead, and Emperor K. However, their underlings statements are meaningless.
3. China is trying to play a role but until they free up their RMB and make it a world wide trade-able currency they are just banging pans in the distance. They finally passed Mexico are far a volume so almost all the news concerning China is just blowing in the wind for now. As the 2nd largest economy they should be playing a much bigger role than they are. Their economy does heavily influence the AUD. When China's economy goes up the AUD goes up and when their economy slows down the AUD goes down. Whereever the AUD goes the NZD is not far behind but NZD has decoupled the last couple of weeks from the AUD. Whether that stays permanent or not is yet to be seen.
4. Whenever interest rates change especially if they are 1/2 point or more. 1/4 point maybe 3 days to 3 weeks affect. The last EURO change didnt do a thing in fact it did the opposite of what they wanted. Euro went up instead of down.
5. Most news stories will break with the trend, that is why a currency is going up or down and so news will match currency direction. News stories also will break a currency out of its range. Most news stories mean nothing and all the news about them posted on Forex news sights are crap. Seldom is there a real good story to follow there. But it is fun reading as you see me post some of their stuff.
6. I like Maudin, he is almost always right on. I learned about JPY from him, euro crisis, USD is not collapsing but there is concern. QE1, QE2, QE3, and how it affects the market and why Super-inflation predictors (the gold crowd) have been wrong. Why gold went down instead of up up up up up like the gold crowd was screaming. Etc. etc. Ok I will lay off of them for now.
7. Read read read and begin to understand Macro economics versus micro economics. Micro will not make the market move long term but Macro economics is what makes the markets move long term. Learn and understand the difference. It is what the big boys trade off of.
I had a good debate with a guy about the eur/nzd. It went 150 pips in his direction and then it went 500 pips in my direction. We were both right to a point. Him for 2 days and me for 5 days. It was a fun discussion.
Author:  SteveHopwood [ Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL

nanningbob wrote: I sign up John Mauldin's newsletter.
I Googled it. Here is a link.http://www.mauldineconomics.com/subscribe It is free and the latest newsletters arrived in my inbox within seconds of me subscribing.

:D

Edit: actually, they are Welcome messages with a link to the latest newsletters, but same difference.
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