The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[peranders]

Anyone care to share some thoughts on GBPNZD.
550 odd pips today alone with a number of days over the past few weeks hitting ADR in the asian session.

Wierd (from a noob perspective)

I thought it looked like a good trade when I posted on Thursday (possible BARF, still think it is possible).
And anyone who closed shop for the weekend made a few bucks on both crosses I mentioned.

The BIG move today was due to that ANZ hinted about a possible rate cut from RBNZ.
PRC cut its rate so it should have gone the other way today if it wasn't for ANZ jawboning and
carry trades unwinding. Money going in to bonds instead.

RBNZ Wheeler is up tomorrow, he's a jawboner (NZD is too high etc.). Talk is a tiny bit cheaper than QE to devaluate.
On Wednesday BOE Carney is up.

As far as EUR cross goes, QE is around this time of month. The pending Grexit is always a shadow.
Grece are supposed to pay IMF tomorrow.

Don't know it if helps you, but I hope it brings some clarity.

[BobbyT]

Thanks peranders.
With BoE holding the interest rate and the rumoura that definately (for me anyway) gives the fox enough fuel to go a little crazy.
If this high holds we could see some really big moves upwards. Check out the weekly on GN. This pair has been 'ranging' for years. I guess I should learn to shelf the idea of directional bias and just try and read the charts
I might focus more on dip to dip or rally to rally trading instead of trying to get in at level1/3 and hold. It gets me into trouble a lot of the time.
On a seperate note, is there a place online thats good for these non-calander news events (such ANZ mouthing off). It's always good to jnow these things

[dudest]

Hi peeps,

EURJPY at a great place for shorts

'c' at BRN 135.00

[dudest]

Hi Dudest.

I'm interested in the emboldened text above. I am currently trading with larger lots (a lot size of somewhere between 1 and 4 for each trade, and then maybe adding one of two more as the trade continues to move in my direction), but I am just trying to evaluate if actually this is the best way forward. Let's say for a modest account size of around $5k.

I downloaded your script a while ago for stacking trades, and have been testing it in demo. I'm considering giving it a go, but using smaller lot sizes (between 0.10 and 1), as maybe this would provide a bit more protection if price moves against me, compared to just starting the trade with a larger lot size. I wonder how this would affect the level of profit too?

I'm curious.. what made you decide to change to the smaller lot sizes? and do you think stacking trades is a better idea generally than just starting a trade off with a larger lot size and then maybe adding to it manually as it progresses? (I don't usually leave trades unattended, so am able to check regularly throughout the day).

I have had my fair share of margin calls and huge losses, particularly when I started trading and took much bigger risks than I should have (without really understanding what I now understand about how the market is manipulated and how to trade with that knowledge), but I am now thinking that my trading style is radically different from the past, and that as a result, as long as I am continuing to learn and successfully putting it into practice (as much as possible), that entering into relatively low risk trades (in the pins on the RRT's, leg C of an 'ABC' etc) using higher lots has become much safer.

At the same time though I am aware that larger lots can equal large losses, and if something such as a spike were to occur, which it often does.. (I'm not using any kind of stop loss, which minimizes the risk here), or if I were to enter a wrong trade, which happens regularly too (although I am usually at the laptop ready to close the trade out quickly, minimizing damage), trading with an initial larger lot size could possibly have some downfalls... hence looking at stacking with lower lot sizes.

Thanks

Hey adp!

Any method that works for you will make you money. Whether large lots at the beginning or small lots stacked alot

I use both, only of late I have been using the latter (small lots stacked alot) because:

=> after Jan 15 (SNB Black Thursday), volatility is back in FULL force. 200-500 pips a day now is normal. And there are many times I am early (earlier than I like) into a trade. So in order to endure the DD smaller lots have been working better

=> noticed that even when using smaller stacked lots, I can still double an a/c every other week (and sometimes every week) and at the end of the day, the idea is to make money, so it's a win-win ( if I'm wrong: not too much loss/DD :: if I'm right, still good gains )

So really, whichever is good for (your taste + reading of Fox tracks) will do

[dudest]

Hi peeps,

EURJPY at a great place for shorts

'c' at BRN 135.00

20150512_eurjpy_h4_abc_at_BRN_shorts.png

.

[dudest]

Take on GBPCHF

20150512_gbpchf_h4_abcs_galore.png

.

[seanyd]

Hi peeps,

EURJPY at a great place for shorts

'c' at BRN 135.00

.

Yeah and EU looks the same hope I got this right, and UChf I think the other way.

Screenshot (193).png

Screenshot (194).png

[Lowphat]

Take on GBPCHF


.

So short bias after the triple top finish with the expectation of it potentially reaching the bottom C which may end up being near bottom A? and with a dash of fibs and whole numbers for good mesasure

[dudest]

Take on GBPCHF


.

So short bias after the triple top finish with the expectation of it potentially reaching the bottom C which may end up being near bottom A? and with a dash of fibs and whole numbers for good mesasure

Pretty much

However, the other CHFs are now looking long. Have taken what was given on the GCHF shorts

20150512_audchf_h4_setting_up_abc_for_longs.png

20150512_cadchf_h4_setting_up_abc_for_longs.png

.

[seanyd]

Hmm this looks interesting too

Screenshot (195).png