mjws00 wrote:Amen. GT3RS has a nice take on this as well. I am never ever using the 240 as a stop. I consider it Bob's failsafe, it keeps rookies out of trouble and gives a super simple and quick ejection seat. Cross here and just get the hell out. Don't second guess, don't think twice, for heaven's sake don't move your stop. Just punch out. Kills a lot of rookie errors.

Sizing for a 300 pip stop when you need 30, is just over caution, but it does lead to very low risk of ruin for a novice. The reality is though, true risk on these trades, Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) even without a stop at all will prove to be good, imho. I'm waiting on big data sets, but see this as a component for 10.4's success shotgun style.

I've only taken the high, RR trades. and short term stats are similar to CJ's over a short time period. That is R:R over 3. 88% hit rate. Profit factor 12.54. I'll post the pic, but I'm a little more private than some about accounts so it needs cleaning. Those numbers are stunning! But the data set is small. CJ has done that over thousands and thousands of trades... I have not.

What it says to me. Is that the foundation is incredibly strong when applied with discretion. I analyze the piss out of my trades, but am not mechanical. I just "feel" it, like getting a read in poker, playing an instrument, playing golf, riding a bike. At some point it becomes instinct, and we can begin to think creatively.

Hilarious part is CJ's got me thinking on deep levels about MM strategy. But they can be exploited very mechanically. Like killing low stakes fishes in poker. Cracks me right up.

Mike

f451 wrote:

fxozgirl wrote:I've started to dabble in some CT trades, trying to keep it simple...took 16 trades in 2 days, 13 winners & 3 SL +2.5% increase in account.


I'm looking for exhaustion into the trend with RSI flat lined at the top (where price is above 240ma) with price closing above WMR1 and looking to ride back 1 level. I'm setting a sell pending at WMR1 and setting a hard TP at WP. SL is at WMR2

Example of a nice Eurgbp retrace last night picked up a handy 52 pips

eurgbph4.png

I think that's fantastic trading. 13/3. One thing I will say, is that both Mike's work here and Captain Jack's thread at the moment are showing the one aspect of Bob 10.4 that has huge scope for improvement - placing stops back at the 240 LWMA and position sizing on that basis is absurdly conservative. One's stop should be placed on the chart at a level where if price gets there, you know the premise behind your trade was wrong. No further. For 13 wins and 3 losses you should be looking at a 20-50% account increase if you are risking 2% a trade. I suggest experimenting in demo with positioning stops behind a sensible recent swing, not the 240 MA.

Yes there is a an inverse correlation between distance from the MA and likelihood of an exhausted trend reversing, but this thread is for advanced trading of 10.4 and I think it's time we started to address the biggest limitation of the method as it stands.

fxozgirl wrote:

Also, I thought the thread was for 10.4 advanced and counter trades, and I was simply trying to show a simplistic CT opportunity that could be taken whilst waiting for the main trend to resume. I apologise for taking up space for non advanced trades.