I thought I would give an example of why I keep rereading CJ's PDF and the 'aha' moment I had this weekend. I promise to stop flogging this hobby horse of mine after this post!
Below is the 3rd chart in the PDF (from page 5). I'm sure you all remember it. There's a lot going on here, but I missed something that becomes obvious once you see it, something that might help with counting pushes and M's.
20150712_0904 Chart 3 page 5.jpg
Below is the same chart with the white text deleted and I've added a few comments myself.
20150712_0828 - Foxy is in the henhouse - Pushes and Lame Ms.jpg
I can honestly say that I do not remember seeing the big red arrow with the words “3 push high” before in my previous readings of the PDF, in fact before this weekend I would have sworn they were not there! I obviously got lost in the comments and didn't look properly at the chart. This chart shows a lot about 3 pushes before consolidation/reversal being a guide, not set in stone.
You can easily see the 3 pushes to the top of the big red arrow, so we are looking for shorts. We then get an M at push 3 BUT look, there are no decent pins in the M. It's a lame M. Foxy isn't leaving any tracks yet. So it's possible/probable there might be another push, so we should just wait and see what happens and wait for foxy to appear.
We get another strong push that watching live you might call push 4, which turns into a stop hunt given it's immediate reversal. And then we get a nice big M forming just above our 3rd push. Foxy is officially in the hen house. Get short on that second leg!
So we have a great example of counting pushes and using M's, and it's on the 5th page. And I haven't appreciated it until now!
The reason why this was an 'aha' moment for me this week was that I traded one of those lame M's without decent pins at what I thought was push 3, with predictable results.
And just to back this up there is another example on page 102 where CJ was explaining why someone's short trade failed. The main reason was that they entered at push 2, but also they traded a lame M – the second leg failed to reach the high with no long pins as CJ points out. 'Aha' again yesterday. Can't unsee that now.
HTF
20150712_0858 Lame M higher TF.jpg
LTF
20150712_0859 Lame M lower TF.jpg
I read all this before but I hadn't “seen” it until experiencing it during trading (at the time I worked out that my failed trade was due to a lame M). Rereading the PDF it now becomes 'aha' obvious and stands out. Now I've “seen” it I can't unsee it.
Hope that helps somebody. Ok, enough from me, I'll stop flogging my “keep re-reading the PDF” hobbyhorse now! Cheers.
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