The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:20 pm

dudest » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:25 am wrote:
dudest » Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:39 pm wrote:I think EURAUD is setting up for a fall

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Change of tact on this one! That looks like a rising wedge (longs)
And if the looks of GBPNZD and GBPAUD are anything to go by, NZD and AUD may be poised for a drop

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20150323_euraud_h1_failed_wedge_sr_longs_end.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:45 pm

Wisznu » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:25 pm wrote:Seems like GU is ready to reverse.

Wants to trap volume a little longer

20150323_gbpusd_h4_longs_still_tv.png

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Post by **drunka** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 5:34 pm

today's trade

Wisznu · Post by **Wisznu** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:39 pm

Hi Dudest,

These two were good examples of abc? Just tryin to get it right.

maperdel · Post by **maperdel** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:45 pm

What do you guys think?

NZDCADH1.png

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:49 am

dudest » Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:25 am wrote:
...

And if the looks of GBPNZD and GBPAUD are anything to go by, NZD and AUD may be poised for a drop

...

Total #FAIL !

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:53 am

maperdel » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:45 am wrote:What do you guys think?

Hey maperdel,

Saw it do that late yesterday and thought it would 'M' (short)

Looking at it this morning, totally looks like a rising wedge (long) [ am buying it myself ]

I could be very wrong though, best to go with your own plan

20150324_nzdcad_h1_rising_wedge_at_yearly_highs_long.png

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leeeta · Post by **leeeta** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:08 am

I saw the abc pattern on GA yesterday and the "M" at NZDCad, seems like fox is craftier than we thot.
ended both trades with small pips. Expecting more but....

question now is how do we know the validity or strength of the M,Ws and the abc to a certain degree?

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:55 am

leeeta » Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:08 am wrote:I saw the abc pattern on GA yesterday and the "M" at NZDCad, seems like fox is craftier than we thot.
ended both trades with small pips. Expecting more but....

question now is how do we know the validity or strength of the M,Ws and the abc to a certain degree?

Hey Leeeta,

You ended both trades in the green, that's what matters :hi:

IMHO, the point is to trade what you see, and with quality + quantity chart time, it becomes gut instinct [ spotting patterns forming + trading them + knowing when they are going good (stack) or very wrong (bail) ]

A big mistake would be to assume that patterns are set in stone (sure to work out as we intend) and therefore throw trade management out the window. The Fox, though crafty, is not God. He has limited tools and resources; things don't always go according to his initial plans, he has to improvise / workaround sometimes to achieve his goals. So he may have intended to SHORT price, but <a factor not wholly in his control> forces him to put that plan on hold and keeps price moving up till he can get another chance to do what he wanted in the first place.

Being able to switch sides when called for by what we're seeing in front of us is a totally necessary skill

Cheers

Captain Jack » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:11 am wrote:We were looking at AUDNZD the other day and I took a position that was stopped out for around a $2.5k loss... on the post I mentioned that I was setting a tight stop due to the fact I thought price may push lower again. When it did, I was stopped out for a small loss. When price dropped, I took another position when the nice pin to the low appeared. We have spoken about the Fox "reselling" his story if he doesn't get enough takers the 1st time around. I think this has happened and I have taken what was given and closed out those trades for a $6k gain. Price gaped up today, trapping the traders below before they could even bat an eye.

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Take what's given....

CJ

Captain Jack » Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:06 am wrote:
Pins, RR tracks and fast movement, thanks to the "news"....... what more do you need to make this your full time profession???

It's there on every pair on almost every day... in one form or the other....

When the pins change direction, it's time for the trades to change directions....

CJ

Captain Jack » Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:26 am wrote:Ever wonder why news events ALWAYS begin with a stop hunt? Do you know how many break out systems there are in use today?

News events and the resulting PA are not random events. They are well known to the Fox, ahead of time. They know where the range traders as well as others have placed thier buy and sell stops and they will clear those stops, each way, before taking price back to the same level, continuing the trend or the other way on a reversal.

This is when they balance the books and take their profits and they don't like company when they do it.

The only "random" events that I know of are the ones similar to when a large trader wishes to place a trade for, lets say a 1000 shares of stock, but keys it in as a million shares.... as has happened in the past, causing ripples across markets. And then the FOX goes "WTF!!"

Be prepared when looking at the setups, and check to see if there is a news event that will tie into the completion of the patterns.

CJ

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:21 am

Wisznu » Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:39 pm wrote:Hi Dudest,

These two were good examples of abc? Just tryin to get it right.

Hi Wisznu,

For me, the one above is NOT a good one, while the one below looks great

PS: I learned this pattern from the pdf of CJ's posts in the BARF thread.

Below are three charts that became my reference ( notes in white are mine (for my understanding), they were not in original charts )

Cheers

dd7_d.png

dd8_d.png

dd9_d.png

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