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| Author: | MurphyMan [ Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
Thanks Bob. We still appreciate your insight & comments. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
Well the USA passed its 1.5 Trillion tax bill. Add to that the 1.5 Trillion needed to cover for lost revenue and 3 Trillion will be added to the world's economy. Watch for the Republicans try to deregulate banking again to remove restrictions placed on real estate loans. Anyway depreciation of the dollar is going to happen again. Since it's the world's currency is still the dollar interest rates will start edging up to control the coming inflation over the next several years. Remember oil prices hitting 140.00 a barrel?? Anyway this will bring back the famous Forex Carry Trade. What's the Carry Trade? The carry trade is a strategy in which traders borrow a currency that has a low interest rate and use the funds to buy a different currency that is paying a higher interest rate. As inflation hits the commodity currencies will raise interest rates mainly AUD and NZD. Borrowers will take out loans from Japan and Switzerland who have record lows in interest rates and deposit in AUD and NZD banks who had the highest rates last time. So my predictions is watch for AUD and NZD strength throughout the next couple of years and play it. Then as the dollar depreciates sell it against CHF, EUR, and GBP. They will have nice runs that you can make money on. Watch your monthly charts and be prepared to close on the peaks and rebuy at the dips GoodLuck. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
I've decided to do some long term trading using my Oanda account. Since I believe the tax cut will depreciate the crap out of the dollar (like Bush tax cuts did) I am going to go with some long term trades and ride this sucker for several years. Similar to what the big banks do. They invest millions and billions into Forex and must always have each currency available for trading. But they will keep some of each but have more Euros than dollars if they think it will appreciate. Funny how they can hedge trade but we USA citizens cant. Anyway I will pop in from time to time and show my long term trades. This is also done best with positive swaps so you gain interest with the long term trades. That is why the AUD and NZD tend to run and run and run. Anyway here are the monthly charts and comments. This is trading long term economic fundamentals with money you dont need to get your hands on for several years. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
Last time the USA did a big tax cut the dollar went on an almost 90% depreciation over six years 2001-2007. It popped in July 2007 (gold buyers thats when you buy gold right now you are wasting your time buying gold) So I'm going to take the ride this time also. When Trump was elected big time traders knew he was going to depreciate the crap out of the dollar so in 2017 it went from its low of the year to the high. It broke the high came back and tested it and started up again. With the passing of the tax cut it will now take a long steady climb until the bubble bursts or they make changes to it over the next several years. For example Reagan passed tax increases and they had a much smaller bubble pop with S&L bubble. Bush did not and they had a big one. We'll see what Congress does over the next couple of years. Anyway for now here is the EUR/USD. You can see the bounce off of the previous high so going to play it and you can see where my trade was placed. This is a long term buy and hold strategy playing long term fundamentals. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
Here is my GBP/USD trade. Here I am anticipating a break through the high and going up, So I am playing the break up past this high. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
To make sure I don't lose money on swaps I am also taking AUD/USD and NZD/USD trades. Both of these countries commodities will be in demand over the next several years as China, Japan, Korea, India, etc. buy their products. Of course N. Korea could play a big role in what happens here however. Anyway playing dollar depreciation with our Asian commodity friends. The AUD broke the previous high, tested it and is going up. The NZD is in a range so I'm good for now and see if it breaks its high later in the year. If you have ever read my CSS threads you know that the NZD follows the AUD almost all the time with some very rare exceptions. But for the next couple of months going with a future break and if not will make some money on it. Happy trading the long term stuff. So far account is up over 10% in 2017 trading this way. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
I couldnt get the first link to work but read the second. I read Maudin often. His wedge may continue again as the dollar depreciates back to the bottom. He is into decades long economics with this stuff. Long term the USA economy is upbeat for this century mainly because of our resources in energy, education,innovation, and free market. But that is more than my lifespan. Short term, Trump administration, we will depreciate the dollar, (its good for real estate investors to rapidly grow the market and then pop it and then grow it and then pop it). |
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| Author: | zyx [ Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
You don’t trade futures at all, right? |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
No. Haven't tried. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Economics |
I have increased my Forex account almost 30% playing USD weakness. I've closed all my long term trades because I have no idea how Trumps tariffs will play on the markets. With news that he has another 30 tariffs planned I decided to drop long term trades. Anyone have ideas what tariffs will do to the Forex markers?? |
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