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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

Armen wrote:Hello Bob, hello everybody,

There is something either I am doing wrong or ... may be I missed something.
However, loading CSS v1.0.7d and CSS v1.0.8 with default settings on the same chart I get different results for slope curves. Please see below pics. May be this issue was discussed in earlier pages but i could not find anything.
I would be most grateful to have an advise if I am doing something wrong.

As always, thanks for help
I explained the differences in the book page 1 post1
Author:  atharmian [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

Armen,

Thanks. Yes, they already were in my 5.19.13 file from Post #1, but I never thought to use them in place of CSS 1.0.7d. Will try 'em now.

Athar.

Armen wrote:
atharmian wrote:Armen,

I too have problems displaying CSS 1.0.7d, getting red/green only occasionally, and have goldenrod color mostly.
Can you be kind enough to attach the CSS v 1.0.8, since I have not seen this update. Maybe this update solves my problem !


Thanks,

Athar.
Hi Athar,

Here you are the two indies. Also, you can find them in 1st page of this thread.
Author:  VirtualFM [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

nanningbob wrote:Japan is selling JPY bonds that equals 1% of their YEN supply every month and they are now in their 3rd month of doing it. This is the biggest trading opportunity since the Euro collapse in 2011 and you are waiting for what?????????????

I DONT CARE WHAT ANY INDICATORS OR FOXES OR WHAT EVER YOUR FEAR IS I AM BUYING xxx.JPY PERIOD.
Yeah, I understand what you said and (most of) the macro-economic logic behind it, but because of that, last week JPY had that hint of "this is it, starting to weaken now!" and I was in... and then it went crazy getting stronger and I was out with almost 500€ less in my 500€ account.

So guess what is the fear me (and others) have.

There's a saying in here that goes like "Gato escaldado de água fria tem medo!" This directly translates as "Scalded cat fears cold water", which probably doesn't mean much sense, but means that if a cat gets burned with boiling water, it will fear even cold water. Or maybe "Once bitten, twice shy" has the same meaning.
Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

CSS shows two currencies that match each other on both charts cad and jpy for direction.

So prices are retracing or changing directions. As expected JPY is dropping and CAD gone up as a surprise. From last week the 4 on the bottom and are moving up with Cad the big mover and the 4 on top are angling down with JPY the big mover. Retracements are happening so look for setups.
Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

VirtualFM wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Japan is selling JPY bonds that equals 1% of their YEN supply every month and they are now in their 3rd month of doing it. This is the biggest trading opportunity since the Euro collapse in 2011 and you are waiting for what?????????????

I DONT CARE WHAT ANY INDICATORS OR FOXES OR WHAT EVER YOUR FEAR IS I AM BUYING xxx.JPY PERIOD.
Yeah, I understand what you said and (most of) the macro-economic logic behind it, but because of that, last week JPY had that hint of "this is it, starting to weaken now!" and I was in... and then it went crazy getting stronger and I was out with almost 500€ less in my 500€ account.

So guess what is the fear me (and others) have.

There's a saying in here that goes like "Gato escaldado de água fria tem medo!" This directly translates as "Scalded cat fears cold water", which probably doesn't mean much sense, but means that if a cat gets burned with boiling water, it will fear even cold water. Or maybe "Once bitten, twice shy" has the same meaning.
Then there is the second issue of trading learning to manage moves. MM is the key to surviving. A SYSTEM may help you win but learning to cover your butt when things go bad is the other. I jumped on those fake crosses of WP last week also but My lot size to account size prevented a wipe-out and i dropped enough losing trades to keep my DD under 20%. That is the other part of trading one has to learn also to be consistently profitable. You cant have one without the other.
Author:  Pedigree [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 12:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

nanningbob wrote: MM is the key to surviving. A SYSTEM may help you win but learning to cover your butt when things go bad is the other. I jumped on those fake crosses of WP last week also but My lot size to account size prevented a wipe-out and i dropped enough losing trades to keep my DD under 20%. That is the other part of trading one has to learn also to be consistently profitable. You cant have one without the other.
I love your method of simply watching your % DD and keeping it below some very definite level. How do you do this at a glance? You previously quoted some account stats that included specific currency-pair percentage effect on your balance over some period. You were able to say something like "the Swiss pairs were responsible for xx% of my losses in March" Is there some processor that derives these stats or do you have to reach for a calculator each time?
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 12:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

Pedigree wrote:
nanningbob wrote: MM is the key to surviving. A SYSTEM may help you win but learning to cover your butt when things go bad is the other. I jumped on those fake crosses of WP last week also but My lot size to account size prevented a wipe-out and i dropped enough losing trades to keep my DD under 20%. That is the other part of trading one has to learn also to be consistently profitable. You cant have one without the other.
I love your method of simply watching your % DD and keeping it below some very definite level. How do you do this at a glance? You previously quoted some account stats that included specific currency-pair percentage effect on your balance over some period. You were able to say something like "the Swiss pairs were responsible for xx% of my losses in March" Is there some processor that derives these stats or do you have to reach for a calculator each time?
If you have 2000 dollars in an account 10% is 200 dollars DD total all trades. 20% is 400 dollars DD total all trades. The only time I get to 20% DD now is if something really unexpected happens, like Dragon Mouth going Blah Blah Blah. Even though I knew JPY would come back I stuck to my rules took my losses and moved on. You do that no matter how confident you are because you never know if the big boys will take advantage of the situation and/or more unexpected news comes out. The whole key to Forex trading is keeping your money that you have and trying to add to it.

This helps me because I know I can earn more than 20% a month so if the whole set of trades sucks i will take the whole hit of 20% (done that twice in the last 3 years) but most of the time I will shave 3-7% because those are usually the trouble trades anyways. Now people who dont earn or cant earn better 20% in a month may want a lower threshhold like 10 or 15%.

The next thing you learn is home many lots or trades you are running. I get nervous if a certain amount of lots are being run. Since I enter a lot of trades, I will close trades to keep my number lots to account size within a range. So a big moves happens, trades are entering and I may have 2-4 trades going on 10-15 pairs. Well a sudden reversal would kill my account or cause damage anyways so I will constantly close profitable trades to keep the #of lots account size in a range also.

For example I hate 20% DD so I will close a bunch of trades for small losses to keep it from getting there and deal with the rest later. These things are all part of MM. If you trade lots of trades like I do this becomes very important. If you only trade a handful of lots then your MM plan will be different. Everything must be kept under control. Trade in a way that allows you to trade another day.
Author:  Ingot54 [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 12:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

VirtualFM wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Japan is selling JPY bonds that equals 1% of their YEN supply every month and they are now in their 3rd month of doing it. This is the biggest trading opportunity since the Euro collapse in 2011 and you are waiting for what?????????????

I DONT CARE WHAT ANY INDICATORS OR FOXES OR WHAT EVER YOUR FEAR IS I AM BUYING xxx.JPY PERIOD.
Yeah, I understand what you said and (most of) the macro-economic logic behind it, but because of that, last week JPY had that hint of "this is it, starting to weaken now!" and I was in... and then it went crazy getting stronger and I was out with almost 500€ less in my 500€ account.

So guess what is the fear me (and others) have.

There's a saying in here that goes like "Gato escaldado de água fria tem medo!" This directly translates as "Scalded cat fears cold water", which probably doesn't mean much sense, but means that if a cat gets burned with boiling water, it will fear even cold water. Or maybe "Once bitten, twice shy" has the same meaning.
Perfectly valid reaction, VirtualFM.

Yes, Bob, this IS indeed the third month of this circus. You'd think we'd be wise to it by now.

I am.

I am wise to the fact that the BOJ/Abe/Kuroda want to weaken the YEN.
Crikey - that part is elementary - the dogs are barking it.

But what aren't the dogs barking ... ??

1) For the YEN to weaken ... something else has to strengthen
2) Those "something else currencies" also want to weaken
3) As we have seen, those "other currencies" have not stood idly by and let the BOJ have their way.
4) There has been strong resistance to this BOJ policy ... the YEN has strengthened again.
5a) Why has the YEN strengthened again?
5b) Because the "other currencies" are fighting back, and selling their own currencies.
6) Will they let it happen again with BOJ new Yen bond money? We shall see.
7) Will the BOJ get away with it this month too? We shall see.
8) Are the "other currencies" ready for the BOJ this month? We shall see.

We are in a currency war zone. No one is going to be allowed to get out of line, despite newspaper reports of how accommodating the G20 has been to Japan. Behind the RED door is a financial war cabinet, drawing up the battle lines. There is no plan anywhere to allow the YEN to win.

The point of all this is NOT to mock the Fundamentals ... certainly not from me.
I have made a serious habit of reading all of these kinds of news letters for years - I am apprised of exactly what is going on in Bond markets and the debt markets, Inflation/Deflation/Stagflation/GDP/CPI. No surprises.

But as I mentioned in an earlier post, it is not possible to weaken one currency without strengthening another. The "anothers" of this world will not let any upstart BOJ get in their way of also weakening.

My view on all of this is to simply trade what you see.

Bob's 10.4/5 strategy is good. Bob's macro-economic approach is also good. Scalping is good. Position trading is good. Swing trading is good. Trading the 1H ... 4H ... daily is good.

Trader's have to ask themselves:

"What level am I at?"
"Where are my best skills"

Don't try to chase 2 rabbits. Bob has traded for years and been developing strategies for years.

We should be grateful he is showing us many ways to profit from what is going on in the Macro-economic/Fundamentals part of the market. How else would we know?

But I suggest that if you attempt to follow him, you'd better be able to match it with his skills.

Are you ready for that?
Author:  nicoacademia [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 2:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

"Trade in a way that allows you to trade another day."

this.
Author:  fx800 [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System

Ingot54 wrote:
VirtualFM wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Japan is selling JPY bonds that equals 1% of their YEN supply every month and they are now in their 3rd month of doing it. This is the biggest trading opportunity since the Euro collapse in 2011 and you are waiting for what?????????????

I DONT CARE WHAT ANY INDICATORS OR FOXES OR WHAT EVER YOUR FEAR IS I AM BUYING xxx.JPY PERIOD.
Yeah, I understand what you said and (most of) the macro-economic logic behind it, but because of that, last week JPY had that hint of "this is it, starting to weaken now!" and I was in... and then it went crazy getting stronger and I was out with almost 500€ less in my 500€ account.

So guess what is the fear me (and others) have.

There's a saying in here that goes like "Gato escaldado de água fria tem medo!" This directly translates as "Scalded cat fears cold water", which probably doesn't mean much sense, but means that if a cat gets burned with boiling water, it will fear even cold water. Or maybe "Once bitten, twice shy" has the same meaning.
Perfectly valid reaction, VirtualFM.

Yes, Bob, this IS indeed the third month of this circus. You'd think we'd be wise to it by now.

I am.

I am wise to the fact that the BOJ/Abe/Kuroda want to weaken the YEN.
Crikey - that part is elementary - the dogs are barking it.

But what aren't the dogs barking ... ??

1) For the YEN to weaken ... something else has to strengthen
2) Those "something else currencies" also want to weaken
3) As we have seen, those "other currencies" have not stood idly by and let the BOJ have their way.
4) There has been strong resistance to this BOJ policy ... the YEN has strengthened again.
5a) Why has the YEN strengthened again?
5b) Because the "other currencies" are fighting back, and selling their own currencies.
6) Will they let it happen again with BOJ new Yen bond money? We shall see.
7) Will the BOJ get away with it this month too? We shall see.
8) Are the "other currencies" ready for the BOJ this month? We shall see.

We are in a currency war zone. No one is going to be allowed to get out of line, despite newspaper reports of how accommodating the G20 has been to Japan. Behind the RED door is a financial war cabinet, drawing up the battle lines. There is no plan anywhere to allow the YEN to win.

The point of all this is NOT to mock the Fundamentals ... certainly not from me.
I have made a serious habit of reading all of these kinds of news letters for years - I am apprised of exactly what is going on in Bond markets and the debt markets, Inflation/Deflation/Stagflation/GDP/CPI. No surprises.

But as I mentioned in an earlier post, it is not possible to weaken one currency without strengthening another. The "anothers" of this world will not let any upstart BOJ get in their way of also weakening.

My view on all of this is to simply trade what you see.

Bob's 10.4/5 strategy is good. Bob's macro-economic approach is also good. Scalping is good. Position trading is good. Swing trading is good. Trading the 1H ... 4H ... daily is good.

Trader's have to ask themselves:

"What level am I at?"
"Where are my best skills"

Don't try to chase 2 rabbits. Bob has traded for years and been developing strategies for years.

We should be grateful he is showing us many ways to profit from what is going on in the Macro-economic/Fundamentals part of the market. How else would we know?

But I suggest that if you attempt to follow him, you'd better be able to match it with his skills.

Are you ready for that?
[quoteBut I suggest that if you attempt to follow him, you'd better be able to match it with his skills.][/quote]

Can't agree with you more, Ingot 54.

Everyone had been doing so well until the yen short debacle, not once but twice already.

Why not stick with what you did best. If it ain't broke, why fix it.

Forex is not a get rich quick business. It is not a sprint but a marathon. If you want to win, you have to make sure you can finish the race first.

Slow and steady wins the race.
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