Zennor wrote:

kwanann wrote:

Zennor wrote:kwanann, regarding your analysis of the USDCHF.

If you go out to a daily chart you will see that the price and 240MA are smack on top of a strong support/resistance line. Could easily pin through this triggering all your trades and then reverse on you.

Just thought you should know. Not saying it will but it's another possibility to your theory, personally I would wait until the price closes well below this line before selling.

Hi zennor, yes I know that is a s/r zone, that's why I TP first. Now I have the buffer to let the trade sit out. Not that it was a support turned resistance, so why can't it turn into support again

For me I have full confidence it will go down. Maybe now today, maybe later in the USA session or after bernoke talks. If not, it's fine, I just lose 50% of my winnings tofay

Well I hope it goes your way my friend. The other concern that I have is that if you look at the 4H chart, notice how the price rose quickly to the WR1 line not once but twice, followed by a period of consolidation, this would be the fox loading up with buyers, but look at what happened. Me thinks there is a possibility the fox is doing it again, but this time at the WS1 line, fast drop down followed by a period of consolidation to load up all the sellers..

Only time will tell and I hope that you are correct because I have no money on this one....

mjws00 wrote:I still laugh when I look at this thing and how successful shotgunning it is. Have to keep asking myself, "WHY THINK? JUST FIRE." tens of thousands of hours invested building discretionary skill sets only to find them beaten by something I can summerise in a few lines. pfftttt

nanningbob wrote:

endikwong wrote:

f451 wrote:Another nuance of 10.4 is the use of the pivots...


A lot of old time traders use pivots, and as Bob has pointed out crosses of the DP or WP are generally considered the switch of bias from short to long or vice-versa. Basically they're using pivots to assess the health of the trend. If price is consistently above the pivot, trading in a range between r1 (or r2, r3) and the pivot and retraces are respecting the pivot, then it's still an uptrend. if price is consistently beneath the pivot, trading between s1 (or s2, s3) and the pivot and retraces are respecting it, then you're in a downtrend. When price breaks that pivot this is most likely the start of a transition to a range or the beginning of a reversal. It's another thing to notice on the 10.4 template and help you decide when you want to set your pendings.

When price is trapped between the pivot and the 240, it's time for conservative traders to pass. Aggressive traders might go counter trend (using RS12 and CSS or price action) after the break of the weekly pivot, but before the break of the 240, targeting the 240 instead of WS1 or WR1.

I've marked up Kwanann's chart to illustrate.

Some questions:
In this period, price still manages to cross WP and hits WR1. You mentioned that at WR1 it's a good point for counter trend shorts. How do you know this, since at that point price is between WP and WR1 and it's supposed to be in "long" trade.

I am sorry if this is not related to 10.x. Please feel free to delete my post here.

Thanks

When the market is ranging S/1 R/1 are great places to CT trade, you will notice when the market is ranging how much Captain Jack's group very confident of their trades. He has a great range trading system. They kind of disappear when the market trends because price will break those pins and continue. The experienced trader will recognize this and adjust, new ones will take some hits and wonder what happened. Being able to recognize trending markets, ranging markets and sudden changes is what makes you a good trader. It is done by seeing charts and movements year after year. You recognize that things are moving differently and you catch the change.

I got caught with my pants down on the JPY in April and took some hits. In May I made sure that didnt happen again so I stayed with the light weights chf/jpy and cad/jpy and they ended up being the biggest movers I ended up with 44 wins and 18 losers on the chf/jpy but ended with over 600 pips to the good. However this time they were my only JPY trades. Yesterday's move got me out of the chf/jpy with no loss but some nice profit.

I am now playing with the cad/jpy which has decided to do a quad bottom on me. I could close all the losing positions and be BE for the month but I dont want to since I know the bond sale is next week and I will get most if not all back. Either way cad/jpy will be off the books by the end of next week or the 10th of the month. Win or lose I wont play with it much longer than that.

I am curious as to why the CAD has gone so weak. It has had solid economic news and hasnt done anything bad. USA economy is picking up so that should drag the CAD with it. Heck with that I hate trying to understand fundamentals sometimes.

Gertje wrote:

kwanann wrote:One thing i really like about the 10.5 system, which helps to bring us closer to CJ type accuracy

CSS.PNG

Notice the CSS shows CHF gaining strength and USD losing strength in the past couple of days

I've also cross annotated the 10.5 USDCHF chart with some CJ PA comments

USDCHF.PNG

Notice the beauty of 10.5 together with CJ PA, the lines are the typical pit stop of the foxes only when they want it to be, and how they put pins right at the lines as well so sucker people in.

PA already foretold the weakening of USD and strengthening of CHF on 17 May, CSS only picked it up a while later. the 240 MA, well its always been the slowest of the lot to figure.

Now as bob mentioned, price typically goes to WR1 or WS1.

So if you were playing pure 10.5 rules, you would have only put in buys for USDCHF till now, and even then i believe some of you guys would still be thinking of putting in buys as per 10.5 rules (crossing of DP, crossing of WP is almost impossible at this point)

or you might be confused with the CSS and not play this pair (since H4 CSS is red, RSI is flatbottom)

For me, here is my map for USDCHF, i'm expecting it to go back to DP (but not doing longs, too high risk), but i will place pending sells at those levels in case it goes there. Trades above the 240 is considered CJ PA style where i'm expecting stop hunts to happen and trap more longs before bringing it down.

Below 240ma, would be NB style trades, since the lines dont exist there i'm just putting in at H4 level and midlevels, TP at each level, i'm guessing that it will goto WS2 (CJ's H4 L2), probably not today

USDCHF.PNG

My feeling is it will go north again.
Reading the H1 CSS on my info-page, USD is gaining at the moment, CHF is flat.
I'm not bothered to buy it though, it's exactly on the 240MA.

It better makes up its mind first.

Gertje wrote: Should have bought at DP and MDR1 to TP at DR1.....

gms wrote:

Baluda wrote:For Coders Only!

Here is a libary to get to all NB 10.5 CSS values you want. Include this internally or externally:

Please let me know what you come up with.

Paul

I wrote a small helper, which automatically closes open and/or pending trades when the CSS turns. In addition it alerts CSS crosses to my iPhone in order to help me setting up my pendings in time.

If you are interested, go to the "Useful thingies ..." thread: http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 484#p63484

Gary