stevehopwoodforex.com • 10.4 A Complete System

Author:

nanningbob [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:56 pm ]

Post subject:

Re: 10.4 A Complete System

Pedigree wrote:
nanningbob wrote: I knew one of you Fox minions would show up. You clearly show your ignorance by not knowing that Carney spoke today and the market reacted.
It is very true that I have spent too long a time in ignorance. Maybe that is why I now choose to look at market issues with both eyes and mind wide open. But it is not true at all to say I did not know that Carney was going to speak. I live in the UK and have the BBC 24 station playing on my PC at regular intervals throughout the day.

The whole problem is you guys show up afterwards and would say the same thing, even if the market had gone the other way. In case you didnt notice Carney spoke market moved. If he had said the opposite would you have said the Fox didnt work today. NO you would have gone to a different time frame and said see the Fox predicted this. It is nice to have a system where no matter which way the market moves you can find a Time Frame that fits the system. Some GBP crosses showed the market going one way, some showed it going the other way. The Fox had nothing to do with anything. Carney says one thing the market goes up and if he says another the market goes down. Candle patterns, spikes, etc. do not predict what a person is going to say. Ignoring this truth is simply ignorance.
Every system has its strong and not so strong aspects and, try as I might, I find it difficult to see myself as a “minion” of any. I have tried to take what I consider the best aspects of all the ones I have been fortunate to come across, not least of which is yours Bob; and that includes not just 10.4 but its other great predecessors also. I don’t think it is wise to see one system as being opposed to another. At the worst, a system appears to have nothing to offer you and so you simply give it a wide berth.

This is not at all about what anyone won or lost and I want to believe that the purpose of this great forum is to facilitate a pooling together of great ideas for the evolution of such stuff as cannot issue from just one mind. This is the reason why it is better for us to see cooperation rather than competition.

I still fail to see what Carney had to do with today's events. If anyone can educate me on how this is so I would be really grateful to them. If you are going to fight a war, you must at least do yourself the favour of knowing who exactly the enemy is.

I dont mean to jump on your personally and it was never intended. I apologize if it came across as such but I knew someone would sooner or later say Fox this or Fox that, it just happened to be you. I open my trading career up good or bad to show traders you can make mistakes or get hit by a bad move, take a loss and move on. I am really tired of the trading gurus who only talk about their good trades, like they never have a bad one. I got hit yesterday, everyone knows it, it is not so much that the system has flaws but that is the market. The Fox system as taught here at SH Forum is a great system. I recommend it on page 1 post 1 of my thread. I dont have time to to watch charts and trade 15M 30M 1H etc. charts and look for patterns. You have the time great but dont come here and tell me the Fox predicted such and such a move. The Fox does not predict what someone has to say. The greatest frustration with Forex now with me is all my big losses in the last two months have come off of DragonHead, King K, and now Prince C going blah blah blah. I dont have time to try to listen in and try to interpret whether or not what they say will make the market go up or down. My first Forex trainer was a news trader. Not my cup of tea but I know the basics of news trading.

What causes spikes, Fox story is a good story, but everything is computerized and banks have things controlled by a computer program. Hundreds or even thousands of trades can come in all of a sudden at news time. There is no human who can control what is going on but a computer can handle it in nano seconds. So a news story hits and lets say 100 trades come in at once. 25 are buys 75 are sells. A computer can bundle all the buys and run them first. Price spikes, at a certain price, determine by some program based on the volume or where a lot of stops hang out and at some point it will run the sells when the buys run out. Price will stop on a dime at some point as the buys run out and then the sells are put into place. Now who do you think gets first spot on the list. Of course the bank and its customers get first shot. Then the brokers scramble to try to get their positions in. They get blamed for the massacre but they dont have anything to do with it. (not that they never practice price manipulation themselves, LOL) The only protection they have is to widen the spread until the banks start taking their trades and then they can get back to business again. Now price reverses and heads big time in the sell position. What I am confirming is the Fox story is basically true and part of the program of every banks computer. Run all sells first and then the buys or run all buys first and then the sells. If the volume is high the bigger the jumps or spikes. Can you trade that, yes you can if you know what to look for. Does Captain Jack do a good job teaching that? Yes he does. But does that show what a person is going to say? NO. It does not predict what a person is going to say. That is what is going to make Forex trading even more difficult.

Central bankers are now controlling the price of a currency, how the economy is going to be run, whether jobs are going to be created or lost, stock market moves (what ever happened to a company makes a profit the stock goes up and if a company makes a loss it goes down) The stock market went down today because Central Banker said blah blah and QE is now longer going to be run or the stock market went up today because Central banker said blah blah blah and QE will be continued so more jobs and business will be conducted. So much power, affecting so many people, in the hands of the very few. That my friends is a very scary thought. We maybe kissing our freedom and democracy good bye with the power to control the economy to such a few small group of people who we did not elect or get to choose to be our leaders. Imagine if Benny Boy ever says the wrong thing, how many billions of people on earth will be affected and not just us traders.

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Author:	kundanketki [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:24 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Price above 240 MA, RSI Flattening up. Placed buystop @ 1.41637, SL @ 1.40485, Target @ 1.43505. Comments Pls

Author:	rosst [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Seems right but CSS is red and the lines are far apart. They could just spike up to your entry and continue down - also the info page shows Euro heading down and AUD heading up - but the entry seems correct according to the rules...

Author:	kwanann [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Actually it doesn't matter the system. I mentioned the going home strategy in the high probability trades section. We have bob's system here, and foxie over the other side. There will usually be something that works and some that doesn't, no point bragging about it. What works today can simply fail to work tomorrow. The important thing is consistency, it must work most of the time and get you in a nett profit position. and honestly no system can do that ALL the time, it's up to the trader to decide the next move based on his experience and systems he knows of. A system that works with a trending market will screw up big time in a ranging market an vice versa. And no system will work when central banks decide to do something no one expects. That said I remember reading in darkstar's comment about forex, something along these lines Forex players comprises central banks, market makers and retail traders. Central banks follow policy and they have the ability to move the market in ways nobody can foresee. Market makers will typically take one side of the trade based on what they predict the news to be. If it works to their advantage they will milk it for all it's worth. If it doesn't then the position is quickly unwound and the opposite position is taken up. Retail traders.. Well nobody cares 2 hoots about them. What every system does is try to predict their moves based on past data, that is why sometimes people must override the system because something else is driving the move and the system doesn't apply anymore (sounds familiar?)

Author:	kwanann [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
kundanketki wrote:Price above 240 MA, RSI Flattening up. Placed buystop @ 1.41637, SL @ 1.40485, Target @ 1.43505. Comments Pls Nzd and aid strengthening be careful

Author:	Pedigree [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fx8000 wrote: The answer to your question is in the third paragraph from the bottom of this article from FF. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/econ ... t-rates-qe Quote : In an act clearly inspired by the Bank's new boss, the MPC said "the implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy". The main thrust of this article is that "the markets" (whoever that refers to) expected a drop in rates which would have caused a drop in GBP that, as we know, would have gone on for days if not weeks. Well, nothing like that happened so why the response? In fact, should not the exact opposite effect have been expected? This nonsensical response of price to non-events happens all the time and to accept some such irrational, half-baked explanation for it benefits no one.

Author:	kundanketki [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:37 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Many Thanks Kwanann and Rosst for your insights..

Author:	fx800 [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:06 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Pedigree wrote: fx8000 wrote: The answer to your question is in the third paragraph from the bottom of this article from FF. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/econ ... t-rates-qe Quote : In an act clearly inspired by the Bank's new boss, the MPC said "the implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy". The main thrust of this article is that "the markets" (whoever that refers to) expected a drop in rates which would have caused a drop in GBP that, as we know, would have gone on for days if not weeks. Well, nothing like that happened so why the response? In fact, should not the exact opposite effect have been expected? This nonsensical response of price to non-events happens all the time and to accept some such irrational, half-baked explanation for it benefits no one. Please re-read the article or the one on BBC NEWS WEB PAGE. The market expected a rate RISE (NOT DROP) in the not too distant future, hence this was priced in. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23177463 When the MPC suggested any talk of rate rise is premature, the market reacted. Read the articles more than once if you have to. From you postings, I am certain your comprehension of English is more than proficient. The explanation is neither irrational nor half-baked as you put it. If any one disagrees with my interpretation of the two articles mentioned, please comment. Like Bob said, Prince C going blah blah blah and the market reacted.

Author:	Pedigree [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fx8000 wrote: Pedigree wrote: fx8000 wrote: The answer to your question is in the third paragraph from the bottom of this article from FF. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/econ ... t-rates-qe Quote : In an act clearly inspired by the Bank's new boss, the MPC said "the implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy". The main thrust of this article is that "the markets" (whoever that refers to) expected a drop in rates which would have caused a drop in GBP that, as we know, would have gone on for days if not weeks. Well, nothing like that happened so why the response? In fact, should not the exact opposite effect have been expected? This nonsensical response of price to non-events happens all the time and to accept some such irrational, half-baked explanation for it benefits no one. Please re-read the article or the one on BBC NEWS WEB PAGE. The market expected a rate RISE (NOT DROP) in the not too distant future, hence this was priced in. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23177463 When the MPC suggested any talk of rate rise is premature, the market reacted. Read the articles more than once if you have to. From you postings, I am certain your comprehension of English is more than proficient. If any one disagrees with my interpretation of the two articles mentioned, please comment. Like Bob said, Prince C going blah blah blah and the market reacted. You are correct fx8000 in your interpretation of the articles. I'm just not sure that this accounts for the aggressive moves we saw. The truth I must admit is that after several years of trying to make sense of fundamentals, I am no longer prepared to spend time "following" them. I suppose that should, in effect, disqualify me from any further debates concerning them.

Author:	fx800 [ Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:48 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Pedigree wrote: fx8000 wrote: Pedigree wrote: fx8000 wrote: The answer to your question is in the third paragraph from the bottom of this article from FF. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/econ ... t-rates-qe Quote : In an act clearly inspired by the Bank's new boss, the MPC said "the implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy". The main thrust of this article is that "the markets" (whoever that refers to) expected a drop in rates which would have caused a drop in GBP that, as we know, would have gone on for days if not weeks. Well, nothing like that happened so why the response? In fact, should not the exact opposite effect have been expected? This nonsensical response of price to non-events happens all the time and to accept some such irrational, half-baked explanation for it benefits no one. Please re-read the article or the one on BBC NEWS WEB PAGE. The market expected a rate RISE (NOT DROP) in the not too distant future, hence this was priced in. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23177463 When the MPC suggested any talk of rate rise is premature, the market reacted. Read the articles more than once if you have to. From you postings, I am certain your comprehension of English is more than proficient. If any one disagrees with my interpretation of the two articles mentioned, please comment. Like Bob said, Prince C going blah blah blah and the market reacted. You are correct fx8000 in your interpretation of the articles. I'm just not sure that this accounts for the aggressive moves we saw. The truth I must admit is that after several years of trying to make sense of fundamentals, I am no longer prepared to spend time "following" them. I suppose that should, in effect, disqualify me from any further debates concerning them. QUOTE : I'm just not sure that this accounts for the aggressive moves we saw. No one will ever know why the market moved so sharply after the news. However, that is different from saying the market expected a rate cut rather than a rate rise and why did the GBP fall rather than doing the opposite. You just got the interest rate thingy the wrong way round, that's why. Do your research first before posting please. I am not saying I never make mistakes, but when I do, I would put my hands up and say, sorry I got it wrong this time.

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