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10.4/10.5 trades only
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Author:  TraderDesk [ Sat May 18, 2013 6:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Well like I was expecting, we had the late Friday evening(GMT+2) price action high but not at the 157.2 level I was waiting for instead it was around 156.7 level. I had close some positions for profit but left a few for Monday.

Analysing why PA did not go higher especially as USD/JPY 103 level broke in the evening it seems that as JPY progressively became weaker so did GBP which capped the rise in GBPJPY price action.

Still the original analysis was correct just at a weaker volatility range.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat May 18, 2013 11:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
TraderDesk wrote:Well like I was expecting, we had the late Friday evening(GMT+2) price action high but not at the 157.2 level I was waiting for instead it was around 156.7 level. I had close some positions for profit but left a few for Monday.

Analysing why PA did not go higher especially as USD/JPY 103 level broke in the evening it seems that as JPY progressively became weaker so did GBP which capped the rise in GBPJPY price action.

Still the original analysis was correct just at a weaker volatility range.
I appreciate it when you guys catch certain things going on with other pairs. There simply is too much info in the market for one person to catch it all so I appreciate yours and the others comments on the market and what you are expecting.
Author:  zentauro67 [ Sat May 18, 2013 5:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Getting ready for next week. Expecting some pushback from USD on monday. EUR, GBP and AUD should retrace before we could re-enter shorts.

This is EURUSD 1H. Price is swinging very harmoniously on the 62 EMA. Going north to bounce again down?
Screenshot - 18_05_2013 , 19_22_00.jpg
Author:  TraderDesk [ Sat May 18, 2013 9:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
nanningbob wrote:
TraderDesk wrote:Well like I was expecting, we had the late Friday evening(GMT+2) price action high but not at the 157.2 level I was waiting for instead it was around 156.7 level. I had close some positions for profit but left a few for Monday.

Analysing why PA did not go higher especially as USD/JPY 103 level broke in the evening it seems that as JPY progressively became weaker so did GBP which capped the rise in GBPJPY price action.

Still the original analysis was correct just at a weaker volatility range.
I appreciate it when you guys catch certain things going on with other pairs. There simply is too much info in the market for one person to catch it all so I appreciate yours and the others comments on the market and what you are expecting.
Good to know Bob. I wasn't sure if I was overstepping by posting my thoughts and analysis in your forum... :)

When I am looking at GBPJPY pair I keep in mind the volatility of the currency pair. Below I put together a graph to show you the average hourly and weekday of volatility in pips.

As you can see there are three areas where volatility increases - Tokyo(0,1), London(7,8,9) and New York(12,13,14).

Thursday has the greatest volatility, then Friday and last but not least Monday.

Knowing this I can start to putting probabilities on where to open and close my positions as well as placement of pendings...
5-19-2013 1-22-23 AM.jpg
Bob talks about taking profits 3-4 hours into his trading session whether it is Japan, Euro or USA. If you take the above currency pair you can see why it makes sense. Why not take your profit if volatility gets low after a fews hours into each session. Of course price action can keep going but in most cases there is a small/large retracement for each session which gets you into a good R/R once again.

Last week we had on a weekly basis volatility levels that were quite low compare to average of 20 weeks. The number per day was around 110 pips where normally as an average it should be 200.

This week I am looking for an above average level of volatility so I will be trading accordingly. :)
Author:  aserschan [ Sun May 19, 2013 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
eur/gbp is setting up for a trade.
what about using the 240MA for a short-entry?
Author:  zentauro67 [ Sun May 19, 2013 4:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
aserschan wrote:eur/gbp is setting up for a trade.
what about using the 240MA for a short-entry?
I should give some more space. I think WR1 (last week WR1) is more likely to a reversal line than 240 here.

0,84900 is the key level. If you look backwards you´ll see until 6 time price changed direction at 0,84900.

EURGBP seems a good choice. I expect USD weakening this week. Strong bullish retraces in EURUSD and GBPUSD and some drop in USDJPY. EURGBP could be a quiet place to wait until the retrace is over. I´m shorting it a 0,84895 by a sell limit order.

gbp.jpg
Author:  zentauro67 [ Sun May 19, 2013 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Maybe this is out of topic for 10.4 trades, so Bob, please delete this post if you think this is not the right place.

I said in last post I´m expecting USD weakening this week and JPY stronger (or, what is the same, a week more near to a retrace than to a continuation for the 10.4 system). This is just because of a strong confluence of harmonic patterns in so many pairs. It´ is not usual to see so many patterns pointing all in the same direction. I drop some pictures here just as a curiosity.

EURUSD. Bullish butterfly (75% of times it work)
eurusd.jpg

GBPUSD. Bullish Gartley
gbpusd.jpg
USDJPY. Bearish ABCD
usdjpy.jpg
EURJPY Bearish butterfly
eurjpy.jpg
Author:  Foreverforex [ Sun May 19, 2013 10:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Anyone else get huge spike down on CADJPY on the open? Mine went down to 99.09, took out a stop.
Author:  spillini [ Sun May 19, 2013 10:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Dam guys, I am still liking the GBP/CAD even though it is flirting with the 240. As you can see I am scaled in pretty good here. Let me explain please: I am a firm believer in Fibs and when I put it together with Bobs system, I get another insight into a pair. Check out where the price touched. It went to 61.8% level of the 4 hr move from 4/25 to 5/13. An 18 day move that is ripe for a short. Thus, My stop was left out until I could see this price break that fib level. It turns out that I may have been right. Hope this helps explain why I am staying in past the 240. You see, I consider the 240 as an area and not just a line.

PS, sometimes you just have to grow a set and go for it...LOL

2nd chart is a close up.

Jim
Author:  kwanann [ Mon May 20, 2013 12:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4/10.5 trades only
Foreverforex wrote:Anyone else get huge spike down on CADJPY on the open? Mine went down to 99.09, took out a stop.
haha it was across the board for most jpy and USD pairs. thats the reason why i dont really like to leave anything over the weekend. sometimes they screw you up in the worse possible ways
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