The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[BenSD]

Okey guys i think i have a solution to better vol indi. Just go to property on the indi and change Numbersofbars to 0(zero) thats all freezing stop if freezing continue then download this other version

[Tomsic]

Hey everyone..

been awhile since i've posted in this thread, but wanted to share a possible trade or two that can be playing out on GU (assuming I got my counts right).

GBPUSDDaily idea.png

Looks like the daily might be forming an ABC at the top here..
I see 3 levels already happened, but we can have one more fake move higher to complete the ABC..

I'll break it down a bit on the lower timeframes..

GBPUSDH4 breakdown.png

The 4H has made 3 levels down since the M at the top, and 2 levels up since the W at the bottom..
One more level up on the 4h would give us level 3 here as well as finish forming the daily ABC..

GBPUSDH1 breakdown.png

The H1 shows the H4 activity under a bit of a microscope..

We can see the W at the bottom.. a level 1 was put in, followed by a stop hunt and a level 2.
Last week was mainly in accumulation mode again.. I'm now anticipating a stop hunt to the down side so they can push it up to level 3 and then start making a move down on the daily (ABC).

NOTE: This is just an idea.. like many ideas it can completely fail, but if it starts playing out as mapped it could be something to trade.. otherwise, it if doesn't do as anticipated, stay away (unless you already have a different scenario mapped out that is working).

[Tomsic]

AUDNZD is another pair that just got my attention..

Looks like a M is being put in on the Daily:

AUDNZDDaily idea.png

Looking at the H4:

AUDNZDH4 breakdown.png

There was a makeshift ABC at the top that only made 2 levels down...
I think this might suggest they need to go back up to get continue building their position..

We had some accumulation followed by 3 levels back up (the 3rd level being an aggressive one suggesting they wanted to get there fast).. looks like a little stop hunting happened after the 3rd aggressive push, hmmm..

AUDNZDH1 breakdown.png

The H1 shows an M at the top followed by 2 levels down.. I'm anticipating a stop hunt in the annotated area before a level 3 down.

Again, just an Idea.. if it plays out as mapped, cool.. if not, find something else that is following your plan

[Tomsic]

Another idea.. (hope you don't see this as spamming)..

GBPCAD:

Daily put in a W followed by 3 pushes up, suggesting we can be at a top now:

GBPCADDaily 3 pushes up.png

4H has an a-b-c forming..
3 pushes followed by a 4th aggressive/over-extended push led to the start of this pattern:

GBPCADH4.png

H1 shows the h4 "b" was formed by an hourly "M"..
if your an aggressive style trader you can try to jump in on the C if we get another push up to that level..

A more conservative style entry can be taken if the C leg does actually drop first.. then we can look for another leg down during today or tomorrow:

GBPCADH1.png

[Occam]

Another idea.. (hope you don't see this as spamming)..


H1 shows the h4 "b" was formed by an hourly "M"..
if your an aggressive style trader you can try to jump in on the C if we get another push up to that level..

A more conservative style entry can be taken if the C leg does actually drop first.. then we can look for another leg down during today or tomorrow:

It's not spamming in my eyes Tomsic, it's good stuff. Good call on the GCAD. It gave a pin on M30 for the aggressive entry short. I was hoping for a second leg M on a lower TF after the M30 pin but it never came, so didn't get an entry. But it's working out as you suggested...

[websie]

If this is your idea of spamming Tomsic, you spam away to your heart's content Great charts, really helping me see those levels. I am looking at GU, to me it looks like it's accumulating at the 2nd push on the H4 and is at the bottom of that accumulation (if there is such a thing) right now. If I am correct then it should now push on up to coincide with the chart and directions you posted.

Edit: it does look as if candles are pinning on H1 and making perhaps a W on the lower tf

[websie]

Re EURGBP (which is now some 127 pips up from when I thought I'd seen the start of the up move) could I please have some critique on these 2 charts. This is the M15 and the H1 of today, hopefully showing the 1st two pushes of the day and the start of the new cycle. I would like to know if this is actually the start of the new cycle of 3 days/levels and if I have even vaguely got it right. Thanks

[Tomsic]

Re EURGBP (which is now some 127 pips up from when I thought I'd seen the start of the up move) could I please have some critique on these 2 charts. This is the M15 and the H1 of today, hopefully showing the 1st two pushes of the day and the start of the new cycle. I would like to know if this is actually the start of the new cycle of 3 days/levels and if I have even vaguely got it right. Thanks

Your count looks good to me. Also, the range on EURGBP was higher than normal (95 pips so far).. to me this signals a Level 1, however, we won't know if it is fake level one or not until level 2 is put in. Meaning, this could just be a Level 1 up before 3 more levels down.. Or it could be start of new 3 day cycle up (the range is a good sign that it actually could be a legit level 1 up, imo)..

The important part to me is we have a probable Level 1 up put in today, which means tomorrow we can make a low risk trade plan to go long if we see some pins or RRTs in a support area

So, If it will be a legit level 1.. I would look for buy RRTs or Pins around the 0.7000 level (as of now), or depending on what Tokyo does tonight, a stop hunt below Tokyo Lows could also be a sign to go up.

However, if it will be a fake Level 1.. I would look for sell RRTs or Pins just above the 0.7060 Level (see H4 for a good reason to pick this level)..

these are just areas I would look for clues, though anything can happen and I can't predict what will happen next with 100% certainty.

[Tomsic]

[/quote]

It's not spamming in my eyes Tomsic, it's good stuff. Good call on the GCAD. It gave a pin on M30 for the aggressive entry short. I was hoping for a second leg M on a lower TF after the M30 pin but it never came, so didn't get an entry. But it's working out as you suggested...[/quote]

Thanks for pointing that out..

I missed that pin too (sleeping), but not sure I would have traded it anyway.. I would have been a bit cautious of the big uptrend GBPCAD is in, so the conservative entry would be better for me now, but you're right, it did turn out to be good for +140 pips

I also missed noticing an ABC sell on the AUDNZD as I posted those charts.. that seemed to be the catalyst for the level 3 down so we never got the stop hunt in the area I was looking at.

Got some longs in the GU pins today though.. not sure they will hold..
If not, I'll take a small loss and eye 1.5450 area to load up again if we get the candle patterns there.

Also.. I got a short on the UJ ABC on the 15m today (clear as day pattern).. Adjusted my SL WAYYY too soon though and got out at BE before the 60 pips drop

Oh well.. the good news is these setups never end, so no point getting frustrated over missed opportunities or poorly managed trades.. the next good one is always right around the corner

[websie]

Thanks for the analysis Tomsic, yes I see the reason on H4. I will be watching