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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  padnoter [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CAD/JPY - a good short setup or one to avoid?
mjws00 wrote:
padnoter wrote:Hi,
I'm still learning 10.4
What do you all think of cad/jpy today?
I've annotated on the pic what I'm thinking..
cadjpy.png
Cheers
Those setups right around the 240 are tricky and very prone to whipsaws, imho. It can just as easily spike long and get you in the wrong way when you are trading a pivot that is close. I know we are going to see lots of people jump on them, and some will get lucky.... some will discover the burn of a nice wide stop. ;)

The magic is your trendline, imho. Once it is respected, a signal to the downside becomes reasonably safe. However, if you are trading a rejection of your trendline then the 240 to me is only a quick heads up that you may be countertrend, or ranging.

Remember the 240 is very close to a 200, that has the whole world watching. Price can bounce around near them, if you get long and short on each spike you will remember it.

My two bits. I know we are seeing good days here. But if you take these rules and run a year or two worth of data manually in the strategy sim... you will quickly learn that just following along, taking every trade that is valid is a KILLER. Primary pain is experienced during major sweeping turns in the market, and frustrating during ranges, and around the 240... once she has a little gap and is moving it is far easier to get in on a safe retrace.

At the end of the day. Vanilla 10.4 is enter on a retrace back to the 240. Enter your orders at meaningful SR (pivots being the most basic.) Simple and Safe.

Mike

thanks mike for your input... i like it - vanilla - simple & safe
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
padnoter wrote: isn't it a bit late to enter orders after the RSI has moved away from flatline...?

If not, an easy param (rsiDT/rsiUT) change for you would be to widen the 90/10 range to 80/20 - so they stay red/green longer?

If we program them to change to yellow, on what condition would you change them back to white/black?
:) Perfect questions.

I think it is often late. My solution was kick down to the 1HR. It will often give you 2 or more signals. before it is necessary to get the pendings in. There is no problem placing pendings early if it keeps running away from your entries... The problem is when it tags you and then spikes against (peaker trade)... weekly pivots are known areas. Smart/Big money is stop hunting and looking to fake around them.

For the most part... If you just sit on your fricken hands for 4 or more candles... you are probably as close to as optimal as any simple signal.

That extra little bit of data and logic is why I didn't bother with the alerts yet. I thought someone might take some incentive and do the hack version. You get a heads up, but you may be a full day away from a great entry. Nice if you want to work or sleep.

If you have decent money management and plan for scaling in. You could just place them immediately. Ride it against. Place again... you will likely end up with a decent average cost.

Mike
Author:  Gertje [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Awesome, made over 10% today. Currently in GBPUSD short, curieus what I find after wake-up...... :D
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: gbp/cad ?
padnoter wrote:this looks good for entry now?
gbpcad.png
Textbook. I would be careful to size so you have the option to enter again at WR1. And not be the least bit surprised to see it test 1.56898 which is last weeks high. That makes a dead simple stop at the 240 problematic for me... So I'd be looking to see WR1 reject. If it goes through there they may take the stops around the 240 before they move it back down.

The other scenario is bulls can't get their crap together and your entry goes without being seriously tested. That is why I'd take the early entry, and plan for the second.

I know it isn't. Light went green. Pull trigger. The power is in using the framework, and learning the subtleties.

Mike

(Remember you/I'll be wrong. This ain't magic or clairvoyance, only probabilities.)
Author:  trueblueTEX [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
mjws00 wrote:Definately a good day for 10.4. This is the charting Demo. Accidently misclicked and closed USDJPY. So there is another 175pips on that. I don't have many 1000 pip days. Thankfully it is still good in the live acct. There were valid short vanilla Yen setups. I did take a few early in the countertrend thread all based on 10.4 framework.
Hey, my first post:

I found Steve's site about a week ago and 10.4 at the same time.

Wow!

My question is: what is the indi you have in this pic? It is similar but not the same as what is included on the 10.4 Info Page. At least not the same as the one I have :-)

I'm looking forward to this 10.4 ride! Today is my first day on demo and I am up for the day!!!

Thanks
TEX
Author:  padnoter [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: gbp/cad ?
mjws00 wrote:
padnoter wrote:this looks good for entry now?
gbpcad.png
Textbook. I would be careful to size so you have the option to enter again at WR1. And not be the least bit surprised to see it test 1.56898 which is last weeks high. That makes a dead simple stop at the 240 problematic for me... So I'd be looking to see WR1 reject. If it goes through there they may take the stops around the 240 before they move it back down.

The other scenario is bulls can't get their crap together and your entry goes without being seriously tested. That is why I'd take the early entry, and plan for the second.

I know it isn't. Light went green. Pull trigger. The power is in using the framework, and learning the subtleties.

Mike

(Remember you/I'll be wrong. This ain't magic or clairvoyance, only probabilities.)

thanks again mike.
one more question... in vanilla 10.4 i didn't think you were supposed to enter a 2nd trade when in drawdown - only add trades to winners, limiting losers to a single position.. or is that what you mean by "careful to size"? i.e. enter smaller, so you can enter a 2nd in drawdown as friday high test may happen..

subtleties.. there sure are... but you are helping me & hopefully others - discussing these charts - many thanks :)
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
1% is 1% whether you put it on all at once or in two chunks the risk is the same. In Bob's notes he mentions adding the second position (GBPUSD peaker example, he goes to 2% at that point). Essentially you are sized small enough that a second entry is no big deal. Personally I plan for it, as I have a tendency to be early on my entries. Scaling in and out is a very good tool for controlling risk.

The system is new to all of us. The exceptions and losers are where we'll learn the most. What is so cool about this is the simplicity. I can plow through 26 charts and miss almost nothing in minutes. Dashboard gets me down to 5-6 meaningful ones. For a discretionary trader that is genius. A plausible system that lets me get away from the screen and not miss trades with pendings... even better.

Truthfully I think we are over trading the crap out of this thing. But that has the huge benefit of volume and speeding up the learning curve. The B and C grade trades show where one must be careful.

Lovin' It. The more people adding to the conversation the better.
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
trueblueTEX wrote: Hey, my first post:

I found Steve's site about a week ago and 10.4 at the same time.

Wow!

My question is: what is the indi you have in this pic? It is similar but not the same as what is included on the 10.4 Info Page. At least not the same as the one I have :-)

I'm looking forward to this 10.4 ride! Today is my first day on demo and I am up for the day!!!

Thanks
TEX
It is Paul's version of the iExposure Indi, you can get the latest version here : http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 112#p16112
Author:  fx800 [ Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
allisonmagic wrote:hey guys i've been googling like crazy.. is there any where i can find more information about the slope indicator ? or is that even relevant anymore to 10.4 ?
Try here http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=45&t=629

in Baluda's indicators.
Author:  mjws00 [ Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
allisonmagic wrote:hey guys i've been googling like crazy.. is there any where i can find more information about the slope indicator ? or is that even relevant anymore to 10.4 ?
The slope indicator we are using is kind of a misnomer. It is the slope of "TMA TRUE" which is essentially a 20 period LWMA with ATR bands.

TMA seems to make the rounds every once and a while. I studied it and tested a lot when Al's thread was active. Lots of info here: Al's Extreme TMA on FF
Bob did his own research on it. CTS (thread here) applied it as well. It is a decent approximation of the change in currency strength. Applying RSI to it seems to be a very early signal without a bunch of false positives.

The numbers on the info chart, show relative strength. You are looking for High vs Low more than specific values. Essentially we are looking at a simple heatmap of the market. There is something to be said for +-0.4 indicating trending behaviour... that that is pretty subjective and dependant on timeframe.
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