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| Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=4910 |
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| Author: | MathiasJ [ Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Hi! I just posted some results and setfiles in my thread that could actually have been posted here... but now you can find it here: http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 55#p150055 BR Mathias |
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| Author: | DavidB [ Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Same thing happened to me couple of years ago and cost me a small fortune. When you select a small group of top performers from a large sample of tests, chances are you selected the statistical outliers. In other words: these were outperforming by mere chance. The more rigorous your filtering is, the higher the risk of survivorship bias. Remedy: reserve 3 months to make your first selection, then allow another 2 months to test the top performers. Then start trading small lots, grdually increase when performance is as expected. The markets are patient, you? https://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23 ... ship-bias/ |
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| Author: | MathiasJ [ Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Well stated! |
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| Author: | tomele [ Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Hi. Brilliant analysis and article. It sums up why we should forward test our strategies for a very long time and not abandon the "losers" to fast. Probabilities are a long term game. And as markets change, statistics do. |
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| Author: | TraderJoeForex [ Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Time for a quick update: Here are my live results since 14th November. I have aimed to close flat on Fridays but had to keep a couple of positions open this past weekend (EURAUD and GBPAUD) which were in heavy drawdown and preventing Friday's basket from closing. I kept these open as my analysis suggested that they would retrace this week and they did enough to close with a small loss. Looking at the profit/loss for each of the pairs I am quite comfortable with the 15pairs I chose to run. There are no extreme losers here which is interesting. This week so far just one new basket close then and have a feeling it may be a bit slower from here until January. I will keep this running though for the next couple of weeks and then probably call it a day until after Christmas. For me this set does have it's frustrations seemingly entering just before a retrace and initially going into drawdown but that is the price of waiting for three timeframes to line up. Fortunately there seems to be enough momentum at certain points during the week to always bring a profit close and that is why I am not using SL or news filter with this strategy as that will be a sure way to turn this profitable strategy into an unprofitable one. The way I am managing risk is using a small account size. I have continued testing many different approaches on demo including some non-basket approaches and have nothing that improves on this M5H1D1 set yet for a small account. I have had some success using H4 and H1 HGI as a trigger just in the direction on D1 diff and delta and am using these to add some extra trades alongside my manual D1 trading and I do look forward to trying some of the set files posted by others here that also look promising. My time online is going to be limited in December as I have a lot going on including a house move so will aim now to report back in with anything new in January. Wishing everyone a joyful festive season and end to this year. |
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| Author: | lionsden [ Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Excellent Read and recommendation! thanks |
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| Author: | lionsden [ Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
All, FYI....I just got this message from my broker concerning Margins. Please note margin requirements will be adjusted after 16:00 GMT on December 2nd, 2016 due to the Italian Referendum. Please ensure that you have enough available margin to support your open positions. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact an FXCM representative. Thanks Lionsden |
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| Author: | Gertje [ Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Just to add to the confusion, here are my results for the month of November, trading a live cent account. The indi at the right top says 37-ish % profit, this is from the current balance. It compares to almost 60% from the starting balance. I used the H4/H1 set, and added the D1 today to see if it counters the high DD that occures now and then. . |
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| Author: | Gertje [ Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
Just to impress; I traded appr. 1.800 full lots during the month of November..... |
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| Author: | trader689 [ Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Basket Trading BALUDA'S CSS Crossovers |
I can also report good results with this set, (zennor's H1/H4) seems a consistent performer, but like you said sometimes DD is high. please keep us in the loop regarding the D1 filter trader modification
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