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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  SteveHopwood [ Wed Jun 05, 2013 11:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
rosst wrote::twisted:
What I learned - stick to 10.4/5 rules and avoid CT trades!
Why I hate fundamentals and take mostly indicator trades. Cad has been going down, been expecting a retrace. Last night building permits, which means future jobs and growth, were up 10%. That was way higher than expected. In fact those numbers were astounding, the type of numbers news traders like to catch a couple hundred pips on. Cad should take a nice jump. Yeah right zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz or continued to go down. I did news trading my first 2 months of trading and it made no sense whatsoever. Once in a while I will take a jump in there when I think a story should move the market. Lets see gbp/cad went up to almost S3, jpy/cad went down to S2. OK so much for that. NEXT. Maybe these guys will get tired of my complaining.
Hehe. I sometimes feel like a lone wolf baying at the moon in this direction, when everybody else is baying at one directly over my shoulder.

Apart from the occasional hiccup, news events are non-events these days. Even NFP. Remember when the term 'NFP' sent shivers down our spines? I don't. It was a loooong time ago.I mean, I remember the sensation, just don't remember when it inspired fear. These days, all it does is send the markets to sleep in the lead up to its release. Does sod-all afterwards. Well, a bit of a spike perhaps, but not like those 400 pips in 30 seconds we used to see.

I do not even bother consulting FF's upcoming news page these days - and that is not merely because it is crap. It is because news events are mostly non events these days, and have been for a looooooonnnnnggggg time.

"NEVER trade two hours before a major news release, of 30 minutes after" scream the pundits. Why not? Nobody cares any more. Apart from the pundits and those daft enough to take any notice of them, that is?

So, do I trade in the run up to NFP, or releases of similar 'importance'? Don't be so bloody silly; of course not. Why would I trade when I know the markets are moribund because there is no liquidity? Mind, I do not often know that there is an 'important' news release pending, and so frequently do trade into the teeth of it. Doesn't make any difference so far as I can see.

A Central Bank decision to move its own currency is a different matter altogether. If caught on the wrong side of one of those and the only thing we can do is close our trades if we are in time, or see our stops hit if not. Just don't confuse this with a 'news event'; you can forget them.

:D
Author:  cmeade2 [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Remarkably it looks like the Aud and Nzd are going to continue the trend.
Author:  rosst [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
rosst wrote::twisted:
What I learned - stick to 10.4/5 rules and avoid CT trades!
Why I hate fundamentals and take mostly indicator trades. Cad has been going down, been expecting a retrace. Last night building permits, which means future jobs and growth, were up 10%. That was way higher than expected. In fact those numbers were astounding, the type of numbers news traders like to catch a couple hundred pips on. Cad should take a nice jump. Yeah right zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz or continued to go down. I did news trading my first 2 months of trading and it made no sense whatsoever. Once in a while I will take a jump in there when I think a story should move the market. Lets see gbp/cad went up to almost S3, jpy/cad went down to S2. OK so much for that. NEXT. Maybe these guys will get tired of my complaining.
Maybe they are listening to you and do what they do just to mess with you! :lol:
At their last meeting they said "hey Bob is onto our usual monthly JPY pattern - let's change it this month." :twisted:
Author:  kwanann [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
From a purely volume analysis the big boys have been offloading their sells and seems to be converting them all to buys.

On the MN chart however it seems the trend has been broken with a huge pin last month instead of a quite solid candle of the past months

Same like TraderDesk, i expect tonight or latest tomorrow night before something happens. If nothing happens, i might decide to clean out the slate for yen pairs for now
Author:  fx800 [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
kwanann wrote:From a purely volume analysis the big boys have been offloading their sells and seems to be converting them all to buys.

On the MN chart however it seems the trend has been broken with a huge pin last month instead of a quite solid candle of the past months

Same like TraderDesk, i expect tonight or latest tomorrow night before something happens. If nothing happens, i might decide to clean out the slate for yen pairs for now
Hi kwanann,

Are you saying the institutions buying yen or xxxjpy pairs ??

Where is Mr Abe, has he gone into hiding ?
Author:  kwanann [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Sorry i meant they converted their sell xxxJPY pairs to buy xxxJPY pairs
Author:  fx800 [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
kwanann wrote:Sorry i meant they converted their sell xxxJPY pairs to buy xxxJPY pairs

Thanks.

Not much retracement in xxxjpy so far.

The nikkei has dropped back below WS1, having broken above it earlier.
Author:  kwanann [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Might have been a bond buying session just now.

More of gut feel, but it seems they are quite done for now weakening the yen and want to strengthen it, or else those guys just wanna recover their positions.

Either way i'm feeling quite uncomfortable with my all my yen positions and have hedged them all, at least now i know my exact loss and can work out how to recoup them.
Author:  TraderDesk [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
kwanann wrote:Might have been a bond buying session just now.

More of gut feel, but it seems they are quite done for now weakening the yen and want to strengthen it, or else those guys just wanna recover their positions.

Either way i'm feeling quite uncomfortable with my all my yen positions and have hedged them all, at least now i know my exact loss and can work out how to recoup them.
Hedging open positions if not too expensive is a good thing to do in my opinion. JPY is confusing traders if you listen to the news coming from the wires. I don't like to listen to the news in these situations but I do listen to price action as that tells me more about the market than any other source.

JPY has not significantly strengthen yet. All it has done is halt the speed at which it was weakening and it looks as GBP wants to strengthen more than JPY even if JPY remains flat. The last time JPY tried to strengthen was end of Feb. beginning of March which failed and that lead to a nice bear move. This time around JPY strength increase has been even more shallow than the last for the moment.

Long-term GBP/JPY is bullish as long as price stays above 140.

Short-term meaning 4 hour I am still bullish but if PA starts to consistently stay below the 240ma I will reverse that bias. For trading with 10.4 the best signal would be PA to go above 240ma and when RSI goes to a low and price is still above 240ma that will be a big buy signal. Right now the market is ranging so 10.4 can send you conflicting signals.

Let's look at a scenerio if bearish bias stays with this pair. I would then start to sell with every sell signal that 10.4 gives me looking for an eventual target of 148 and/or 140 if the former breaks.

Patience will give me the answer to what my new positions will be bias towards bull/bear. :)
Author:  Jemook [ Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Look at your account go TD! Nice one :)
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