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10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=861		 Page 6 of 34
Author:  fondofallthings [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
nanningbob wrote:Monday had a small eur/usd trade for 30+ pips. I wanted the same thing today if it had come back across the DP line. But it didnt so no trade today.
Thanks for the screenshot Bob. That really has cleared my vision. I see how you mean this to work. I hope to see quite a few more examples.

Just to help me more, can I please ask what the last 4 daily/weekly crosses would have meant to you on this chart?

I see the clear pattern when I state that to sell the daily must cross from a position above the weekly moving away from the monthly, and to buy the daily must cross from a position below the weekly moving away from the monthly. Would that seem a conservative position to take?

Thanks a lot for your great work :)
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
fondofallthings wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Monday had a small eur/usd trade for 30+ pips. I wanted the same thing today if it had come back across the DP line. But it didnt so no trade today.
Thanks for the screenshot Bob. That really has cleared my vision. I see how you mean this to work. I hope to see quite a few more examples.

Just to help me more, can I please ask what the last 4 daily/weekly crosses would have meant to you on this chart?

I see the clear pattern when I state that to sell the daily must cross from a position above the weekly moving away from the monthly, and to buy the daily must cross from a position below the weekly moving away from the monthly. Would that seem a conservative position to take?

Thanks a lot for your great work :)
OK as far as the system goes when between the two MP and WP you are in range territory, which means you may play the up and down bounce between the two. But that can be a crap shoot. It looks good in hindsight but never seems to work great in real life.

However, for me I have been selling the auds because with the slowdown on the Chinese economy I have been expecting the AUD to come down. Which means I am using a fundamental to be my base for trading and then catching the sells as they go past the DP. This is confirmed by the stair step movement in both the weekly and daily pivot lines. I have not made any definitive rules on trading during range times but if you know a base fundamental at play you can trade the pivot crosses with your fundamental belief. The problem is I got burnt earlier this summer because both the aud and nzd became safe haven currencies during the summer and shot up instead. So playing the fundamentals doesnt always work.

The bottom line is it is hard to play ranges like this but if you sold at the highest line and closed at the bottom line and reversed, you did well if you used fairly tight SL. You even did well if you waited on the DP to enter. But I do not plan on promoting those kind of trades. I guess I could say trade in the direction of the stairstep during range times but I havent traded that enough to say do it. Just a thought for now.

So my best answer is look for currencies that have better setups and only do these if everything else is ranging. Then you have a good chance of trading if the market is ranging across the board.
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
SteveHopwood wrote:Here is one I took a few minutes ago. SL at WP; TP at next support. Rubbish r:r.

:D
pic.gif
Well looks like it went back into a range unless you used your famous MPTM to get a BE trade. Never know, see if it goes back down again. Yucky rangy markets right now. 20-40 pips and done
Author:  idempotent [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
nanningbob wrote:
garyfritz wrote:I'm in Ft. Collins! I thought your wife was Chinese?
No she is a teacher and the principal of the school. I am the administrator. Interesting relationship as administrator I can fire the Principal and as Principal she can fire the teachers, me I teach also. We have been married 37 years and still kiss each other once in a while. My wife graduated from Poudre High School Class of 73.
Haha, Mutually Assured Destruction (well, not quite). In fact that sounds like a very healthy relationship. We have the power to royally stuff up the lives of those we love. Most of the time we manage to not do that.
Author:  idempotent [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
nanningbob wrote:
Fable wrote:Very impressive work, love the update !

I was just wondering, it's possible to make a indie with an alert when there is a close candle above/below the daily pivot (especially in H4) ?

Best regards,

Happy pips to all of you
I am sure something like that already exists just have to find it. I am not a fan of waiting for the next open or close of a candle to enter a trade on high end charts.
Perhaps this can help. It's an indicator that bings when price crosses it. The line can be angled (i.e. a trend line), and of a given length.

I didn't write it but I did a mod on it. The original is called BetterAlerts.mql4, and I got it from the comments in this thread: http://codebase.mql4.com/7225

The line needs to be called either "Support" or "Resistance". The indicator finds when price crosses this line and gives an alert. The original only bings once. Mine bings continuously because I want it to. You could drag this line onto the chart and put it on the DP line.
Author:  idempotent [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Can we place orders daily?
NB, with your talk about placing pending orders, do you think it would be viable (successful) to place orders just after the start of the daily candle (i.e. when the new DP is drawn), and leave them run?

For me, that's appealing, as I can set trades at NY close, which is 7am my time, before I go to work, and then let them run
Author:  thelearner [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
idempotent wrote:
I am sure something like that already exists just have to find it. I am not a fan of waiting for the next open or close of a candle to enter a trade on high end charts.
Perhaps this can help. It's an indicator that bings when price crosses it. The line can be angled (i.e. a trend line), and of a given length.

I didn't write it but I did a mod on it. The original is called BetterAlerts.mql4, and I got it from the comments in this thread: http://codebase.mql4.com/7225

The line needs to be called either "Support" or "Resistance". The indicator finds when price crosses this line and gives an alert. The original only bings once. Mine bings continuously because I want it to. You could drag this line onto the chart and put it on the DP line.[/quote]

I am just about to ask if anyone has this alert LOL...thanks mate!
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can we place orders daily?
idempotent wrote:NB, with your talk about placing pending orders, do you think it would be viable (successful) to place orders just after the start of the daily candle (i.e. when the new DP is drawn), and leave them run?

For me, that's appealing, as I can set trades at NY close, which is 7am my time, before I go to work, and then let them run
That is what pending orders are for. You are letting a computer enter a trade where you want it to be entered. This allows you to go on your way and just check in from time to time.
Author:  VirtualFM [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
nanningbob wrote:We have been married 37 years and still kiss each other once in a while.
Hey Bob! Your system is awesome, but this sentence is pure exquisite humour! I loved it!
Author:  garyfritz [ Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition
nanningbob wrote:We have been married 37 years and still kiss each other once in a while. My wife graduated from Poudre High School Class of 73.
Lucky man. Wish it had worked out that way for me.

Your wife graduated one year ahead of me, but I was in Iowa at the time. My sons are at Poudre now. You'll have to tell her Fort Collins has changed just a teensy bit since her high school days. :lol:

FWIW: I've been doing a bit of study to understand the 10.2a behavior a bit better. I wondered if the DP>WP>MP or DP<WP<MP condition was a strong enough signal by itself. I wrote up a small test system to go long or short when the pivots lined up, and go flat when they weren't. It's pretty close to a breakeven, meaning "pivots lined up" is not a great indicator of "good trend to jump on." There are just too many cases where the pivots line up just as the market reverses.

I tried combining it with slope in a simple-minded way and that didn't work either.

I also tried adding simple volatility-based TP and SL, and those helped slightly.

So: since people do seem to be making money with this beastie, that says to me the pivots aren't the magic. It's how you manage the trade once you're in it.
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