The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[peranders]

Something I have learned the hard way on my own, is always to mind a gap when it happens.
It will close a.s.a.p., so if you see a gap at least from 1h and upwards (also check with another chart online, so it isn't the price feed from your broker), is that when gaps occur, what appear to be strange things will happen.

Thinking about Sympathy's quote.
Equilibrium is king in nature, hence there's predators and there's prey (the wolf is a better predator than the fox).

Something to also take into consideration is margin and lotsize positioning.
It varies from pair to pair, depending on the volatility. Nanningbob has written extensively about the different "normal" 24 pairs volatility. Ranging from low to medium to high. Not all pairs are equal, it helps not getting unnecessarily stopped out due to insufficient wiggle room.

[tk28]

CJs thread is a textbook, when you read it over and over you will understand what he is trying to explain :hi: :hi: . they always move price to a common ground. . think about that statement

could you show some points of understanding?

[BobbyT]

Howdy all.
I've been lurking in this thread for a few weeks now trying to digest some of the concepts put forth by CJ and supported/implemented by many fellow traders here.
I have been focusing on just four pairs to try and keep the learning curve at a decent rate. I must admit, though I am struggling somewhat to make any consistent results I am getting blinded by the light on occasion. So much so that I can't see at all for a day or two after Though that said, I'm a very new hat to naked trading (and most types of trading in general).
So to help myself and if I'm lucky, help others in the forum, here are some charts for what i see happening next week. Please excuse the state of the charts. As I said, I'm still learning and as such am nursing a stupid amount of trades that I stupidly didn't close but instead kept adding to them
Thankfully they are all small and it's demo money so it's not as bad as it could be

AUDUSD: I'm long on this for at least the first half of the week. The 2nd leg of a nice W on H4 seems to have formed though it will probably fake out no higher than 0.80 in line with trapping volume. It will possibly then head south to test then break the lower trend line that has been in place since mid-April. This will also continue the M forming on D1 just above the February-April range. Price may be heading back to 0.755 with a pause around 0.77 though can't really say when.

CADCHF: I see two possibilities with the same outcome here. 1)price will creep up Monday to form the 3rd day up and test the range from earlier in the week a bit more. Then head south and test that lower range line at around 0.756 (it has been tested and failed miserably on Thursday. 2) price will head south to this line straight away before heading to the north side of the trading range over the next few weeks at 0.79ish. The only concer I have here is the pretty M that has just completed on D1. If the lower range line doesn't hold this week it's a long way down to the bottom of the black-swan event back in Jan.

EURJPY: A couple of scenarios here too. There was a nice M form at the top of the Feb range and there have been 3/4 levels up on H4. If the middle of the M is broken price may continue to 131.5 area. If that middle peak holds it becomes a W and price could continue up nicely for some time with a nice bit of chop at 136. Personally I think I'll be putting my (demo) money on H4 M and see if I can find the 131.5 zone around the end of the week. Of course if that zone is broken then the next bottleneck will kick in around 128-129 (there's quite a bit of noise there in an M within a W on D1)

GPBNZD: Will 'definitely' be short by the end of the week. There is an epic pin formed on Friday which tested the highs from August/September last year and Jan/Feb/March this year too. H4 looks like a skinny M could form Monday/Tuesday (similar to the one that formed on H1 over Asian/UK session on Friday). There have also been 3 levels up on H4 over the past 3 weeks. Regardless of weather this pattern forms or not I think price will drop to 2.03 area, bounce then if the Kiwis are feeling particularly brash then head on down to 2.0 and if that happens then....well...they must be charging a lot for that powdered milk.

Anyway that does it for me. Feel free to tear these ideas to shreds. It's the best way to learn what you're doing wrong

Thanks for reading
BobbyT

[intcust]

been gone for a while but see a lot of the same things. Everyone is trying to find the top or bottom of a move counting on a reversal. That is what they want play the pull backs in the middle and nail them

[BobbyT]

So I'm guessing I'm waaaaay off then
Just trying to get a feel for where it is I'm going wrong. I mean, yeah we need to trade what we see and not what we think but we still need to establish a bias right? Or how can we have a plan for trade entry/exit?
Or havve I wandered way off the beaten track somewhere (which is very very likley )

Cheers,
BobbyT

[sympathy]

CJs thread is a textbook, when you read it over and over you will understand what he is trying to explain :hi: :hi: . they always move price to a common ground. . think about that statement

could you show some points of understanding?

Ok lets put it this way. Am on mobile now i would have explain with a chart sorry for that. From cjs point of view, the fox always push price to a common ground. It mean that they normally presents themself at an area where they have visited before. If you scrollback your chart backward on 15mins tf you will see there tracks expacially level one nd three.draw a line from those areas nd see what hapens in feature. THEY ARE COMMON GROUNDS. Areas they have visited before is still the area they will push price in feature.

[ZumZum]

been gone for a while but see a lot of the same things. Everyone is trying to find the top or bottom of a move counting on a reversal. That is what they want play the pull backs in the middle and nail them

Hey Incust,

Forgive my ignorance, but as a newbie I'm a bit lost in what I'm doing wrong? If I understand correctly,from your point of view instead of following the trend and entering on retracements in the direction of it, we are trying to catch the reversals? But reading CJ it seemed to me that reversal is what we should be looking for? :

Thanks,
Arthur

[BobbyT]

Anyone care to share some thoughts on GBPNZD.
550 odd pips today alone with a number of days over the past few weeks hitting ADR in the asian session.

Wierd (from a noob perspective)

[ZumZum]

been gone for a while but see a lot of the same things. Everyone is trying to find the top or bottom of a move counting on a reversal. That is what they want play the pull backs in the middle and nail them

Hey Incust,

Forgive my ignorance, but as a newbie I'm a bit lost in what I'm doing wrong? If I understand correctly,from your point of view instead of following the trend and entering on retracements in the direction of it, we are trying to catch the reversals? But reading CJ it seemed to me that reversal is what we should be looking for? :

Thanks,
Arthur

Hi Arthur, this would be my opinion as well. I think we are looking for reversal signals, so as to maximise our profit ratios. Maybe the difficulty comes with being able to recognize where price is at in the bigger picture, and being able to identify the levels correctly. Simply looking for a W or an M, without correctly understanding the bigger picture would be pointless, unless you are trying to scalp a few pips off some RRT's etc. In terms of joining the pullbacks, I think there is definitely value in trying to join the trend up or down after a level 1 pullback (if correctly identified).

Is that what you are meaning Incust?

Thanks for your view Adp. It's not so hard to identify the direction, at least I hope so. The difficulty for me comes to understand the intention. Only by counting 3 pushes often gives me a false impression. Maybe cause I count it wrongly or maybe cause fox tend to push it further quite often. I feel trapped, deceived by fox at times and it should be vice versa

Cheers,
Arthur

[Lowphat]

gonna scalp or trail the bounce off of supply with super tight stops.