The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Piter80]

I think eurusd looks similar like eurchf a week ago.Before that big drop.

[dudest]

Hi all,

few price predictions based on patterns from the lower timefrades maturing on the higher ones. Let's see if they work out.

Blaze my friend!, you are so in there!

20150121_gbpusd_h1_blaze_kul.png

20150121_usdjpy_m30_blaze_kul.png

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[Piter80]

I think I got it We will see tomorow.
Eurusd sell limit 1.16380

[Direwolf]

OK first trade in a while. So busy these days.

NZD/USD. Following New Zealand's lowest CPI in 2 years I was looking to short this pair.
Looking at daily and h4 I thought 0.77 would be a nice area to short.

2015-01-21_1533.png

Price fell initially and I thought I would miss the ride.
However it cam back up and looks like was forming an RRT on m15.
I was doing something else, other wise I'd try to get in much sooner, much closer to 0.77.
So, well, my stop wasn't as small as I'd like. Lot size had to decrease.

2015-01-21_2203.png

2015-01-21_2217.png

It fell and missed TP at 0.76 only 1 pips so I closed it for a little less than 3R. Not too bad I suppose.

2015-01-21_2246.png

[intcust]

good call

[go4pips]

Hi CJ. Dudest and everyone in this great forum,

I am a silent member here trying to learn from all of you, keep reading and comparing the charts you all post here.

I decided -with some of your kind advise - that from here on would like to ask questions and may be one day I will post my chart.

My first Q. would be the lower and higher time frame patterns similarity and repeating formation.

-How do we analyze it, let say we look at the last three days 15M chart patterns on usd/cad today on Jan 21. and in the next three to four days we can expect to see a similar pattern on the 4H chart on the same pair what we saw on the 15M chart three days ago! or ..............

Thank you.
E.

[Direwolf]

Hi go4pips. I'm still learning too! Here's what I think.

To me it's the other way around. You want to look first at longer TF such as daily or H4, or even weekly, to get an idea where you are at - has it made 3 pushes, has it reached important levels where it may flip or reverse, has it shown sign of exhaustion, etc. Then, when price makes a move around a level of interest, you can dial down to lower TF to get more details to better read the fox trail.

Now to apply the "fox" idea to USD/CAD... easy to see in chart history but I'll need much more training to spot this on live chart

USD/CAD been moving up. You know that when the Fox want to buy, they need to lure seller and hit buyer's stoploss.

On the 15th, price fell. How would you decide if it's a stop hunt?

2015-01-22_1206.png

That's when you look for the track! Dial down to lower TF.
h4 doesn't tell you much. h1 it sort of look like a RRT, with 3 bars tho. m15 you can say it's a W I guess.

2015-01-22_1230.png

But the track became clear with abc roof top(bottom) pattern on m5! The tip of "C" is where you would want to enter your long position. The closer to the tip, the better. That will come with experience.

2015-01-22_1228.png

Hope I'm not leading you down the wrong path here

[MattK]

Go4 - I believe CJ just mentioned recently in the posts that patterns start on the lower time frames and repeat over longer time on the higher time frames. But I will let someone else confirm that and explain it better.

Also, I think most people follow Direwolfs idea of starting with higher time frames to get a better idea of levels. But everyone is different.

I use the 1hr and 15 min charts for looking for pushes and levels because I trade those charts. If you follow this forum you see many guys posting 4 hr charts and resulting patterns - they have there time frame preference. I am trying to use the larger time frames in the same manner that CJ etc use them and making slow progress.

One other thing - in Direwolfs example he shows the patterns in the different time frames. Don't forget a RR track on the 1hr will show as a W on the lower time frames - as in the USDCAD examples posted. You will get to the point where 'see' that just by looking at the higher time frame.

[dudest]

Hi CJ. Dudest and everyone in this great forum,

I am a silent member here trying to learn from all of you, keep reading and comparing the charts you all post here.

I decided -with some of your kind advise - that from here on would like to ask questions and may be one day I will post my chart.

My first Q. would be the lower and higher time frame patterns similarity and repeating formation.

-How do we analyze it, let say we look at the last three days 15M chart patterns on usd/cad today on Jan 21. and in the next three to four days we can expect to see a similar pattern on the 4H chart on the same pair what we saw on the 15M chart three days ago! or ..............

Thank you.
E.

Hi E,

CJ:
# The past predicts the future
# Pattern is first formed on lower time-frame (starting with tick chart) then 'matures' into the higher time-frames at different times
# The patterns are the same; it's not about pattern matching, it's about pattern recognition

Daggerfall:
# See an interesting pattern/move on higher TF, e.g H4, you know it's already happened on lower timeframes

Check out CJ's, Daggerfalls and Blazej's most recent posts in the last 10 pages, a lot of useful summary in there

Cheers

[Dagu]

BTW

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