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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  nicoacademia [ Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
anyway i'm out of all my positions before that post was done and done for the day.
Author:  nanningbob [ Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I have some positions left to carry over. Mainly becuase the S/R areas just arent breaking so until something comes along to break them I am expecting a bounce. SO will stay with those trades. NZD should break back down. We will see next week. Man I hope there is just a little more life in the market. Some of these pairs just roll over and died this week. Still banked some profit, so cant complain. Night.
Author:  nicoacademia [ Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nights bob. :)

yeah. i think......that fed shit keeping things within the S/Rs.

man. i can't imagine the tsunami that's gonna hit. 80meter wave up... 80meter wave down...
when market cycles speed up...its about dropping timeframes. a 15-30second chart would be good to use as the 1 minute was too slow during the data this week. by the time trendlines got broken its like 30-40pips past it. and then this recent rumour of summers from obama. they're definitely working the rumour mill.

monday will start out at an ok pace. some light european data in european session(EUR) n us data in us session(USD) but nothing that should stir the jimmies.
tuesday AUD mpc then lull until european open GBP into EUR into USD. pace and volatility should be bang on here (unless they have some serious kinder surprise on wednesday that lulls n kills it here if not...expect a fair strength push around)
wednesday is the big big run in. AUD data in asian session as light warm up. into european session GBP data into USD data.... this should lull and kill out or get pushed around to position for the FOMC... 2pm onwards to 2.30pm eastern... then the tsunami hits... if its convincingly one way news...then after the tsunami...will be the main push (USD strength for taper above expectation amount). then expect thursday asian session to pick up on what happened. european session on thursday may lull it (or may not depending how shocking the statement is). at this point econo data of other countries doesn't matter until the US session more US data should continue the direction of wednesday's move.

this will give you a feel for the whole week.

it really depends how unexpected the statement is. despite being econs graduate and blah it doesn't matter. but how the market sets up pre-announcement into the actual announcement and the deviation from expectation(1-meh, 2-mild, 3-oh ok, 4-yup they're stepping it up, 5-DAMN DAMN DAMN) and it will play accordingly.

after statement next 2 days US stuff will push. only at the end we have kuroda speaking on friday. who knows. more USDJPY rising. or not.

it's really to just trade whats in front of you at each moment in the week.
the market draws its S/R out, squeezes itself into a corner, freaks out, then takes the proper direction.
Author:  nicoacademia [ Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
i don't use the CSS anymore. (just 1 of my multitude of variations)
but i just look at whether stuff are above or below the weekly pivot for bias.
and after that daily pivot. (i also use BB/MAs/S&Rs: ive moved away from oscillators amazingly)

i only trade limited pairs involving AUD,NZD,EUR,GBP,USD,JPY.

and i still miss moves when i can't see more than 6 charts at a time. but im okay i guess i've come to accept i'm not omniscient(nor should i keep trying to be).
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Here is the NZD following the AUD graphic again. This time 4H chart. Time to short the NZD???
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
here is the same thing but on a daily CSS
Author:  Cyprustrader [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
That CSS chart reminded me of a strategy I studied a few years ago based on Nzd and Aud hedging, when the Usd pairs moved apart then as here, go long Aud/Usd, short Nzd/Usd. When they come back into line, one or both will pay out and you have hedged so minimising your risk to USD moves!
The other consideration is swap rates of course, used to be Aud long only to get positive swaps all the time. Gbp and Eur same thing but interest rates are so low that it is not worthwhile for the carry trade element.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Cyprustrader wrote:That CSS chart reminded me of a strategy I studied a few years ago based on Nzd and Aud hedging, when the Usd pairs moved apart then as here, go long Aud/Usd, short Nzd/Usd. When they come back into line, one or both will pay out and you have hedged so minimising your risk to USD moves!
The other consideration is swap rates of course, used to be Aud long only to get positive swaps all the time. Gbp and Eur same thing but interest rates are so low that it is not worthwhile for the carry trade element.
Carry trade used to make me furious. AUD and NZD should be coming down but dont. Never selling them probably a good rule again when interest rates go up. The other strategy dont comprehend very well. To me hedging only works if your trying to protect something, like protecting a winning trade if your away or stopping a losing trade until you can think of what to do about it. Anyway I will be playing NZD short this week and see what happens. I know they are all butting against major R lines so if the AUD goes back down I dont see NZD breaking through at this point. So sell away.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Well here is the news we have been waiting on. I suspect we should see some big gaps come Monday.

The United States and Russia struck a deal Saturday under which Syria will allow its stockpile of chemical weapons to be removed or destroyed by next year — easing a crisis over a threatened American military attack.
Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, announced the deal after a third day of talks in Geneva.
Under the deal, Syria must provide a full catalog of its chemical arsenal within a week and allow United Nations inspectors to start working no later than November. The plan envisions the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons by mid-2014.
Author:  zentauro67 [ Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Here is a dummies version. It takes from 10.5 the basic idea: Only buys above 240, only sells below. No stoch no weekly pivots, no 60 LWMA, nor round numbers. Just the daily pivot in combination with Heiken Ashi.

If your are selling enter when the first red candle close below the daily pivot. Keep the trade until the change of color. (Opossite for buys) Re-enter at any time a red candle close below the daily pivot.

I didn´t want to choose a tricky example taken from a strong trend (where you only have winning trades), but a ordinary medium trend with 240 cross, etc. Applying this simple system you should have 8 winners and only a small loss.

I have seen many systems using Heiken Ashi in combination with moving averages, but no one using the daily pivot. This is a powerful and simple combination. Maybe out of topic here, but I know Bob doesn´t mind (sometimes even encourages) new approaches.
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