stevehopwoodforex.com • The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

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Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:57 am ]

Post subject:

Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

garyfritz wrote:
Jason wrote:When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15?
That's what I wondered too! By the time you see the RRtrax, the opportunity to enter "in the pins" is long gone. If you enter up "in the pins" of the first bar, it could just as easily keep moving in that direction and never FORM the RRtrax.

f451 wrote:Here's where it gets interesting - if you have buy or sell a LOT.... how exactly to do you that without pushing the price against your trades? This is where the foxes and the stop hunts come back in to the picture... you have to induce someone else to take the other side of your position, so you need to make it look like taking that other side is an attractive deal... say when price pushes down below an established support, or the low of the day - just long enough to induce enough traders to sell - where you as the fox with the big position to establish are busy buy, buy buying, in full knowledge that price is gonna be coming back up once those desperate retail sellers are exhausted.
I understand the idea behind this, but I never understood how you could do it. So you push the price down to induce people to sell -- well pushing the price down there TAKES a lot of selling. So you have to get pretty short in order to push the price to where you want to buy. Then I would expect buying would push it UP just as fast as the selling pushed it down, so at the end don't you end up buying back the shorts you used to push it down, you're about flat, and the price ends up back where you started?

Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame.

The thing about this is that when price is pushed to a point, enticing people in, they get stuck with the trade when price turns quickly and goes against them They will not close for a small loss and as price moves away, their loss increases. Same when it reaches the other end. What ends up happening is a group of trades in locked into a position. Price will not go above the longs nor go below the shorts. neither can get out without a loss. There will be a period of accumulation, where price stays in a small range, but not exceeding the previous high. This is the Asian session, when the high and low of the day are established. There will be a point where the spread between the high and low widens. A lot of people set these new H and L's as the Asian breakout. After this, the market maker will begin the stop hunt, price moves a lot more and quicker, by now, all the earlier buyers and sellers are out, most with losses. Price will move high and trigger buy stops, locking people into positions, quickly reverse to new lows, forcing the buyers hand to dump or enter DD and triggering sell stops....price will retreat again locking the new shorts in as price runs away from them.... price will not go above or below the points the stops were taken. This is the stop hunt. Price tends to form a wedge or triangle as it whips back and forth, each time, staying between the H and L's, but not breeching the. Longs and shorts are either stuck or out, while the institution accumulates it's position.

Take a look at the chart.

John

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Author:	Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:29 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Jason wrote:When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15? I've spent enough time in the charts that it's almost automatic for me. You can always drop down and check the lower time frames if it helps you. There are repetitive patterns in the lower time frames that occur when the tracks form. You will see the track pattern on all time frames. On a 4H chart, the first pin bar forms.... while watching the 2nd 4H candle, as soon as I see a pin, and I'm looking for a trade entry, I place the trade. Pins form fairly quickly since it's a reversal, price pull back from the extreme to stick the stops that were probably triggered there. A pin high, on top usually triggers buy stops and when price pulls back, those who hold those trades are stuck. When it pins low, or the bottom of a candle, its usually trigger sell stops and stick the shorts. Nobody can tell you when to do it. You have to spend time watching them form and practice trading it on a demo account. Once they form, price very seldom breaches them and you are in a high value R:R trade. When trading these on the D1 you have a lot of time to consider the trade. Here's a past example of an old live trade I posted on another site. The anchor trade is in the pins and the pyramid trades are below. The SL for the anchor trade was the top of the red box around the pins. The only way to learn is to practice. CJ

Author:	Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:37 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Jason wrote:Hi Captain. Do you have a different type of volume indicator? I've looked at a few volume indicators and none of them show a large increase in activity on the EURGBP like on the picture you posted. That's not an Empty4 platform. It FXCM Trading Station. You might be able to download it and setup a demo there. I can't say you will find a good one for Empty4 but you might try a Google search for "better volume Empty4 indicator" . Not sure if it would be any better though as the only thing the indicators show are tick volume on your brokers platform. John

Author:	sat79 [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:13 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Here is better volume attached. I know that CJ have balls of titan, or something more hard. I think I never could handle 50% DD in my trading. Maybe if really have so deep pockets that you can know for sure that there is no change to get broken... So CJ, do you play the fox hunting game with market orders and what is your secret to trust that is have to be THIS, what is going to be print of fox? It's unbeliavable how close you can get of price turning points. I really think that you living in "Matrix", your real name is Neo and now you have started to see agent Smith in those nice green pi(ps)csels. Then you ask/think that why people use to scann 30 charts to trade... Well, I'm in there... I scann about 25 charts in every 4 H (Very rarely go lower than 4H chart) of day, and I get 1-6 trades/month. I try to cherry pick my trades and usually they are working. So how you can find so many trades / 1 pair, if you hunting your fox in daily charts? Maybe you can unlock you treasure chest and tell us your secrets.

Author:	Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:26 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Jason wrote:When you see the railroad tracks, it has already happened. How do you enter near the top and risk only 15 pips? Is it by looking for railroad tracks on the m15? Here ya go Jason - this would be a counter trend scalp on the H4...entry right in the pins with SL set right on top of the high pin. You can see my entry and SL at the bottom set of pins. Live setup! CJ

Author:	garyfritz [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:12 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame. What about the places I circled in red? The pins formed there, and price didn't reverse. (OK on the first one it reversed a little for one candle, but it didn't reverse like your examples. Would you have entered there? Would you have tightened up stops and gotten out early when it didn't work like you expected?) Fox.gif It seems to me that you must already KNOW where you expect it to reverse. Then you use the pins as a confirmation that "yes, it's going to reverse NOW." The pins by themselves aren't a reliable indicator. So how do you know where to look for them?

Author:	f451 [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:15 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
garyfritz wrote: Captain Jack wrote:Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame. What about the places I circled in red? The pins formed there, and price didn't reverse. (OK on the first one it reversed a little for one candle, but it didn't reverse like your examples. Would you have entered there? Would you have tightened up stops and gotten out early when it didn't work like you expected?) Fox.gif It seems to me that you must already KNOW where you expect it to reverse. Then you use the pins as a confirmation that "yes, it's going to reverse NOW." The pins by themselves aren't a reliable indicator. So how do you know where to look for them? Gary, that was exactly the question I was going to ask. I've only ever managed to trade price action with tight stops when I could see a top or knew a range had formed. This is getting interesting already.

Author:	Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:20 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
sat79 wrote:Here is better volume attached. I know that CJ have balls of titan, or something more hard. I think I never could handle 50% DD in my trading. Maybe if really have so deep pockets that you can know for sure that there is no change to get broken... So CJ, do you play the fox hunting game with market orders and what is your secret to trust that is have to be THIS, what is going to be print of fox? It's unbeliavable how close you can get of price turning points. I really think that you living in "Matrix", your real name is Neo and now you have started to see agent Smith in those nice green pi(ps)csels. Then you ask/think that why people use to scann 30 charts to trade... Well, I'm in there... I scann about 25 charts in every 4 H (Very rarely go lower than 4H chart) of day, and I get 1-6 trades/month. I try to cherry pick my trades and usually they are working. So how you can find so many trades / 1 pair, if you hunting your fox in daily charts? Maybe you can unlock you treasure chest and tell us your secrets. Haha! I've been accused of having balls of various composition over the years as well as contacts with Neo. I deny both..... I have my own version of High Frequency Trading and take tons of orders. That's why I get a large rebate check each month. I've just started those linked accounts a few days ago and have been laying on trade after trade. Some have been mistakes, like entering a sell instead of a buy, but most are intended. Anytime you use and account with high leverage, like the 500:1, my DD numbers will rise for several reasons. One would be the shear number of open trades, that may number in the hundreds. I trade all pairs, metals, majors, minors and exotics. The biggest reason for the high number here is that I stuck myself with a ton of counter trend orders the other day and a car wreck took out our internet service for 10 hours. Since I use few if any stops, when service was restored, the trends had changed and a ton of stuff was going the wrong way. I could have hedged these trades but since my live accounts are in the US and hedging isn't permitted, I didn't use it as I may make a bad decision later in an account that I can't hedge. I've been trading my way out of it and it will all be good soon. I can handle draw down and it doesn't affect me emotionally. If you notice the account that is 50:1, the DD is inline with the leverage. I've got another 1:50 that's about the same. I enter trades with confidence that I will profit from that trade. I fully expect to win every trade I place. If I felt differently, I wouldn't place the trade. If you only scan the higher time frames, look for the "railroad track" pattern to form...it starts with one long candle and a pin on top or bottom. You have hours in the next candle to make a decision about the trade. Watch it happen. This is the first thing I look for when seeking turning points. It's all I need. The chest is open, it's hp to you to take the treasure my friend. CJ

Author:	Captain Jack [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:41 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
garyfritz wrote: Captain Jack wrote:Take a look at this chart Gary, this is how they form...it's a counter trend scalp on the H4 time frame. What about the places I circled in red? The pins formed there, and price didn't reverse. (OK on the first one it reversed a little for one candle, but it didn't reverse like your examples. Would you have entered there? Would you have tightened up stops and gotten out early when it didn't work like you expected?) Fox.gif It seems to me that you must already KNOW where you expect it to reverse. Then you use the pins as a confirmation that "yes, it's going to reverse NOW." The pins by themselves aren't a reliable indicator. So how do you know where to look for them? Good questions Gary. You have to remember in this situation, I "know" what the whole move, from one end to the other is. When I look for the pins, I look for major turning points. It's why I look at every chart on my brokers platform. They don't come along every 30 minutes. I look for something that will provide a nice move, say 100-200 pips or more. That's why at FXAW, I always looked for the signals with the highest pip values. I'm not really interested in scalping the smaller inter trend or counter trend moves, but will take the larger retraces on the major moves. Each of those areas you circled could provide a scalper a profit. Options if you take something like that is to move your SL to BE+2 as soon as you are in profit. Look at the D1 time frame...you will see some nice trades across the board on setups like those. You can drop to the 15M, 1H or any other time frame and see them as well if you like those periods. Where do you look for them? Look on one of your 10.4 templates. They are full of them. Most would put you into a 10.4 trade a full level or more before you would normally enter. By taking the smaller SL at the pin level, instead of the MA240, your entry lot would be much larger for the same risk. You made a picture perfect trade there, look at that trade again. The pins will form at the major turning points. Use whatever tool you want to help you locate them. I don't post this in Bob's thread as he teaches his method and I don't want to impose a different set of rules, to confuse people. I've done this enough, I just trust the pins. FXAW is filled with my charts showing the 1st trade in the pins. Even if you are a bit late, you can still take entry lower in the candle and still use the pin extremes for SL. Your risk remains the same, but your R:R value will be a bit lower. When you look at the 10.4 temp, remember the pins are designed to trip buy or sell stops. Check where they appear on the pivot levels we all use. Fire a demo account up and toss trades up when you see them...watch the magic! Oh, one more point on the red circles...the longer the 1st candle that pins, the better the chance of getting profit on the second if you are scalping. Not worth it on the shorter candles, unless it happens at major area of interest. John

Author:	sat79 [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:51 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote: sat79 wrote: Maybe you can unlock you treasure chest and tell us your secrets. The chest is open, it's hp to you to take the treasure my friend. CJ Do you use your volume analysis some how to recognize what can be becoming RRtracs??

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