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| 10.4 A Complete System https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1481 |
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| Author: | pips400 [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Hi Kundan, I can see what you are trying to do, but I would be cautious. Firstly with 10.4 the trend is determined by the 240MA, but I also use trendlines and CSS Info to help determine long or short bias. You have a stochastic on your chart which is moving up from oversold which is contra to your short position. There is a heafty bullish RRT just before the pinbar. The markets are really jumpy right now, and this chart is a good example, no real momentum in either direction. So looking at this pair there's a lot of confusion and even though you're right to identify a slightly bearish bias on the Daily, any trade on this pair is going to be a really bumpy ride. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Thank you AUD and NZD for your moves today. I get to walk away with a profit this week. It was only 3% but with covering those SL hits earlier in the week. I am happy. Dang wild market up then down then up then down spike, spike. Wild week. See you guys on Monday. |
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| Author: | kundanketki [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Thanks mate for showing things i was not aware of. Will take a note of these points. Liked your signature " Trade the Edge Not the moment". So true to become pro trader. Kundan |
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| Author: | rosst [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Yes - thank you AUD! Have a good weekend |
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| Author: | Staedtler [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
all the technical's went out the window this week. 10.5 says one thing, the market says another |
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| Author: | VirtualFM [ Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Well, I think nothing will significantly change in the next minutes so I am commenting on my results right now. So, this week was an hell of a ride, huh? I'm very happy to see so many people complaining. No, calm down!, I'm not happy because you are loosing money, I am happy because I can see I am not doing nothing so incredibly stupid anymore! But in the end it was not so bad after all. Let's see: I started pretty well on Monday, recovering the DD from last week and not doing anything really stupid. Then Tuesday was OK, I don't even know how it happened because no-one was commenting anything on the forums! Then by the end of that day (and continuing on Wednesday) I freaked out! You see, among the general "positions that go wrong" panorama, I had an old position from last week on EURNZD, buying... as it was above MA240 and RSI was on the bottom, so I figured it would go up after that "W" on Thu/Fri... but didn't! "Why were you stressed with it?", you may ask, "You should had a SL at MA240 and out of that long ago, with a small loss..." Yeah, true, but I don't like to put SL so close, so when the price is too close to the MA240 I usually put SL on D3, which is usually safe enough for not being hit and safe enough for not loosing so much. But EURNZD was not getting back on track and even if it was not even close to DS3 I forgot how huge the volatility of EURNZD is, so I was already on a DD of 200+ pips on that and suddenly it dropped even further for 350 and on and on (reaching 455 pips on its peak DD). If I closed it by then it would been an huge loss (at least psychologically speaking). If I hedged it it would be an even more idiotic idea. So, I figured that now RSI was on bottom and decided to add buys instead! I remember seeing Jem doing it and figured that by doing this I wouldn't exactly need to recover 400 pips... I would only need to recover 200 to be break even. As it was going up and CSS turned green I added even more buys. It felt a bit Martingaleish, but I was not doubling lots and realized that each time I added a buy, I would need less and less recovery pips. I ended recovering everything on that trade (well, by the end of it they were 6 or 7 trades already!) by WS1, on Wednesday, adding a few pips of profit per trade as a compensation for all the stress that thing caused! (I can see now that I could have them all get to my original TP and I would be a millionaire by now!!! So, Wednesday was a good profit day. And since that trick worked, I started doing it on other trades as well, to get the hang of it. So whenever a trade was going on the wrong direction, I added to it as soon as it seemed it was starting to go in the good direction again. Then I calculated an average TP from all the open trades by the scientifically accurate method of eye-balling it This worked throughout the rest of Wednesday and Thursday, and as such Wednesday got a good 13% increase of my balance and Thursday was also reaching 13% at some point... but this implied much more screentime than I was used to, and suddenly I was caught by JPY hiccup strenght and USD weakness and my hands were full of trades and a margin call was arriving. I fought a valiant battle against it and won (sweating under an available margin of 19€!) selling some positions and rearranging TPs, which was crucial for EURCAD, but couldn't avoid it some hours later. So, Thursday went from a 13% increase to a 1.14% decrease in balance and with a DD that reached 60%. In short, Friday was a struggle to get back on track and had much more care with adding trades. I still had some losses form black Thursday (as I called it!) but managed to get most back, and even if I still have now a DD of 13% I think it's controlled, with the exception of some open "buys" on USDCAD that don't look any good. Hope I didn't bore you to death with my remarks, here's the pic: |
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| Author: | BadassUA [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 5:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Hi. Nice post. Thanks! But what I see is you do the first and biggest mistake of Forex: you add to losing position Today you are lucky, but tomorrow - all positions could hit SL Just my 2 cents. Good Luck! |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Actually recovery trading back into the trend is a very common practise in Forex. The big boys use multiple positions all the time. If you get good at it you save yourself a a ton of SL and profit greatly. yes you get the occasional bigger loss but the vast majority of time you can make your multiple positions winners. you must know what the trend is and get back into the trend. If you are really good you can catch the retraces and get out of a bad trade with a break even. I have been doing mutiple level trading for over 5 years and have developed the skill to trade that way. The hardest method of trading is the one in one out trading method. It is the hardest method to learn and is why most forex traders are not consistant winners over a long period. Reentering the trend with multiple positions is the most profitable method of trading Forex. Anyways good luck. |
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| Author: | BadassUA [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
Agree. But if a trader is really good - he will not put himself in a position to open such trades to recover Anyway - thanks for such great forum and for this wonderful topic. I always thought forexfactory was always the best - I was wrong Sorry for my English |
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| Author: | garyfritz [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.4 A Complete System |
VFM, I agree you got **lucky**. Trading multiple positions is fine, as Bob said, but you made several serious mistakes: Holding onto a position because you don't want to admit you're wrong and take the loss is a good way to blow your account. The market doesn't always oblige by turning around to rescue you. This time it worked, but that's a dangerous practice. You should have an exit level in mind when you enter the trade, and you should stick with that. Limit your losses from any one trade. If you were flirting with an MC, then in addition to not limiting the risk on your positions (by exiting when they go a certain amount against you), you are also trading TOO LARGE. Making 13% a day doesn't do you any good if you blow up the account the next day. How many times has Bob said "trade to trade another day" ?? You WILL have strings of losses, it WILL happen, so you need to trade so you can SURVIVE those losses. Keep your size small enough, and your position risk small enough, so your worst-case losses are limited to much less than what would cause an MC. A single day's trading should never risk more than a set small amount -- maybe 5% or 10% of your account. You should NEVER be able to drive yourself into MC because a few trades went against you, because they WILL. Keep your sizes smaller, and exit your losers, so your losses are contained. |
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