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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  fridayStreet [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Thanks, I actually suddenly had a thought that might be the case after posting. I did have an indicator that allowed setting the offset for the pivots. Was wondering if it was worthwhile worrying about, but as you say seems to not be too much of an issue.

Thanks again
Paul
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Bob

Just to clarify on this issue of the STO. Let's say it's pinned really low. Price crosses below a RN and it's below the DP. Is that a valid short? Or do you want to see the STO coming down from higher levels.

Thanks

cmeade2
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
cmeade2 wrote:Bob

Just to clarify on this issue of the STO. Let's say it's pinned really low. Price crosses below a RN and it's below the DP. Is that a valid short? Or do you want to see the STO coming down from higher levels.

Thanks

cmeade2
The best trades are sells as it is coming down and buys as it is going up. The biggest part of the sell run will be when it is less than 20 and the biggest moves of buy run will be above 80. HOW BIG? There is no indie to tell how long a price will run but the CSS info page should help you decide. Are the two currencies on opposite sides of the 0 line or are they angling away from each other?

If you know the fundamentals then you can rest that it will run. The AUD and NZD have had some good runs this summer. The fundamentals in China economy is slowing down to a slower growth rate, which means the AUD needs to seek a new level of price range. The AUD also cut interest rates which helps bring it down. The NZD just had a bad product recall. That will affect it for a while and a slowdown in the AUD economy will slow down the NZD economy. Knowing these kind of fundamentals will cause me to hold those trades longer than I normally would or play them for a higher pip run or more entrances.

If I dont now the fundamentals behind a move then I will take my profits and run and look for a reentrance. The one thing I have added are the MA EAs. Now you dont have to think about it, just let the MA line determine when to take you out. Sometimes it will work in your favor sometimes is wont. That is trading.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I just past increasing my account by 10% today since starting to use 10.6 on Thurs. 8-15. I am trading small lots at four cents per 1000 of account. During this time my DD has stayed under 3% at all times. So I am consistantly hitting that 1%+ average every day. YEAH :)

That comes down to 106 winners 26 losers, average win 33 pips average loss 22 pips. Total pips 2940 pips in 9.5 days. I can live with that. :) I may increase my lot size to .06 per thousand starting in Sept.

The vast majority of my trades have been following the CSS 10.4 page using the daily summary. They have been gbp buys and aud sells.The last two days I have done well following the AUD, NZD sells, GBP buys, USD buys, and EUR. buys. EUR and USD have been angling up and the AUD, NZD have been angling down.
Author:  garyfritz [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:That comes down to 106 winners 26 losers, average win 33 pips average loss 22 pips. Total pips 2940 pips in 9.5 days. I can live with that. :) I may increase my lot size to .06 per thousand starting in Sept.
That's fantastic, Bob. That says you're averaging (106*33-26*22)/(106+26) = over 22 pips PER TRADE. On average, every time you pull the trigger you bank 22 pips. That's incredible.

Though now that I look at it... I've been experimenting with plain 10.4 trades for the last week. I've placed 10 trades, including several real stinkers. And at the moment my account is up $170, trading 0.1 lots -- so I'm averaging 17 pips per trade!!! :o :o

I like to look at Kelly values to see how much to risk. Your Kelly is AvgTrade / AvgWin = 22 / 33 = 0.66. Trading at 5% of Kelly is fairly conservative, and that would be risking 3.3% of your account per trade. (Risking 3.3% is more than some people are used to, but with results like you're getting it makes sense.) If you trade 0.06 per $k, risking an average of 22 pips (your average loss size), you're risking 22 * .06/.1 = $13.20 per $k, or 1.32%. So that's REAL conservative. Just the way you like it. :D But if you continue to get results like that, I'd personally say you could very comfortably increase to 0.1 per $k.
spotdespot wrote:It is just broker GMT offset differences Paul - you are probably on a GMT+2/3 broker - Bob's is GMT. I don't think any of the "fixes" for the difference ever really worked but I don't think it's a big deal personally.
This is why I have trouble believing the DP/etc. If every broker gives a different result, why should we assume every one is equally valid? Either there is one right answer, and everybody else's answer is WRONG and misleading, or there IS no one right answer (the DP has no significance) and we should ignore it.

Personally I suspect the DP does have significance, but only if it's calculated the way most traders calculate it. And most serious traders aren't using braindead buggy Empty4 to calculate their pivots. We should be using the DP value that other platforms use -- with 5 D1 candles and 5*6=30 H4 candles per week. Which is what Bob's using (GMT+0) and it seems to work for him.
Author:  art [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
hi bob just trying to catch up, re the sl tp screen, when you get a signal from the stoch, and check the info page, do you then open the sl tp screen to place the trades, using the scripts and ea's after checking the pivots etc, so you have two charts of the same currency pair open, do i have that right? cheers
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
art wrote:hi bob just trying to catch up, re the sl tp screen, when you get a signal from the stoch, and check the info page, do you then open the sl tp screen to place the trades, using the scripts and ea's after checking the pivots etc, so you have two charts of the same currency pair open, do i have that right? cheers
you can do that or run two Empty4 with one SL page and one entrance page. I am still doing my close in the middle of the session with profitable trades most of the time. That is my normal practice in trading. What I do is just switch screens and put the SL page up after I set my pending trade. I could put this all one page but that leaves to a cluttered screen. All you have to do is add the MA and you got it but that makes it hard to teach and read. I like a clean screen so I can also follow price action on the screen when I trade.

So to answer your question I set my pending trades on the screen then if I want to use the SL page I just switch screens after I set my trade. I then can run the SL screen with the EA I choose on it. When the trade is done I can go back to the regular screen
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
garyfritz wrote:
nanningbob wrote:That comes down to 106 winners 26 losers, average win 33 pips average loss 22 pips. Total pips 2940 pips in 9.5 days. I can live with that. :) I may increase my lot size to .06 per thousand starting in Sept.
That's fantastic, Bob. That says you're averaging (106*33-26*22)/(106+26) = over 22 pips PER TRADE. On average, every time you pull the trigger you bank 22 pips. That's incredible.

Though now that I look at it... I've been experimenting with plain 10.4 trades for the last week. I've placed 10 trades, including several real stinkers. And at the moment my account is up $170, trading 0.1 lots -- so I'm averaging 17 pips per trade!!! :o :o

I like to look at Kelly values to see how much to risk. Your Kelly is AvgTrade / AvgWin = 22 / 33 = 0.66. Trading at 5% of Kelly is fairly conservative, and that would be risking 3.3% of your account per trade. (Risking 3.3% is more than some people are used to, but with results like you're getting it makes sense.) If you trade 0.06 per $k, risking an average of 22 pips (your average loss size), you're risking 22 * .06/.1 = $13.20 per $k, or 1.32%. So that's REAL conservative. Just the way you like it. :D But if you continue to get results like that, I'd personally say you could very comfortably increase to 0.1 per $k.
spotdespot wrote:It is just broker GMT offset differences Paul - you are probably on a GMT+2/3 broker - Bob's is GMT. I don't think any of the "fixes" for the difference ever really worked but I don't think it's a big deal personally.
This is why I have trouble believing the DP/etc. If every broker gives a different result, why should we assume every one is equally valid? Either there is one right answer, and everybody else's answer is WRONG and misleading, or there IS no one right answer (the DP has no significance) and we should ignore it.

Personally I suspect the DP does have significance, but only if it's calculated the way most traders calculate it. And most serious traders aren't using braindead buggy Empty4 to calculate their pivots. We should be using the DP value that other platforms use -- with 5 D1 candles and 5*6=30 H4 candles per week. Which is what Bob's using (GMT+0) and it seems to work for him.
Thanks for your analysis. I have never tried that formula but as you know I am a preacher of conservative trading. ALways keeps me in the game no matter what price action does. I do take my licks now and then but overall I keep myself profitable.

The pivot differences between brokers has been debated many times. I also think this affects every indie used but we just dont notice the difference as much since most indies use more than 1 as the MA. The more you average the more closely they will resemble each other.

However, using the blue line at xxx.00 now makes a level playing field. Everyone can have those same lines. It will be interesting to see if we come up with universal indicator that measures PA based with those lines. Dont ask me how havent thought about it that long but it sure would make for an interesting discussion on how to do that.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fridayStreet wrote:Hi Bob,

Just wanted to clarify on the chfjpy as my blue line is below the DP and the only blue line above it is well above it. see attached.

Cheers
Paul
2013-08-28_1758.png
Looks like that trade is going nowhere. If I dont see some action during the JPY session I may close that one out.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I see some nice retracements so going back into the trend today?? aud, nzd sells angling down on CSS usd, euro, chf angling up on CSS. gbp continue to angle down?? CAD maybe angling up?? JPY flattened at the 0 line. I smell a good day coming up. probably stink up the place but here we go.
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